What happened at the East coast GRC?

Hi..!

The margin of victory of East coast GRC comes as a surprise. LSS was thrown into EC GRC (instead of Aljunied) because he wanted a "safe" seat. The margin of victory is a surprise to many including me!

The WP team was relatively unknown and their campaign was also low key compared to Holland Bukit timah or Marine Parade or even Tampines. The PAP campaign was well done.

Internally the PAP was of the view that they will get a 65% majority. My own model gave them 62%. In fact one reason why ST never covered the campaign, was that there was no "interest" as LSS will cruise through.

Yet a relatively unknown WP team with average campaign has scared the shit of the PAP.

Can anyone explain what caused the poor performance in East coast GRC?

Dear Seren


Hmmmm this is one GRC your models did not predict :_)) Question if you ran all the opposition versus PAP models and turned it into a WP versus PAP model pre GE what would the result have been. I was expectiong 42% but not 45% personally so I was off by abt three



Locke

serenditpity said:

Hi..!

The margin of victory of East coast GRC comes as a surprise. LSS was thrown into EC GRC (instead of Aljunied) because he wanted a "safe" seat. The margin of victory is a surprise to many including me!

The WP team was relatively unknown and their campaign was also low key compared to Holland Bukit timah or Marine Parade or even Tampines. The PAP campaign was well done.

Internally the PAP was of the view that they will get a 65% majority. My own model gave them 62%. In fact one reason why ST never covered the campaign, was that there was no "interest" as LSS will cruise through.

Yet a relatively unknown WP team with average campaign has scared the shit of the PAP.

Can anyone explain what caused the poor performance in East coast GRC?

Click to expand...

NTUC and 12 SE (Social Enterprises) were supposedly behind LSS. 2 x bonuses given separetly spread over 6 mths given to NTUC peasants. Many never bought it. But balless civil servants, PAP party cadres & PA doggies managed to nick it through.

WP to win Hougang SMC, Joo Chiat SMC, Aljunied GRC, East Coast GRC. Total 12 seats This was my prediction of WP chances on 06-05-2011, 12.55 am in this forum.

I was very close. No surprise about East Coast GRC for me because (a) WP is going there for the second time and has been working the ground relatively diligently since 2006. (b) Lim Swee Say is hardly a popular minister. (c) Everyone underestimated the extent of the Malay vote swing this election (except me of course).

Joo Chiat also. PAP's model did not predict that Eastern Singapore is in open rebellion.

LSS = Lim Super Snake

Call me a super optimist, but judging by the turnout at Bedok Stadium, I thought the WP would WIN by a landslide. The crowd was baying for Mr Better Cheaper, Faster's blood.

GOD IS MY DOG said:

LSS = Lim Super Snake

Click to expand...

The Clown more or less contributed to the less than ideal percentage.

The one who said that he smiled whenever he looked at his CPF statement. Of course he can afford to smile given the amount of insane $$$$ that he is getting for doing almost nothing.

seriously looking at the trend, PAP will really get a shock at the next election if they carry on with their current policies without taking care of its citizen

imperialarms said:

Joo Chiat also. PAP's model did not predict that Eastern Singapore is in open rebellion.

Click to expand...

Indeed, why did the entire East Coast rise up against the PAP?

The effect of Hougang/Aljunied spilling over is one reason.

Another could be the sheer concentration of the least popular ministers - MBT, WKS, RL, NEH and my personal favourite HK movie baddie lookalike Admiral 'Chased out of Condo' Lui
A friend ventured that it was because there are more native born Singaporeans there than elsewhere. Any truth to that?

I have always maintained that my model has limitations. I predicted that PAP will win, but not with this reduced margin.

lockeliberal said:

Dear Seren


Hmmmm this is one GRC your models did not predict :_)) Question if you ran all the opposition versus PAP models and turned it into a WP versus PAP model pre GE what would the result have been. I was expectiong 42% but not 45% personally so I was off by abt three



Locke

Click to expand...

people in bedok respect jayakumar when he was the MHA. i also respect him last time!!! but now this idiot LSS asking people to take lower pay and work harder, u think people will vote for him? i think next GE, he will be voted out!!! i know quite a lot those staying in bedok voted for WP. i think no matter whoever pap come also out!!! try put MBT or KHAW at bedok. kekeke. bedok also got residents buay song!!! en bloc 4 blocks at bedok south ave 3 and rent it out to foreigners!!! those blk very near MRT and market and hawkers centre!!! i think now those mother fucker panic liao. no matter how you move those oppositions supporters also useless, u move to other constituency become other constituency burden!!! hahahaha!!! see what happened to aljunied??? certain part were original WP hougang, but was re draw into aljunied GRC. now when WP go to fight aljunied with LTK all just awaken and vote for WP!!!! another factor is the serangoon garden dormitory issue, remember how xiahlang and arrogant the pap mps are??? what do the right thing lah. KNNBCCB!!! now aljunied people also do the right thing by voting you out even you pap ajunied grc mps not happy!!! :oIo:

Dear Seren

Your model gave the PAP a swing of 66 to 60 , what made you think that the East Coast PAP team would be immune to that national swing ? I have some idea from the ground but I would like to hear your views.


Locke

serenditpity said:

I have always maintained that my model has limitations. I predicted that PAP will win, but not with this reduced margin.

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The WP team at EC was not really that bad. They had gerald giam and glenda han, both I thot were able to get their points across. The PAP side consisted of pple like Raymond, LeeYS who were not natural rally speakers and more rote-learning bureaucrats. Also, WP has a brand name which probably appealed at EC as well. LSS wud never be popular with his "every month when I see my CPF, I'm very happy" silly insensitive statements.

More like a rising tide lifts all boats effect, from the groundswell for the WP.

Swee Say and Vivian are very popular in Holland Bukit Timah. Without Swee Say, Vivian still pulled in 60%. With Swee Say, HBT could have hit 65-75%.

Bedok has always been an opposition hotbed. Even a madman whose family stopped him from campaigning scored 30% against Jayakumar. LSS came to help win East Coast and he did.

Safe seat my foot.

serenditpity said:

Hi..!

The margin of victory of East coast GRC comes as a surprise. LSS was thrown into EC GRC (instead of Aljunied) because he wanted a "safe" seat. The margin of victory is a surprise to many including me!

The WP team was relatively unknown and their campaign was also low key compared to Holland Bukit timah or Marine Parade or even Tampines. The PAP campaign was well done.

Internally the PAP was of the view that they will get a 65% majority. My own model gave them 62%. In fact one reason why ST never covered the campaign, was that there was no "interest" as LSS will cruise through.

Yet a relatively unknown WP team with average campaign has scared the shit of the PAP.

Can anyone explain what caused the poor performance in East coast GRC?

Click to expand...

kingrant said:

The WP team at EC was not really that bad. They had gerald giam and glenda han, both I thot were able to get their points across. The PAP side consisted of pple like Raymond, LeeYS who were not natural rally speakers and more rote-learning bureaucrats. Also, WP has a brand name which probably appealed at EC as well. LSS wud never be popular with his "every month when I see my CPF, I'm very happy" silly insensitive statements.

More like a rising tide lifts all boats effect, from the groundswell for the WP.

Click to expand...

WP will do well to start their grassroots activities in East Coast GRC. Similar to what Sylvia Lim did in Aljunied after GE2006 by combing all the blocks.

Given the history of gerrymandering and the extremely close call of Joo Chiat. As expectd, and very likely, PAP will merge Joo Chiat into either Marine Parade or East Coast. My take is Marine Parade as the support for WP is real whereas in Marine Parade, the swing of votes was primarily due to the battle of the "Mei Mei"s and this won't be a strong factor in GE 2016.

Glenda Han may not be a good choice for the East Coast GRC team as she is based in HK and flying back just for elections will not be viewed favorably by voters.

As Joo Chiat will be gone, it may make sense to have JJ Yee replace Glenda and another stronger leader replace Eric Tan in GE 2016. Hopefully, with the momentum that WP have gained, they can attract a higher caliber of candidate, similar to Chen Show Mao perhaps, to lead the team.

The WP EC team swing from 37% up to 45% are obviously contributed by Gerald Giam and Glenda Han. Glenda looked a silly girl like TPL in 2006, but at least she stuck to scrip and didn't say anything controversial or ridiculous (another good example of WP discipline). This year, she looks and speaks with so much more maturity as serious MP calibre.

Forvendet said:

The WP EC team swing from 37% up to 45% are obviously contributed by Gerald Giam and Glenda Han. Glenda looked a silly girl like TPL in 2006, but at least she stuck to scrip and didn't say anything controversial or ridiculous (another good example of WP discipline). This year, she looks and speaks with so much more maturity as serious MP calibre.

Click to expand...

I maintain that Glenda will be a liability for WP team simply because she is based in HK and flies in for Elections. With the string slate of candidates, I'm sure they can put someone better there. Her reputation as a "Uncle Killer" will also be diminished by 2016 as she will be 39 then and an aunty herself :-)

WP should connect with the people in the private estates too. They were unable to talk to the residents as most would not come out because of watchful eyes in the neighbourhood with resident porlumpar contractors, FT and property agents. But the support for WP from some households are there, but silent. The support is mainly due to increase cost of living and FTs all over the island.

I suggest that WP can organize collections for charity like the salvation army, for clothings, recycling etc. So that they can get a chance to meet the residents there.

Malay support may be changing due to the Ah Tiong factor, some told me they dont feel at home anymore. Go for a cup of coffee also feel like drinking in a foreign land. Some also told me that they dulan the foreign worker quota; in that it is compulsory to employ ah tiong in malay and indian resturants (I was quite surprised to hear this, but I do witness alot of ah tiong in such resturants).

nato33 said:

WP will do well to start their grassroots activities in East Coast GRC. Similar to what Sylvia Lim did in Aljunied after GE2006 by combing all the blocks.

Given the history of gerrymandering and the extremely close call of Joo Chiat. As expectd, and very likely, PAP will merge Joo Chiat into either Marine Parade or East Coast. My take is Marine Parade as the support for WP is real whereas in Marine Parade, the swing of votes was primarily due to the battle of the "Mei Mei"s and this won't be a strong factor in GE 2016.

Glenda Han may not be a good choice for the East Coast GRC team as she is based in HK and flying back just for elections will not be viewed favorably by voters.

As Joo Chiat will be gone, it may make sense to have JJ Yee replace Glenda and another stronger leader replace Eric Tan in GE 2016. Hopefully, with the momentum that WP have gained, they can attract a higher caliber of candidate, similar to Chen Show Mao perhaps, to lead the team.

Click to expand...

hmm, could it be a spillover from Aljunied? (I dun think ur model accounts for that component) I thought one thing that was interesting abt the general WP strategy was that it contested seats which surrounded Aljunied GRC. While most of the resources are poured into the said GRC, there is bound to be a spillover effect with residents from the surrounding areas going to Aljunied rallies, as well as the attention of voters recognizing the importance of the Aljunied race, which will be further heightened by their geographical proximity to Aljunied. (As for East Coast, you have to factor in the introduction of a new PAP candidate, and the superior stature of the WP candidates there as compared to the other WP teams, it was almost akin to a B plus team) Conversely, the rallies were held at the different GRCs every night, but always at a location that is close to a component of Aljunied GRC, so indirectly, it is an incessant nine day campaign that took place within and around the priced target.

Take this and compare it with the NSP model, which waged it's bets all over the roulette table, thereby not able to take hold of the advantages of geographical proximity.

Next for the WP, I hope they will further emanate the Aljunied centric strategy and expand the center into East Coast, Nee Soon and maybe even Moulmein Kallang next election, and field B teams in the peripheral areas around these GRCs. But that will mean stepping upon other's toes, but I think u are now THE OPPOSITION - why do u need to give two hoots about the other minnows.