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What went terribly wrong in Holland-BT for the best qualified opposit team in the GE

scroobal

Alfrescian
Loyal
This is now the new buzz and questions are plenty. Here is the outcome of the breakfast session post GE.

As expected there were number of schools thought with some having some very strong positions. But first the background;

The team was made of Vincent Wijeyasingha, Tan Jee Say, Ang Yong Guan and Michelle Lee. Everyone one of them was amply qualified with sterling qualities and not one of them was a passenger in terms of some minority crap associated with GRC. They spoke well, they grabbed the attention of Singaporeans from day one and had an excellent logistical and social media support from SDP. Everyone of their formal and informal comunications went well even when compared to the Behemoth PAP. The presence of Prof Paul Tambyah from NUH and his excellent speech. What went wrong and terribly wrong as the margin was 20% when VB had a perception and popularity issue with YOG, homelessness and price of meals albatrosses hanging his neck.

3 strong school of thoughts

1) Holland-BT is where the rich, famous, and the movers and shakers reside. They may be 100% behind this team, see all the logic behind the arguments and may even be friends with them, but practically might have been a factor. These people traditionally really on access to power. They rely on the PAP to approve their development plans, their business models, the building approval plans with mansion, access driveways etc. They need a govt team in residence as their MP to get the approvals etc. Vincent and team are practically useless to them. These are not heartlanders. They are not your usual salaried staff. They know that Town councils are either non existent in their ward or meaningless.

2) SDP Banner - The worse performing in previous GEs and with a negative legacy of not connecting with the people. As one pundit expressed - "the moment Alec Tok returned such a poor result knowing his credentials, the writing was one the wall". In fact all the well regarded candidates who joined SDP but were not associated with SDP such as Teo Soh Lung performed badly. I understand that Ms Teo cried and was upset that she left for home with close confidants. It is common knowledge that SDP was not the first choice as a party and in 3 of the cases were turned down by other opposition parties. SDP saving grace was having RP who performed badly as expected but both SDP and RP were buoyed by negative sentiments against the PAP. In comparison, SPP in Bishen-TP did very well.

3) The Gay / Sex with Boys smear. They outing of VW plus the video with the idiotic Ravi must have taken its toll. It video became viral before and after VB comment. The social media backlash did not seem to have VB who already is not popular have clashed with PAP Lily Neo and with some many negatives. The religious / conservative might have dealt a significant blow.

So which school of thought prevails or is it a combination of a number of factors. These are however quite conclusive
- the best slate of opposition candidates of qualification and performance
- they did badly when you compare the fact that every single one of WP candidates out performed them including some NSP candidates facing string PAP wards with entrenched sr cabinet figures.

Bear in mind that the PAP strategy team felt that the seat was under threat that they removed Lim Swee Say from it. It left a PAP team that was not even sino-centric which is not the normal PAP model and something which falls as a cardinal sin in party politics.

Do note that Dr Chee and the SDP followed the book on political campaigning and communication and completely differed from usual and past ethos of confrontational and PAP centric messaging.
 

Bigfuck

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Re: What went terribly wrong in Holland-BT for the best qualified opposit team in the

csj carries a negative brandname
 

wikiphile

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
Re: What went terribly wrong in Holland-BT for the best qualified opposit team in the

Dear Scroobal,

What is the take on WP now that they have won 6 seats in the north-east heartlands? If this GE serves as any indications, the most logical step for WP to expand their presence will be the following

1. North East Singapore - Punggol-Pasir Ris
2. East Singapore - East Coast/Marine Parade

despite the fact that many wards from the old Cheng San/Eunos GRC were carved out and absorbed into the AMK GRC, there still exists quite a bit of the WP supporters as shown in GE 2006. This fact is probably not lost on the WP cadre too.
 

jw5

Moderator
Moderator
Loyal
Re: What went terribly wrong in Holland-BT for the best qualified opposit team in the

1. Probably a combination of the 3 factors stated.

2. Of all the candidates, I like Michelle Lee the most. Her short speech after the resuts were announced was excellent.

3. Was Crybaby upturn the downturn removed from this grc to protect him? Or was he removed from this grc to protect East Coast and Raymond Lim?
East Coast was the worst performing grc among the pap victories, such that one of the WP candidates is up for the last NCMP seat.
Reasons probably a combination of a strong WP team and disdain for ministars who do little.
 

scroobal

Alfrescian
Loyal
Re: What went terribly wrong in Holland-BT for the best qualified opposit team in the

Will cover in separate thread bro.
Dear Scroobal,

What is the take on WP now that they have won 6 seats in the north-east heartlands? If this GE serves as any indications, the most logical step for WP to expand their presence will be the following

1. North East Singapore - Punggol-Pasir Ris
2. East Singapore - East Coast/Marine Parade

despite the fact that many wards from the old Cheng San/Eunos GRC were carved out and absorbed into the AMK GRC, there still exists quite a bit of the WP supporters as shown in GE 2006. This fact is probably not lost on the WP cadre too.
 

scroobal

Alfrescian
Loyal
Re: What went terribly wrong in Holland-BT for the best qualified opposit team in the

Michelle is one who qualifies as a complete person. See her CV. She has seen the world and is a match to 90% of the chaps in the upper echelons of the govt high echelons.

PAP inside is that he cannot afford to take the gamble and also number 2 in party power and influence. They also removed Yeo Guat Kwang from Aljunied who is faction leader of Chinese educated. PAP will continue to rely on the Chinese ed for their grassroots support. Many are aware of the goodies that they throw at Malays but not aware of the way they have to take care of the Chinese ed. The Chinese Language Teachers Union is actually the strongest party faction in PAP with Yeo heading it. They sponsor Lim Swee Say and vice versa.

1. Probably a combination of the 3 factors stated.

2. Of all the candidates, I like Michelle Lee the most. Her short speech after the resuts were announced was excellent.

3. Was Crybaby upturn the downturn removed from this grc to protect him? Or was he removed from this grc to protect East Coast and Raymond Lim?
East Coast was the worst performing grc among the pap victories, such that one of the WP candidates is up for the last NCMP seat.
Reasons probably a combination of a strong WP team and disdain for ministars who do little.
 

Bigfuck

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Re: What went terribly wrong in Holland-BT for the best qualified opposit team in the

the way they have to take care of the Chinese ed. The Chinese Language Teachers Union is actually the strongest party faction in PAP with Yeo heading it. They sponsor Lim Swee Say and vice versa.

Chinese ed are stupid as Singapore is becoming English ed. Chinese ed believe they are chinese but are substandard to China these days.
 

scroobal

Alfrescian
Loyal
Re: What went terribly wrong in Holland-BT for the best qualified opposit team in the

PAP genesis has been sino centric from day one as they had the ground and were heavily involved with the Middle Road gang. It is difficult to wean from it because the entire grassroots organisational structure is built around. The towkays continue to be their sponsors. A similar model is now operating with the Malay. PAP will continue to play communal politics because they have been drinking in this fountain for so long.

GCT despite his mother being a Chinese Language Teacher did make an attempt and appoint a non-chinese as CCC chairman but it was a one-off. These guys are now the puppet masters and trying to move into a space the old man had traditionally held and they deferred to.

Their poster child is Lim Swee Say and despite all his antics, the rest can't touch him.


Chinese ed are stupid as Singapore is becoming English ed. Chinese ed believe they are chinese but are substandard to China these days.
 
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lockeliberal

Alfrescian
Loyal
Re: What went terribly wrong in Holland-BT for the best qualified opposit team in the

Dear Scroo

Perhaps but as Michelle admitted it they scored in the Private Housing areas but badly amongst the HDB heartlands. That again is strange as the SDP message of both min wage, healthcare etc etc should resonate strongly. I would argue a combination of the following.

1. No consistent door to door walking over a period of at least a decade. Whatever is said abt AJ, it took the WP years of walking, selling hammer, door to door before it even swung. Gomez and his idea that Internet rules all can go back to academia.

2. The party consists of English Educated LIberals with no heart for grunt work grass roots campaigning. I am impressed with Nicole she lost in M Parade but what she can do to for the people who voted for her including using her time for tution she has promised to do so.

3. They have to knock the doors which they will need to do from next week.




Locke
 

Rogue Trader

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Re: What went terribly wrong in Holland-BT for the best qualified opposit team in the

The Holland-BT middle class were the only ones Tan Jee Say could "sell" his National Regeneration Plan to. The heartlanders would never have listened.

It's a crying shame. My friends and I have read Tan JS's plan and agree it would be a good direction for the economy.
 

lockeliberal

Alfrescian
Loyal
Re: What went terribly wrong in Holland-BT for the best qualified opposit team in the

Dear Rogue

The SDP would have been the only party willing to allow him to use his plan as a PLATFORM for himself. Any other party would have borrowed bits pieces. The problem with Jee Say is that he believes that the Opposition owes him something and should listen to him.




Locke



The Holland-BT middle class were the only ones Tan Jee Say could "sell" his National Regeneration Plan to. The heartlanders would never have listened.

It's a crying shame. My friends and I have read Tan JS's plan and agree it would be a good direction for the economy.
 

leetahbah

Alfrescian
Loyal
Re: What went terribly wrong

Good points above, why does SDP choose a rich man GRC like Holland-Bukit Timah?

Talk about what went right first:

Low Thia Khiang - confident, smiles, never angry, pass on Hougang to most capable person and not wife or son or relative

Yaw Shin Leong - smiles, pleasant

Chen Show Mao - never angry, smiles, confident

This WP team in video sees PAP truck come by, smiles and wave, this is positive, people associate this scene as positive, makes it pleasant to vote for them


What went wrong:

Tan Jee Say - His speech always sounds angry, the first sign of this anger is when he was unveiled. In that he said "gratitude is not servitude..". The way he say this, his tone sounds angry. His subsequent speeches sounds angry too. How will anyone vote for a person when he sounds angry, very simple, once he is MP, the timid would not dare approach him because his tone sounds angry.. For this, Tan Jee Say lost votes because of his tone.

Second thing about Tan Jee Say is, he don't really need to give this "gratitude is not servitude" comment. Did Tan Jee Say meant to say he got the scholarship not on merit? If yes, then he need to give this "gratitude is not servitude" talk. If he got the scholarship based on merit, he don't need to give this talk. This comment makes him looks like he was given the scholarship because of some connection and not merit.

Ang Yong Guan - If he does not sounds angry, he speaks like a used car sales man trying to close a quick deal. It is only the way he speaks, the content is fine and he is a highly qualified person. Some voters are not comfortable with people who talk like used car sales man.

Michelle Lee - She is quite alright, she smiles a lot which is good. Can`t really find any fault with her.

Vincent Wijeyasingha - He speaks well and don`t sound angry. Only thing that come to mind is during the TV debate, he was sneaking around attacking Tharma. Some people may not be comfortable with these sneak attacks.


So this team lose to Vivian Balakrishnan. What went right for Vivian Balakrishnan? There was this video where Vivian Balakrishnan is seen giving either Tan Jee Say or Ang Yong Guan a pat on the back. This is impresive and will truly swing votes in Vivian Balakrishnan favour.


Chiam See Tong - He only went for a GRC when he is like close to his deathbed. Bishan-Toa Payoh resident will not be impressed with that. This is like PM Lee saying sorry 2 days before election. Compare to Low Thia Khiang, Low went for a GRC when he is still healthy and able. That`s why he won. Second problem with Chaim, passing on to your wife won`t work, Chaim needs to learn from Low Thia Khiang.

Lian Chiam - This woman seems to have no brain which was confirmed during the TV debate. Keep saying my husband this, my husband that, who really give a shit about your husband.. At least Tin Peh Ling is better, she don`t say my husband good friend with PM Lee, my husband that..

Nicole Seah - She started very well, confident, plenty of smiles, answer question well. Come rally day, she started going down. She give angry speeches. She attacks the PM etc. Her face look strained, no more confidence, no more smiles - lose votes for this. Then out of desperation, she apologized for MM Lee comments. That was unnecessary, lose votes for desperation.

Then Nicole Seah pulls one of the common cons pulled by women - cry. That don't win votes, that will cost you votes. Does anyone really believe that Nicole cry because of those people who are poor or have suffered? Of course not. If Nicole really cares, she won`t be contesting elections! Nicole will be helping the poor on her own accord or with a social organization and not as a candidate for general elections. That crying stunt cost Nicole dearly, people see through her con and she lost votes for pulling the crying trick.

Lastly, one thing to note, having celebrity status does not equal votes. Having more likes in Facebook than MM Lee does not equal votes.

Lesson learnt: Be confident, always smiles, never give an angry speech, never attack your opponents.






 

SpareTyre

Alfrescian
Loyal
Re: What went terribly wrong in Holland-BT for the best qualified opposit team in the

My takeaways from conversations with candidates, SDP org team, and personal observations and guesses were:

1. Rich votes for them approached the high 40% mark. Failed to get the heartland vote. Consensus that SDP themes works best with the wealthy, TJS said it was a shame that the poor whom they are trying to help most are the ones who didn't give them support

2. Must boost its Sino-friendly profile - will continue to be unelectable until this is fixed. Along with possibly CSJ question, this is SDP's greatest weakness.

3. Election shows ability to mobilise committed minority support....strong Malay and Indian presence. SDP may be main beneficiary of RP collapse as perception that NSP is WP Lite. SDP/RP is for those who think in English and WP/NSP is for those who think in Chinese. The few truly bilingual like Nicole, Ang, Hazel will straddle both sides. Outliers are whats needed to win that decisive few percentages...ie, Pritam/Gerald/Sylvia for WP and a couple LTK Lites for SDP. Show Mao would have been a great SDP get, but until they gain an electoral track record, the CSMs of this world will continue to favour WP.

4. After this election, candidates are convinced of the value of walking the ground.

5. Said nothing about the SDP banner, but my surmise is that other than setting up their own party, CSJ may also consider stepping down as one alternative. If the VW team leaves, the SDP cupboard is bare anyway

6. Feeling is that the gay issue made some difference, but it will go away in next few years as Singaporeans get used to the idea and young voters come onstream.
 
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Rogue Trader

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Re: What went terribly wrong in Holland-BT for the best qualified opposit team in the

I tend to agree. Tan Jee Say is an exceptional talent but he is hardly a politician yet. The same vein as his ex boss Goh keng swee. I recall watching one of his rally speeches, when the supporters were chanting 'SDP SDP SDP', he glared at the crowd to shut them up. I was drinking coffee that time and some of it came out of my nose.

Instead of just tackling bread and butter issues, Mr Tan would be a vital opposition MP for repairing and re-steering the economy. I really hope he stays in the scene.




Wow I just heard Sylvia Lim saying 'thank you voters' on the loudspeaker :smile:
 

mei mei

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Re: What went terribly wrong in Holland-BT for the best qualified opposit team in the

Must boost its Sino-friendly profile - will continue to be unelectable until this is fixed. Along with possibly CSJ question, this is SDP's greatest weakness.

Didn't CSJ hokkein speech video gone viral? Didn't their candidates campaign in chinese? Why is there a distinction in the opposition camp on english or chinese thinking when PAP can win without this distinction. Why does JBJ win Anson? Maybe it has nothing to with sino-friendly or otherwise.
 

SpareTyre

Alfrescian
Loyal
Re: What went terribly wrong

Nicole Seah - She started very well, confident, plenty of smiles, answer question well. Come rally day, she started going down. She give angry speeches. She attacks the PM etc. Her face look strained, no more confidence, no more smiles - lose votes for this. Then out of desperation, she apologized for MM Lee comments. That was unnecessary, lose votes for desperation.

Then Nicole Seah pulls one of the common cons pulled by women - cry. That don't win votes, that will cost you votes. Does anyone really believe that Nicole cry because of those people who are poor or have suffered? Of course not. If Nicole really cares, she won`t be contesting elections! Nicole will be helping the poor on her own accord or with a social organization and not as a candidate for general elections. That crying stunt cost Nicole dearly, people see through her con and she lost votes for pulling the crying trick.

Lastly, one thing to note, having celebrity status does not equal votes. Having more likes in Facebook than MM Lee does not equal votes.

Lesson learnt: Be confident, always smiles, never give an angry speech, never attack your opponents.


The 17% vote swing in Marine Parade refutes your points on Nicole

This is one of the biggest shocks in GE, arguably more so than Aljunied and on par with Joo Chiat
 
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boman

Alfrescian
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Re: What went terribly wrong in Holland-BT for the best qualified opposit team in the

Did SDP in Holland-Bukit Timah work the ground say 6 to 12 months prior to the elections? I know the PAP keeps changing the boundaries but it seems to me making your presence felt (house-to-house visits) months before the elections is important. WP has done this very well in Aljunied and East Coast GRC.
 

Rogue Trader

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Re: What went terribly wrong

The 17% vote swing in Marine Parade refutes your points on Nicole

This is one of the biggest shocks in GE, arguably more so than Aljunied and on par with Joo Chiat

Don't forget to consider the Tin pei ling effect here also.
 

leetahbah

Alfrescian
Loyal
Re: What went terribly wrong

The 17% vote swing in Marine Parade refutes your points on Nicole

This is one of the biggest shocks in GE, arguably more so than Aljunied and on par with Joo Chiat

The thing is that if Nicole had stayed confident, smiles all the time, and had not pulled the crying trick, the NSP would have won Marine Parade GRC.

For her strained face, angry speeches, crying trick, they were reduced to a 17% vote swing. :(
 

SpareTyre

Alfrescian
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Re: What went terribly wrong in Holland-BT for the best qualified opposit team in the

Didn't CSJ hokkein speech video gone viral? Didn't their candidates campaign in chinese? Why is there a distinction in the opposition camp on english or chinese thinking when PAP can win without this distinction. Why does JBJ win Anson? Maybe it has nothing to with sino-friendly or otherwise.

JBJ is an Indian in a Sino-centric party

PAP wrote the playboook on winning race/language votes, and they can do it for all races. WP's reach into the Chinese-speaking ground matches PAP's, while SDP's reach into the English thinkers is not too far off PAP's....but PAP has the complete package

Pity that SDP's best Chinese/dialect speaker is CSJ who has been tarred and feathered in the mainstream press over the last 20 years...significant numbers of Chinese speakers are afraid to vote for him in the way that they arent for WP. Ang shows promise, but needs to fix that combover and speak more from the heart.
 
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