Can i safely say that ur betting method is even bet on "following the dragon" or ping pong depends on the trend??
for me it is easy to win small amount daily but 1 loss will wipe out few days of earning. think most of the gamblers will be falling into the trap of trying to recoup losses when they ar down and i am 1 of them. So whats ur getting out strategy like?? 50% losses of ur bankroll?? i am currently on 20% of bankroll when winning and losing 60% of bankroll
for exit strat.
My frd and i hav been experimenting for the past few mths now..winning consistently should not be a problem but having few losses will wiped out big part of the past winning is unavoidable for our case.
If you are stopping when you win 20% of your bankroll, it doesn't make any sense to stop till you are 60%. You should have stop when you lose 20%.
How do you determine when is the "dragon" coming or when "ping pong" comes? All this are just crap. Casinos do not give out free paper, free pencil for you to write and past results if it can help patrons. All these are their aid to help them earn more money from patrons.
Like you said most of gamblers want recoup losses when losing, but the minority who don't chase losses will win eventually. Casinos are opened 24 hours a day, why are people so kan chiong to try and recoup losses?
I will not give you a fish, but will teach you how to fish.
When you play baccarat, what is the advantage for casinos? Banker bets or Player bets? Tie bets or Player Pair, Banker Pair?
Banker 1-1 5% comm
Player 1-1 No comm
Player Pair 1-11
Banker Pair 1-11
Simple logic tells us that the higher the payout, the lower the winning rate. So I don't understand why people bet on Tie, Player Pair, Banker pair. Once in a while you win, but long time, die...
Why does casinos take 5% comm on Banker bets? Or in mini-baccarat, B6 pays out 50%?
This one you go think ok.
However good a system, if the person who is playing is not disciplined enough, also useless.
What u said i totally understand. As statistically banker hav better odds. for those interested to noe more, this is a very educating website http://wizardofodds.com/baccarat. It even hav a 1000shoes database of 6deck/8 deck random generated results for those system freaks.
But for me, i only played for like 1-2.5hrs per day. It is too short a time for the statistic to work its magic, although the banker only hold a small house edge. Cos i read from somewhere that outcome from short time betting is totally irelevent to the statistics cos the data needs a large amount of results to generate the banker house edge.
The reason i propose 60% losing exit strat to my frd and myself is that i find in normal betting condition, we bound to encounter mini down period/fluctuation. by having 60% losing exit strat, we still can overcome the mini down period easily and win,although my ideal exit strat is suppose to be losing 33%. Currently i bring 3k bankroll, 500winning limit and 100 per unit bet.
My frd and i used some stupid system we invented ourselves but so far ok although in our heart we noe all system are bullshit but it helps to calm our mind and bet confidently.
Last edited by breakingfree; 07-08-2008 at 11:56 AM.
You may ask yourself, but hey, I am not using all these bankroll up if I am going to lose only a certain percentage. It is not wrong to think this way. However, if you bring $3000 and let's say you stop at 20% loss, Once lose $600 you have to stop. If you bring $10000, and you stop at 20% loss, I can lose till $2000 before I stop.
Many people are worst off when they bring $3000 to casino. They think can win $2000 or at least double. I think they are crazy. If I bring $3000, I only expect to win 20%. So your target of winning $500 is achievable and not difficult
My target per trip is to win $8K each night. So you can imagine how much bankroll I bring each. People may think I am mad. But bankroll is like my bullets. If i go to war with so little bullets, I am always scared to fire and always want to keep. If i have a lot of bullets, I have nothing to be afraid of. Just fire to heart content. Psychologically, with a big bankroll, you win. Rather than scared of going ahead.
If you lose 20%, time to take a break. After that, adjust your bet amount with the bankroll of 80%. You may think I am bullshitting and some people have their own style of playing and winning.
But always remember the casino is opened 24 hours a day, no need to be afraid of them closing down. Don't panic and because of time issues, just want to win as much as possible in that short period of time.
No system is stupid till the system is to buy a bet with a big payout.
50% of losers lose money under impulsive behaviour.
30% of losers lose money when they double up.
10% of losers lose money because every bet any bet they also bet.
10% of losers lose money due to luck.
So out of 100%, 90% can be avoided, only the last 10% is due to luck factor. Let's say you have no luck, by simply avoiding the characteristics of the 90%, why can't you have a 10% losing chance and have a 90% chance of not losing?
Just observe how people bet, and you will understand this philosophy. Never lose your temper when losing. Never get too excited when winning. Because the intensity will be too much to handle, indulging people to make wrong choices. If can keep calm, I can eliminate the top 90%.
To train to be calm, exercise, learn yoga, read. Who says casino gambling is just so easy to bet and take money?
imho if ur are using even bet, u can lower ur bankroll abit, but i do understand the importance of Psychological factor of having a big bankroll. It helps greatly in calming our mind. Those who think that gambling is an easy way of getting fast $$ will be very wrong. I donno abt others but it is a very stressful "job" especially i need to do it everyday.
Actually i dont count the amount i should win but by the amount of hand i need to achieve my target. So bascially i need to win 4 to 5 hands(net) to achieve my target not counting the commission blah blah. If i lower my unit per bet to 50$, i either need to increase my amount of winning hand or lower my target. But i dont hav the time to play multi hands cos i bet selectively and under time constraint.
Dont u think it is very troublesome to travel so far to genting bringing load of $$?? I am now a regular in leisure world. Imho LW is much safer than genting. Dont hav much chance of a robbery unless he is a pirate. It is norm for people to notice high rollers or people with high bankroll. In LW, some of the regular high rollers are aunties, going there everyday. We basically noe who is who and some become gambling buddies cos we met each other almost everyday. 1 more better deal is that baccarat table in LW hav insurance bet. make it more safer for u if u feel not confident on ur bet.
When my bankroll is big and my bets are small, I just whack and whack. Nothing to pull me back on deciding which to bet on.
If bet let's say $25, 10 hands is about $250
If bet let's say $1000, 10 hands is about $10,000
Your basic strategy is just to consistently hit 5 hands every night.
If you are talking about playing everyday, basically I don't quite get the meaning of time constraint. Even if you win 1 hand a day, 30 days get you 30 hands. Imagine 1 hand $1000?
On normal days I can win 8-15 hands in a day
On a very lucky day, I can win 20+ hands. Record is 30+ hands.
On an unlucky day, I win about 2-4 hands.
Initially when I play, I make it a point to win even if only 2 hands and 1 bet is $50. Even the money is not enough for hotel etc. But it goes to show that if i can hit 2 hands daily without fail, i can increase my bet one day and $2000 a day is more than enough. Winning breeds confidence. Maintaining not to lose even by 1 hand at the end of the day is my main purpose.
That is why the problem happens when the amount won with the standard number of hands, a lot of people get impatient. I am not saying you are impatient. I seen people getting impatient in casinos, saying 'stay so many hours, only win $100, not even enough for food, transport, hotel, so they start betting big. This is the big taboo. And casinos prey on people like these. Win fast, lose lagi fast. I don't start betting big on the 1st day. I started with $1000 capital to play play. There is no need to use your capital to fight the casino. I just love using their money to win their money. The whole theory is like this. Honestly, winning money is secondary. It's the feeling of beating the casino when the whole world rides on the theory of 10 gamble 9 lose. The winning of money part is just the icing on the cake.
If you say you bet selectively, I roughly catch how you play. You can make money, but like I said, you need more bankroll if you bet $100. Because when you start losing 20%, you lose confidence.
In genting, basically my rooms are free, with the comps I earned. In LW, I got to change non-negotiable chips, not that I can't win them, but the overall experience is not so good. Small ship, same kind of food, nothing to shop or walk and just gamble gamble gamble gamble. Kind of boring. In genting, I can go catch a movie, shopping, play internet, eat, go gym, kind of form of entertainment for relaxing the mind when I want to. Not like hole-ing in a small cabin getting sleep. I basically relax as much as I can, no kio kway because I prefer to focus on gambling and rest in casinos. Women are distractions.
I don't bring so much cash, because I change the cash to chips in genting and I bring the chips back to singapore, as the chips will be capital for next trip. The profit will be changed to cash and from there I bring back 1 stack each trip back. Chips are easier to carry as I can exchange to those plaques which are in the denominations of $1000, $10000, so compared to $100 ringgit notes, not alot if i just carry plaques. These plaques are like the size of chips and its squarish. Can directly change to cash chips on tables and they are not like those non-negotiable chips.
sidetalk a bit on pontoon, blackjack tables.
Card counters are useless because every round, every single deck is shuffled. To defeat card counters.
If Blackjack and pontoon tables allow me to buy the dealer side, I sure buy them. Why? Players when they see dealer have 2-3 on the 1st card, they STAND. The books teach this way, but in real life, dealers with 2-3 seldom burst. I don't understand why too. When the dealer has a 7,8,9, or a picture, you see players start hitting and hitting. As the dealer don't need to do anything, wait for player to hit and burst is good enough. The house edge, playing style, favours the casino greatly. Unless you are a professional 1 person control 7 hands with no external players playing, then probably could stand a chance to win.
Insurance is the lousiest. Remember casinos are not running charities. They would never invent insurance to let us win. Probability of losing in insurance bets are ways for them to collect more money.
You have given us quite an insight into someone who can be said to be almost a full time casino player. Perhaps like something from a movie rather than real life.
But can you also tell us briefly how you came to be a full time casino player. Did you use to work or run a business previously? Do you come from a rich family? Did you strike the lottery?
Because in spite of your rational thoughts about casino gambling and deep thinking, it would still appear to most people to be a very risky thing to do if you don't have a lot of cash or "backing" available.
Hope you understand my question.
I have a few businesses, some fail, some make some money. The kind where it doesn't make you poor, neither make you rich. I leverage my income to save and buy on shares, stocks. Using the money earned to invest in properties. From then I really started to see some money. I don't come from a rich family, not those living in districts 9, 10. Mid income.
Then one day I started reading books under the influence of a friend, realised that reading calms the mind and really make a person start using his brains. Reading curbs temper, and you realise many ways of life which you can apply in real life. So I started to went into studies of human behaviour and psychology. I applied all these methods into shares investment and realise the key is in being patient and keeping emotions in check. So one day happen to be holidaying in hongkong, same friend said go macau, decided to visit the casinos. Didn't really play much but started to observe people. Decided to apply what I learnt into gambling. That trip I won. My friend didn't really teach me how to gamble, but he taught me to win first of all you must win yourself. So that is why he encourage me to read, not for the sake of gambling but for personal well-being. When you can do that, you can apply these theories not even in gambling, but also in business and real life.
When I came back, I went into analysing various forms of gamblings, behaviour of people, keeping note of how people gamble with their bad habits. It's easy to see. Telling myself never to fall into like them.
So I take a paltry investment of $1000 to play with the casino. Starting only win like $100 or so. Very little, barely enough to cover expenses or even accommodations, but I am more interested to see how many hands I can win in a night, because if I increase my limit, I will be able to win money if I can consistently hit +positive territory. My friend also told me what is the point if I bring $10000 or so to a casino to win them. The fun part is using little money to win them and use their money to win more from them. That is the challenge.
From there I slowly started to keep what I earned from casino plays. Used the money earned I slowly use it as capital in casino. From $1000, slowly to $5000, slowly to $10000, and it slowly grew(not nice to say too much) To be able to reach the stage I am in, is not like 1-2 months, About a year. Imagine growing $1000 beyond $10000, is like over 1000% growth.
Many of us here are working, so $1000 as an initial start is very small. The theory of compounding my money was learned from shares investment, and I used the money earned to buy shares. After that I used it to buy properties. I don't quite like to buy cars because cars are depreciating, so in order not to lose too much, I stick with paying cars in full without using loans. Buying BMW, Mercs etc would be useless if you start taking loans on them. Now I am saving hard to see whether I can buy a GTR and paying it in full because its my dream car. (Dream, so must fulfil) For $300K, I can buy loads of shares and even finance my properties. So this money I am setting aside as I use a lot of my money on other investment management.
Many people fall into the trap of gambling, because when they win, they have no management of their winnings. They indulge in other stuff, without growing the money. So this is why even if I stop playing, I still have income for my lifestyle like going for spas, etc. Playing in a casino involves lots of brain cells activation, so I don't normally stay for more than 4 nights in a row. When i am back, I go for spas in hotels, facials, pamper relax, and of course book FLs in SBF. Well, work hard, earn hard, save hard also must play hard. Don't wish to wait till I am 50s, then start playing. This is the only form of indulgence I have . Doesn't put me in negative territory, but if I follow Buffett's thinking, I could have earned much more money with every dollar saved and the money compounded would be enormous.
I don't believe in skills, luck etc so much in a casino. If you are lucky, its temporary. If you are skilful, its also temporary. If your character is fucked up, its permanent, but only you yourself can change it.
You get to see many gamblers in casinos, win a bit of money start to showoff get proud, head get too big, this wouldn't last long. Be humble make more friends than enemies, just like in this forum, you see people like to post their thoughts, start to argue with you, let them be. Let them win to fill up their egos. Why waste time to argue with people like them. They would always think they are right and your words can't change them.
If I can start off with $1000, so can you. But if you cannot manage your emotions, even if you win a Million, it will finish very very soon.
People in general have very bad impressions of gamblers, so thats why if you start telling people you gamble as a living, people start to look at you with other kind of eyes. If you are gambling and losing and keep borrowing money, its a lousy investment. If you are gambling and winning and can yet still have assets, why not? So its not how you play but how you manage your money.
Last edited by silverfox@; 09-08-2008 at 05:05 AM.
After reading your latest post, I actually went back in the thread to read your earlier posts. I almost never do that with other posts or forummers. Don't worry, I'm not gay and I'm not going to rob you, hahaha, but I'm very interested in your thoughts, lifestyle and principles. Hope you don't mind if I continue to tap your mind for ideas for myself.
You mentioned that you are mid 30s and no wife and kids. Do you plan to have a wife and kids? Or do you think these will be detrimental to you?
You said that you go to Genting and Macau most often. Can you share how you go to these places and what type of accomodation do you arrange?
You are obviously much more than just a typical casino gambler or even a neighbourhood 4d/toto gambler. Are you saying that you have put aside some investments to earn some passive income, while you take another lot of funds as your "casino capital" for full time gambling? It seems that your approach to gambling is similar to some peoples' approach to investing, with "stop loss" and "minimum capital" strategies, just to name 2.
My lifestyle in the past was like always happy go lucky, change girlfriends like clothes. In short is a playboy. I seriously wasn't looking for love, and in the process hurt many people. Then one day my retribution came. I fell in love with my prey and in the end I was the one who got hurt. So no point blaming anyone and that was the time I fully understand that what I got now is all the 'bad things' I did in the past.
My principles started to change as I started to go into reading after that period of losing the one I love most. I basically hang out in bookshops day night and started reading all kinds of books. You will start to ponder back and think. From what I read, I re-adjusted all my financial portfolios. Sold away useless properties, got back the money, re-invest. I applied my investment thinking onto gambling which I can do just with only $1000.
I would still seriously consider marriage if the right girl comes, if not, I wouldn't get married. Meanwhile the right one, I lost her, another right one haven't appear, so settling down is still a big question mark.
But I prefer going Genting, because its nearer. If the IR in singapore opens, I wouldn't go genting so often. Genting there is hotels available. As I am lone ranger, normal rooms are good enough.
My savings are heavily invested in shares with earnings from it using to buy properties, from there I get passive income. I only used $1000 from my savings to gamble when I start, till today, this $1000 is recouped back and my capital in gambling comes from the casino. So you don't need a lot of money to win the casino, but you need to manage your own self and your money. I plough back my earnings from casinos into shares. From shares into properties. So that is why I have income this way.
Playing in a casino has reach a stage where I is like I determine how this share portfolio will go. Will it rise, will it drop. What to do when it rise, what to do when it drops. It's like shares investing. I applied these theories into gambling.
Seriously its not how much you going to gamble. It's your outlook on your way of life and how you want things to happen.
You just have to ask yourself, when you see bookies, loansharks, these people only think of earning money, but they never think of managing it. That is why after years, they are still doing the same illegal things. You ever see them quit?
When my relatives ask me what I do in real life, I just say I buy shares. How to tell people you gamble as a career? No one believes.
Try reading books on Zen of Buffetology, Napoleon hill's books, and if you want local writer's you can try Adam Khoo. But reading is reading, you will find something very common in these people.
all i can say is "know when to stop" ... for me if i win in the begining i "double up" , if lose then "double down" lor ... not the other way round hor ! A lot of punters die young is bcos of the latter ...
Thanks again for your reply.
Regarding your comment on emigrating, I think we share the same view. Besides Singapore, I have lived and worked in other countries as well, and I can say for sure that Singapore is quite a good place to live in. Many people who say how good other countries are, may not have lived in other countries before. They may have gone for a one week vacation and thought the place was fabulous. But Singapore is ok to live in only if you have some money and are intelligent enough to discern and ascertain what is right or wrong and what is good or bad for you. Otherwise you will be led like a sheep by people who like to exude power over others or think they know what is good for you.
Ok back to casino gambling. Some questions on blackjack.
1. I think you will agree that it is better for the player when there are other players in the table playing with the dealer? I guess it is so that you can better ascertain what the dealers' cards or your cards will be?
2. I find it very irritating when I am seated at the table and someone places a bet "on me". Can I reject this person's bet? Or can I just take away my bet and walk away?
3. If the person places a higher bet than mine, does he have the right to make the decision to hit or stay?
Please clarify your answers by stating whether they are casino rules or merely etiquette.
I don't understand why the person who places a higher bet can't go and find his own table and game. Is it to show that he has more money and hence more power? Damn kwai lan these people.
wat is 1326 bro silverfox@?
Last edited by breakingfree; 11-08-2008 at 10:27 AM.
Wow, so much to talk about beating a game where basically there is negative long run expectation.
Why not play poker instead where it can be positive?
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