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Thread: A Euro collapse - The WHAT IFs

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    Default A Euro collapse - The WHAT IFs

    What If, the Euro collapse ?

    Let us start off by saying that we do not see the Euro collapsing and being shelved, at least not yet, anyway. No exit process was written into their rules anyway. But it is technically possible, so better to be forewarned.

    The former Governor of the Bank of Israel, Prof. Yaakov Frenkel, has predicted a possible collapse of the Euro within the next three years.

    Frenkel was quoted by the Bulgarian news agency BTA as saying that if European Union leaders fail to deal successfully with the Greek financial crisis, the European currency would not survive.


    Full Collapse
    Simply put, the Eurozone would revert to what it was before the Euro existed. The European Central Bank would have to return all of its gold to the member States in proportion to their initial contributions. Their old currencies would have to be resurrected and Euro reserves converted back to the mix passed to the European Central banks from the beginning of the Eurozone.

    Dollar reserves would be built up again to replace the lost Euro reserves.

    The world's Foreign Exchange Markets would be in chaos. Confidence in most if not all currencies would almost disappear. By extension the ripple effect through the economies of the world and business in general, would be destructive. There would be a huge scramble for all hard assets, but particularly precious metals. Briefly the U.S. Dollar would reign as king.

    Partial Collapse
    More likely the Eurozone will shrink first. The poorer Southern countries of the E.U. would be cast out of the Eurozone and would have to revert to their previous currencies. Spain would return to the Peseta, Greece to the Drachma, etc.

    The example of Argentina un-pegging from the U.S. Dollar should be seen as the precedent for this process. The wealthy of Argentina found their capital hammered when it was forcefully converted from the U.S. Dollar to the Peso in that process too. So the lifting of deposits, which is happening now, from the banks in Greece, Portugal and now Spain, was only to be expected. If they had their own currencies, either the fall in the value of those currencies would deter that capital flight, or the imposition of Exchange Controls would block it.

    In the case of Europe, we would also expect to see Exchange Controls imposed immediately all countries that leave the Eurozone did so. This would prevent the capital hemorrhaging from the country that left the Eurozone in disgrace. The exchange rate of the exiting countries would initially fall heavily then take a long time to recover, if they managed to recover economically at all. By leaving the zone, these countries, would ensure they would suffer at least one, if not more, decades of growing poverty, much as is expected to happen with them remaining inside the Eurozone.

    With the richer nations remaining in the Euro, the exchange rate of the Euro would soar at first, hammering its global trade competitiveness but attracting the world's capital. It would jump against all currencies, but most decisively against the U.S. Dollar, as its indebtedness would fall and prospects would improve.

    If Germany Leaves The Eurozone
    It is possible in one scene to see Germany recognizing no further advantage of remaining in the E.U. and opting to leave. This is unlikely, but technically possible. If it were to do so, there would be few really strong economies left behind, in the zone. This would be a disaster for the Euro, which would tumble against the U.S. Dollar. If the poor countries of the Southern part of the Eurozone remained in the E.U., then the Euro would remain on an ever deteriorating slope.

    Germany would return to the Deutschmark and follow a similar currency path that it experienced prior to the creation of the Euro. This would mean repeated upward revaluations, usually preceded by denials of such revaluations from the Bundesbank.

    In that event, the U.S. Dollar would be favored as the global reserve currency almost exclusively and would rise on foreign exchanges, despite so many reasons why it should fall. It would in fact be falling but slower than other important currencies, giving the impression of strength in weakness.

    Globally
    Resource producing currencies would soar. In an attempt to lower their exchange rates they would turn to lowering their interest rates in the hope of maintaining the export competitiveness of their locally manufactured goods. With resources having an international market price, outside their own currency, such nations would drive down their exchange rates, provided local inflation allowed it [As China is doing now and as was suggested by the I.M.F. recently].

    The overall result would be a volatile and damaging use of currencies as part of trade wars. Should that happen, Protectionism and Exchange Controls would become commonplace, particularly in smaller economies.

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    Default Re: A Euro collapse - The WHAT IFs

    USD will be the biggest beneficiary of the Euro collapse.
    Iran might have to start accepting USD for her oil exports.

    Which makes you wonder who can be the hidden hand to trigger the collapse???
    Last edited by theDoors; 05-05-2010 at 01:54 AM.
    this is the end... the end my friend

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    Default Re: A Euro collapse - The WHAT IFs

    seems like a good time to buy in by this week

    Quote Originally Posted by theDoors View Post
    USD will be the biggest beneficiary of the Euro collapse.

    Iran might have to start accepting USD for her oil exports.

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    Default Re: A Euro collapse - The WHAT IFs

    Quote Originally Posted by theDoors View Post
    USD will be the biggest beneficiary of the Euro collapse.
    Iran might have to start accepting USD for her oil exports.

    Which makes you wonder who can be the hidden hand to trigger the collapse???
    The USD is always will be the biggest beneficiary because it is the only currency that has the real safe haven status in the world. Regardless of how bad or good its economy is.

    As I mentioned many times, it is not a country's GDP that determine its real power. The underlying institutions - from the Fed reserve, the congress, the independent judicial system , the transparency guaranteed by its constitution, and so on. The intangibles.

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    Default Re: A Euro collapse - The WHAT IFs

    I think is the cabal of Anglo American bankers, not Unites States government institutions that is holding the international financial system together.
    this is the end... the end my friend

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    Default Re: A Euro collapse - The WHAT IFs

    Please lah, you need a huge GDP to be reserve currency on top of the regulations. If not the Swiss Franc would be the reserve currency. Having a large GDP will naturally result in many countries willing and needing to hold your currency because of trade. And of course on top of that you need financial stability.

    As we speak US financial stability is weakening and if they do not cut their deficits they will be in the same position as EU. The danger of reserve currency is that you have little control over it since so much of it is held overseas. Should there be a loss of confidence the collapse will be spectacular. It would be tough to control the inflation.

    In such times, the Chinese are in a good position because their Yuan is controlled, they have no external debt and banks are control by the central gov. In effect you have super stability with little contagion effect. After all the country does not need to borrow from intl markets.

    Yuan denominated loan/haircuts from property losses can all be managed internally. With a fast growing economy (5 to 10% depending on situation), Beijing can easily setup bank resolution trust and buy up all the property or hold back bank foreclosure (legal regulatory means) and let the bubble be deflated via inflation/economic growth.

    If the property is 50% over valued, an economy growing at 7% will let air out of bubble in 5 to 6 years. This does not mean that stock market will not drop nor will we not see any pain - we will see both but it will not be as bad as envisioned.

    At the moment EU is in worse trouble than the US. It has a higher public debt to GDP ratio as well as high budget deficits. On top of that it has a failing member.

    Quote Originally Posted by GoFlyKiteNow View Post
    The USD is always will be the biggest beneficiary because it is the only currency that has the real safe haven status in the world. Regardless of how bad or good its economy is.

    As I mentioned many times, it is not a country's GDP that determine its real power. The underlying institutions - from the Fed reserve, the congress, the independent judicial system , the transparency guaranteed by its constitution, and so on. The intangibles.

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    Default Re: A Euro collapse - The WHAT IFs

    Quote Originally Posted by longbow View Post
    Please lah, you need a huge GDP to be reserve currency on top of the regulations. If not the Swiss Franc would be the reserve currency. Having a large GDP will naturally result in many countries willing and needing to hold your currency because of trade. And of course on top of that you need financial stability.
    r.
    A good set of intangibles help build a good innovative economy..which is the case with the USA..so it goes without saying its economy is why the largest in the world and the engine of global growth. The Swiss has a healthy economy, with good intangibles, but its size is not the same as the USA. Hence its economy is smaller.

    A country without such intangibles, has not much to speak of , even it has a huge economy with a massive billion plus population.
    Why argue..when the history shows the facts to you.?

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    Default Re: A Euro collapse - The WHAT IFs

    Quote Originally Posted by GoFlyKiteNow View Post
    A good set of intangibles help build a good innovative economy..which is the case with the USA..so it goes without saying its economy is why the largest in the world and the engine of global growth. The Swiss has a healthy economy, with good intangibles, but its size is not the same as the USA. Hence its economy is smaller.

    A country without such intangibles, has not much to speak of , even it has a huge economy with a massive billion plus population.
    Why argue..when the history shows the facts to you.?
    I beg to differ.

    US consumers can't consume, as unemployment is still all time high, the printed fiat money is stuck with the banking institutions, as most of the borrowers are still not credit worthy.

    USD can't flow to China, as US consumers can't consume Chinese goods. Without the USD flowing into Chinese hands, it cannot be recycled to purchased US treasury bonds. Accelerating the decline of the dollar.

    Next best play, is to trigger the collapse of the EU, as to arrest the trend of reserves being switch from USD to Euros.
    this is the end... the end my friend

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    Default Re: A Euro collapse - The WHAT IFs

    Quote Originally Posted by theDoors View Post
    I beg to differ.

    US consumers can't consume, as unemployment is still all time high, the printed fiat money is stuck with the banking institutions, as most of the borrowers are still not credit worthy.

    USD can't flow to China, as US consumers can't consume Chinese goods. Without the USD flowing into Chinese hands, it cannot be recycled to purchased US treasury bonds. Accelerating the decline of the dollar.

    Next best play, is to trigger the collapse of the EU, as to arrest the trend of reserves being switch from USD to Euros.
    Just ask yourself this question..until today , since depression times till today, why is the USD is considered as the safe haven.?. The currency to which financial markets fly to , the moment there is some uncertainty..the currency that is used in 98 % of global trade..the currency against which all other currencies including gold, oil is quoted.. WHY ?

    These are facts..and let the facts speak for themselves.

    All the goods that are made in china now, are also made by other nations, including Brazil, Vietnam, Mexico, Indonesia and so on. That is another fact to content with in the future. Prices are competitive too.

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    Default Re: A Euro collapse - The WHAT IFs

    Quote Originally Posted by GoFlyKiteNow View Post
    Just ask yourself this question..until today , since depression times till today, why is the USD is considered as the safe haven.?. The currency to which financial markets fly to , the moment there is some uncertainty..the currency that is used in 98 % of global trade..the currency against which all other currencies including gold, oil is quoted.. WHY ?

    These are facts..and let the facts speak for themselves.

    All the goods that are made in china now, are also made by other nations, including Brazil, Vietnam, Mexico, Indonesia and so on. That is another fact to content with in the future. Prices are competitive too.
    With the exception of Iran, oil is priced exclusively in USD.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrodollar_warfare
    this is the end... the end my friend

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    Default Re: A Euro collapse - The WHAT IFs

    Quote Originally Posted by GoFlyKiteNow View Post
    What If, the Euro collapse ?

    Let us start off by saying that we do not see the Euro collapsing and being shelved, at least not yet, anyway. No exit process was written into their rules anyway. But it is technically possible, so better to be forewarned.

    The former Governor of the Bank of Israel, Prof. Yaakov Frenkel, has predicted a possible collapse of the Euro within the next three years.

    Frenkel was quoted by the Bulgarian news agency BTA as saying that if European Union leaders fail to deal successfully with the Greek financial crisis, the European currency would not survive.


    Full Collapse
    Simply put, the Eurozone would revert to what it was before the Euro existed. The European Central Bank would have to return all of its gold to the member States in proportion to their initial contributions. Their old currencies would have to be resurrected and Euro reserves converted back to the mix passed to the European Central banks from the beginning of the Eurozone.

    Dollar reserves would be built up again to replace the lost Euro reserves.

    The world's Foreign Exchange Markets would be in chaos. Confidence in most if not all currencies would almost disappear. By extension the ripple effect through the economies of the world and business in general, would be destructive. There would be a huge scramble for all hard assets, but particularly precious metals. Briefly the U.S. Dollar would reign as king.

    Partial Collapse
    More likely the Eurozone will shrink first. The poorer Southern countries of the E.U. would be cast out of the Eurozone and would have to revert to their previous currencies. Spain would return to the Peseta, Greece to the Drachma, etc.

    The example of Argentina un-pegging from the U.S. Dollar should be seen as the precedent for this process. The wealthy of Argentina found their capital hammered when it was forcefully converted from the U.S. Dollar to the Peso in that process too. So the lifting of deposits, which is happening now, from the banks in Greece, Portugal and now Spain, was only to be expected. If they had their own currencies, either the fall in the value of those currencies would deter that capital flight, or the imposition of Exchange Controls would block it.

    In the case of Europe, we would also expect to see Exchange Controls imposed immediately all countries that leave the Eurozone did so. This would prevent the capital hemorrhaging from the country that left the Eurozone in disgrace. The exchange rate of the exiting countries would initially fall heavily then take a long time to recover, if they managed to recover economically at all. By leaving the zone, these countries, would ensure they would suffer at least one, if not more, decades of growing poverty, much as is expected to happen with them remaining inside the Eurozone.

    With the richer nations remaining in the Euro, the exchange rate of the Euro would soar at first, hammering its global trade competitiveness but attracting the world's capital. It would jump against all currencies, but most decisively against the U.S. Dollar, as its indebtedness would fall and prospects would improve.

    If Germany Leaves The Eurozone
    It is possible in one scene to see Germany recognizing no further advantage of remaining in the E.U. and opting to leave. This is unlikely, but technically possible. If it were to do so, there would be few really strong economies left behind, in the zone. This would be a disaster for the Euro, which would tumble against the U.S. Dollar. If the poor countries of the Southern part of the Eurozone remained in the E.U., then the Euro would remain on an ever deteriorating slope.

    Germany would return to the Deutschmark and follow a similar currency path that it experienced prior to the creation of the Euro. This would mean repeated upward revaluations, usually preceded by denials of such revaluations from the Bundesbank.

    In that event, the U.S. Dollar would be favored as the global reserve currency almost exclusively and would rise on foreign exchanges, despite so many reasons why it should fall. It would in fact be falling but slower than other important currencies, giving the impression of strength in weakness.

    Globally
    Resource producing currencies would soar. In an attempt to lower their exchange rates they would turn to lowering their interest rates in the hope of maintaining the export competitiveness of their locally manufactured goods. With resources having an international market price, outside their own currency, such nations would drive down their exchange rates, provided local inflation allowed it [As China is doing now and as was suggested by the I.M.F. recently].

    The overall result would be a volatile and damaging use of currencies as part of trade wars. Should that happen, Protectionism and Exchange Controls would become commonplace, particularly in smaller economies.
    Personally I feel the whole European Union is a bad idea.

    They are trying to do a USA in Europe, which is impossible. These countries all have different languages and standards of living.

    The biggest problem in Europe today is the European Union...too idealistic, too impractical.

    Poorer migrants are flooding into rich countries, the Euro faces collapse, no more borders between countries, etc..it is looking to be a nightmare.

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    Default Re: A Euro collapse - The WHAT IFs

    Watch the first 4 mins of the movie The Kingdom. Is a good primer to the state of affairs between the Saud family and the US government.



    Saudi Arabia the leader of OPEC, chooses to priced oil exclusively in USD because of the support the US government has rendered the Saud family to this present day.
    this is the end... the end my friend

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    Default Re: A Euro collapse - The WHAT IFs

    http://www.democraticunderground.com...ress=114x14286

    According to research outlined in Dr. David Spiro’s book, The Hidden Hand of American Hegemony (1999), it was during this time OPEC began discussions on the viability of pricing oil trades in several currencies. This unpublished proposal involved a “basket of currencies” from the Group of Ten nations, or “G-10.” These 10 members of the Bank of International Settlements (plus Austria and Switzerland) included the major European countries and their currencies such as Germany (Mark), France (Franc), and the U.K. (Sterling), as well other industrialized nations such as Japan (yen), Canada (Canadian dollar), and of course the Unites States (U.S. dollar). 35 It should be noted the powerful G-10/BIS Group of Ten also has one unofficial member, the governor of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority, or SAMA.

    In order to prevent this monetary transition to a basket of currencies, the Nixon administration began high-level talks with Saudi Arabia to unilaterally price international oil sales in dollars only – despite U.S. assurances to its European and Japanese allies that such a unique monetary/geopolitical arrangement would not transpire. In 1974 an agreement was reached with New York and London banking interests which established what became known as “petrodollar recycling.”

    That year the Saudi government secretly purchased $2.5 billion in U.S. Treasury bills with their oil surplus funds, and a few years later Treasury Secretary Michael Blumenthal cut a secret deal with the Saudis to ensure that OPEC would continue to price oil in dollars only. 36

    In typical understatement Dr. Spiro noted, “…clearly something more than the laws of supply and demand…resulted in 70 percent of all Saudi assets in the United States being held in a New York Fed account.” 37 Naturally, this arrangement with the Saudi government prevented a market-based adjustment, and was the basis for the second phase of the American Century, the Petrodollar phase. What follows is the extraordinary history in which petrodollar recycling was vigorously implemented during the 1970s.


    Recycling Petrodollars

    "In May 1973, with the dramatic fall of the dollar still vivid, a group of 84 of the world’s top financial and political insiders met at Saltsjobaden, Sweden, the secluded island resort of the Swedish Wallenberg banking family. This gathering of Bilderberg group heard an American participant, Walter Levy, outline a ‘scenario’ for an imminent 400 percent increase in OPEC petroleum revenues. The purpose of the secret Saltsjobaden meeting was not to prevent the expected oil price shock, but rather to plan how to manage the about-to-be-created flood of oil dollars, a process U.S. Secretary of State Kissinger later called ‘recycling the petrodollar flows.’"

    - F. William Engdahl, A Century of War (2004) 38

    Beginning in the mid-1970’s the American Century system of global economic dominance underwent a dramatic change. The oil price shocks of 1973-1974 and 1979 suddenly created enormous demand for the floating dollar. Oil importing countries from Germany to Argentina to Japan, all were faced with how to acquire export-based dollars to pay their expensive new oil import bills. The rise in the price of oil flooded OPEC with dollars that far exceeded domestic investment needs, and were therefore categorized as “surplus petrodollars.” A major share of these oil dollars came to London and New York banks where the new process of monetary petrodollar recycling was initiated.

    Engdahl’s remarkable book, A Century of War (2004), chronicles how certain geopolitical events mirrored a “scenario” discussed during a May 1973 Bilderberg meeting. Apparently powerful banking interests sought to “manage” the monetary dollar flows that were premised upon what the group envisioned as “huge increases” in the price of oil from the Middle East. The minutes of this Bilderberg meeting included projections regarding the price of “OPEC oil of some 400 per cent.” 39

    In 1974 U.S Assistant Treasury Secretary Jack F. Bennett and David Mulford of the London-based Eurobond firm of White Weld & Co set about the mechanism to handle the surplus OPEC petrodollars. 40 Kissinger, Bennett and Mulford helped orchestrate the secret financial arrangement with the Saudi Arabia Monetary Agency (SAMA) that creatively transformed the high oil prices of 1973-1974 to the direct benefit of the U.S. Federal Reserve banks and the Bank of England.

    Despite the financial windfall enjoyed by the U.S./U.K banking and petroleum conglomerates who “managed the recycling of petrodollar flows,” most Americans regard the 1973-74 oil shocks as a particularly painful time period of high inflation and long lines at every gas station. In the Third World these high oil prices created huge loans from the International Monetary Fund – debts to be re-paid entirely in dollars.

    ...now let's fastforward to more recent events...

    On September 24, 2000 Saddam Hussein emerged from a meeting of his government and proclaimed that Iraq would soon transition its oil export transactions to the euro currency. 52 Saddam referred to the U.S. dollar as currency of the ‘enemy state.’ Why would Saddam’s currency switch be such a strategic threat to the bankers in London and New York? Why would the United States President risk fifty years of carefully crafted global alliances with various European allies, and advocate a military attack whose justification could not be proved to the world community?

    The answer is simple - the dollar’s unique role of a petrodollar has been the foundation of the dollar hegemony since the mid 1970’s. The process of petrodollar recycling underpins American economic hegemony, which funds American military supremacy.

    Dollar/petrodollar supremacy allows the U.S. a unique ability to sustain yearly current account deficits; pass huge tax cuts, build a massive military Empire of Bases around the globe, and still have others accept our currency as medium of exchange for their imported good and services. The origins of this history are not found in textbooks on International Economics, but rather in the minutes of meetings held by various banking and petroleum elites who have quietly sought unhindered power.

    U.S. Dollar: Fiat Currency or Oil-Backed Currency?

    "What the powerful men grouped around the Bilderberg had evidently decided that May <1973> was to launch a colossal assault against industrial growth in the world, in order to tilt the balance of power back to the advantage of Anglo-American financial interests and the dollar. In order to do this, they determined to use their most prized weapon – control of the world’s oil flows. Bilderberg policy was to trigger a global oil embargo in order to force a dramatic increase in world oil prices. Since 1945, world oil had by international custom been priced in dollars…A sudden sharp increase in the world price of oil, therefore, meant an equally dramatic increase in world demand for U.S. dollars to pay for that necessary oil.

    Never in history had such a small circle of interests, centered in London and New York, controlled so much of the entire world’s economic destiny. The Anglo-American financial establishment had resolved to use their oil power in a manner no one could have imagined possible. The very outrageousness of their scheme was to their advantage, they clearly reckoned."

    - F. William Engdahl, A Century of War (2004)

    At this point he makes an extraordinary claim: "I am 100 per cent sure that the Americans were behind the increase in the price of oil. The oil companies were in real trouble at that time, they had borrowed a lot of money and they needed a high oil price to save them."

    ‘He says he was convinced of this by the attitude of the Shah of Iran, who in one crucial day in 1974 moved from the Saudi view’…’to advocating higher prices.’

    'King Faisal sent me to the Shah of Iran, who said: Why are you against the increase in the price of oil? That is what they want? Ask Henry Kissinger - he is the one who wants a higher price".’

    Yamani contends that proof of his long-held belief has recently emerged in the minutes of a secret meeting on a Swedish island, where UK and US officials determined to orchestrate a 400 per cent increase in the oil price.

    - UK Observer interview with Sheikh Yaki Yamani (Saudi Arabian Oil Minister from 1962-1986) at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, January 14, 2001 54

    As previously noted, the crucial shift to an oil-backed currency took place in the early 1970s when President Nixon closed the so-called “gold window” at the Federal Treasury. This removed the dollar’s redemption value from a fixed amount of gold to a fiat currency that floated against other currencies. This was done so the Federal Government would have no restraints on printing new dollars, thereby able to pursue undisciplined fiscal policies to maintain the U.S.’s Superpower status. The only limit was how many dollars the rest of the world would be willing to accept on the “full faith and credit” of the U.S. government. The result was rapid inflation and a falling dollar.

    Although rarely discussed outside arcane discussions of the “global political economy,” it is easy to grasp that if oil can be purchased on the international markets only with U.S. dollars, the demand and liquidity value will be solidified given that oil is the essential natural resources required for every industrialized nation. Oil trades are the basic enablers for a manufacturing infrastructure, the basis of global transportation, and the primary energy source for 40% of the industrial economy.

    During the 1970s a two-pronged strategy was pursued by the U.S./U.K. banking elites to exploit the unique role of oil in an effort to maintain dollar hegemony. One component was the requirement that OPEC agree to price and conduct all of its oil transactions in the dollar only, and two was to use these surplus petrodollars as the instrument to dramatically reverse the dollar’s falling liquidity value via high oil prices. The net effect solidified industrialized and developing nations under the sphere of the dollar. No longer backed by gold, the dollar became backed by black gold.

    This brilliant if somewhat nefarious act of monetary jujitsu enormously benefited not only the U.S./U.K. banking interests, but also the “Seven Sisters” of the U.S./U.K. petroleum conglomerate (Exxon, Texaco, Mobil, Chevron, Gulf, British Petroleum, and Royal Dutch/Shell). These major oil interests had incurred tremendous debts from the capital requirements in their large new oil platforms in the inhospitable areas of the North Sea and in Prudhoe Bay, Alaska.

    However, following the 1974 oil price shocks, their profitability was secure. Engdahl candidly noted “while Kissinger’s 1973 oil shock had a devastating impact on world industrial growth, it had an enormous benefit for certain established interests – the major New York and London banks, and the Seven Sisters oil multinational of the United States and Britain.” 57

    The unique monetary arrangement was formalized in June 1974 by Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, establishing the U.S.-Saudi Arabian Joint Commission on Economic Cooperation. The U.S. Treasury and the New York Federal Reserve would ‘allow’ the Saudi central bank to buy U.S. Treasury bonds with Saudi petrodollars. 58
    Likewise, London banks would handle eurozone-based international oil transactions, loan these revenue via “Eurobonds” to oil importing countries. The debt and interest from these loans would then flow to the dollar denominated payments to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), thereby completing the recycling of surplus petrodollars back to the Federal Reserve.

    ..as for Saddam's switch that led to "regime change"...

    Although this little-noted Iraq move to defy the dollar in favor of the euro in itself did not have a huge impact, the ramifications regarding further OPEC momentum towards a petroeuro are quite profound. If invoicing oil in euros were to spread, especially against an already weak dollar, it could create a panic sell-off of dollars by foreign central banks and OPEC oil producers. In the months before the latest Iraq war, hints in this direction were heard from Russia, Iran, Indonesia and even Venezuela. There are indicators that the Iraq war was a forceful way to deliver a message to OPEC and others oil producers, ‘Do not transition from the petrodollar to a petroeuro system.’ Engdahl’s conversation with a forthright London-based banker is rather enlightening:

    Informed banking circles in the City of London and elsewhere in Europe privately confirm the significance of that little-noted Iraq move from petrodollar to petroeuro. ‘The Iraq move was a declaration of war against the dollar’, one senior London banker told me recently. ‘As soon as it was clear that Britain and the U.S. had taken Iraq, a great sigh of relief was heard in London City banks. They said privately, “now we don’t have to worry about that damn euro threat.”63

    Petrodollar recycling works quite simply because oil is an essential commodity for every nation, and the petrodollar system demands the buildup of huge trade surpluses in order to accumulate dollar surpluses. This is the case for every country but the United States, which controls the dollar and prints it at will or fiat. Because today the majority of all international trade is done in dollars, other countries must engage in active trade relations with the U.S. to get the means of payment they cannot themselves issue. The entire global trade structure today has formed around this dynamic, from Russia to China, from Brazil to South Korea and Japan. Every nation aims to maximize dollar surpluses from their export trade as almost every nation needs to import oil.

    This insures the dollar’s liquidity value, and helps explain why almost 70% of world trade is conducted in dollars, even though U.S. exports are about one third of that total. The dollar is the currency which central banks accumulate as reserves, but whether it is China, Japan, Brazil or Russia, they simply do not stack all these dollars in their vaults. Currencies have one advantage over gold. A central bank can use it to buy the state bonds of the issuer, the United States. Most countries around the world are forced to control trade deficits or face currency collapse.

    Such is not the case in the United States, whose number one export product is the dollar itself. This unique arrangement is largely due to the dollar’s World Reserve currency role, which is underpinned by its petrodollar role. Every nation needs to get dollars to purchase oil, some more than others. This means their trade targets are countries that utilize the dollar, with the U.S. consumer as the main target for export products of the nation seeking to build dollar reserves.


    References

    35. David E. Spiro, The Hidden Hand of American Hegemony: Petrodollar Recycling and International Markets, Cornell University Press, (1999) p. 121-123

    36. David E. Spiro, ibid, p. x

    37. David E. Spiro, ibid, p. 125

    38. William Engdahl, A Century of War: Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order,' Pluto Press (2004, 2nd edition), p. 130

    39. William Engdahl, A Century of War, pgs. 130-138. Note: Engdahl was able to purchase the secret minutes of a May 1973 Bilderberg meeting from a Paris bookseller. His book contains actual photocopies of the cover page and related text discussed in chapter 1. The cover page is stamped: “SALSJOBADEN CONFERENCE 11-13 May 1973.” Also stamped on the cover page are the words:” PERSONAL AND STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL” and “NOT FOR PUBLICATION EITHER IN WHOLE OR IN PART”

    53. William Engdahl, A Century of War, op cited, p. 135

    54. Oliver Morgan and Islam Faisal, ‘Saudi dove in the oil slick,’ Observer, January 14, 2001 http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,42...

    57. William Engdahl, ibid, p. 136
    52. Robert Block, ‘Some Muslim Nations Advocate Dumping the Dollar for the Euro,’ The Wall Street Journal, April 15, 2003

    63. William Engdahl, ‘A New American Century? Iraq and the hidden euro-dollar wars,’ currentconcerns.ch, No 4, 2003 http://www.currentconcerns.ch/archive/2003/04/20030409....
    Last edited by theDoors; 05-05-2010 at 09:47 AM.
    this is the end... the end my friend

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    Default Re: A Euro collapse - The WHAT IFs

    Since the US economy is not going to recover any time soon, best play is to take out the next reserve currency, the Euro.
    this is the end... the end my friend

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    Default Re: A Euro collapse - The WHAT IFs

    Quote Originally Posted by GoFlyKiteNow View Post
    Just ask yourself this question..until today , since depression times till today, why is the USD is considered as the safe haven.?. The currency to which financial markets fly to , the moment there is some uncertainty..the currency that is used in 98 % of global trade..the currency against which all other currencies including gold, oil is quoted.. WHY ?

    These are facts..and let the facts speak for themselves.

    All the goods that are made in china now, are also made by other nations, including Brazil, Vietnam, Mexico, Indonesia and so on. That is another fact to content with in the future. Prices are competitive too.
    Because Amerika has been the biggest economy in the world since WW2? 15 trillion compared to China's 4 trillion?

    Because America has a political system that is sustainable for geneations to come, a democracy is allows its citizens free speech, high gdp per capita, largest film industry, most air craft carriers, biggest military and generally stands up for the right things in the world?

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    Default Re: A Euro collapse - The WHAT IFs

    Quote Originally Posted by theDoors View Post
    Watch the first 4 mins of the movie The Kingdom. Is a good primer to the state of affairs between the Saud family and the US government.



    Saudi Arabia the leader of OPEC, chooses to priced oil exclusively in USD because of the support the US government has rendered the Saud family to this present day.

    It does not matter in which currency any one want to quote the price of their products and produce. Ultimately the buyer and the seller will always cross link that currency to the US dollar. Even Iran.

    There is absolutely no financial gain or favor granted to anyone
    by pricing one's goods and services in US dollar.

    The bottom line is, there is no other way to price world trade than quote in US dollar. It s the reference and reserve currency of the world.

    Even the Euro..when Dr Mahathir wanted to price Tin and Rubber in Euro, the cross rate of the Euro to a Dollar was the basis while pricing the commodity in Euro.

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    Default Re: A Euro collapse - The WHAT IFs

    Quote Originally Posted by senatorabudelai View Post
    Personally I feel the whole European Union is a bad idea.

    They are trying to do a USA in Europe, which is impossible. These countries all have different languages and standards of living.

    The biggest problem in Europe today is the European Union...too idealistic, too impractical.

    Poorer migrants are flooding into rich countries, the Euro faces collapse, no more borders between countries, etc..it is looking to be a nightmare.
    The Eurozone is not monolithic like the USA.
    ( Or the Euro like the USD )

    Euro has 22 member parliaments to reflect its stability and must indirectly content with various regional political pressure and considerations that may impact the stability of the Euro , some way or the other.

    The US dollar does not have that handicap.

    As far as China is concerned, regardless how big its economy and GDP is, it just do not have the established intangibles needed to instill confidence and trust from the global financial markets and institutions. And it may take a very very long time ( if ever ) communist China does come to have these established intangibles.

    All this talk about Yuan being a reserve currency is simply a myth and hype. The markets will not bite such alternatives and will always seek the trust and dependability of the US dollar backed by its democratic open transparent institutions.

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    Default Re: A Euro collapse - The WHAT IFs

    Quote Originally Posted by GoFlyKiteNow View Post
    It does not matter in which currency any one want to quote the price of their products and produce. Ultimately the buyer and the seller will always cross link that currency to the US dollar. Even Iran.

    There is absolutely no financial gain or favor granted to anyone
    by pricing one's goods and services in US dollar.

    The bottom line is, there is no other way to price world trade than quote in US dollar. It s the reference and reserve currency of the world.

    Even the Euro..when Dr Mahathir wanted to price Tin and Rubber in Euro, the cross rate of the Euro to a Dollar was the basis while pricing the commodity in Euro.
    The greatest beneficiary of Petrodollar, pricing of oil in USD, is the United States of America.

    How else can US Federal Reserve, print 7 trillion dollars of paper money to inflate their economy at will, if oil was not priced in USD, creating this artificial demand for the Greenback?

    Why would anyone want a reserve currency that is being printed like toilet paper?

    How can the US be the biggest debtor nation without ever having to repay a single cent of the principal of it's debt?
    this is the end... the end my friend

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    Default Re: A Euro collapse - The WHAT IFs

    Quote Originally Posted by senatorabudelai View Post
    Because Amerika has been the biggest economy in the world since WW2? 15 trillion compared to China's 4 trillion?

    Because America has a political system that is sustainable for geneations to come, a democracy is allows its citizens free speech, high gdp per capita, largest film industry, most air craft carriers, biggest military and generally stands up for the right things in the world?
    It's not too far from the truth. Having 100,000 thousand US troops stationed in Iraq permanently is a good way to deter the Saud family from switching from USD to Euros in pricing oil. They can easily crossed the border from Iraq into Saudi Arabia, should there be any changes in the Saudi regime.
    this is the end... the end my friend

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    Default Re: A Euro collapse - The WHAT IFs

    PAPER DOLLAR EMPIRE - Why War for Oil...a brief history
    http://groups.google.com/group/total...3cfa709db71b50

    For a country, or an empire, to go to war, Either to gain more wealth Or to
    defend itself. The benefits must outweigh the costs.

    In understanding ongoing things today A little history goes a long way…

    In 1945 was born with Bretton Woods the ‘American Empire’
    The world had adopted a new reserve currency: the United States dollar.
    It would be the backbone of international exchange.
    And why not? The American economy was supremely robust
    And two successive wars had taken their toll on Europe
    Who was busy rebuilding the glory it had lost.

    The idea was nothing really new, now or then:
    To have a gold standard backing the US currency.
    In truth the U.S. dollar wasn’t convertible to gold fully,
    But foreign governments could ask to convert it on demand.
    For quite some time this system worked
    Most of those dollars were handed over to foreigners
    in exchange for economic goods,
    without necessarily the prospect
    of buying them back at the same value.

    But then Murphy’s spectre reared its mocking head
    The US With irresponsible deficit management at home
    And a pathological pursuit of war abroad
    Against the global communist threat
    In an little place called Viet-Nam
    The once allies began losing faith in Uncle Sam

    When in early 70’s foreign nations,
    Notably Britain and France, demanded,
    For their US dollars due payment in gold
    On August 15,1971 The U.S. Government defaulted
    This was termed the ‘Nixon Shock’ (or so I was told)
    The free market of supply and demand
    Would set the value of the currency.

    Thus So far The US had extracted
    An enormous amount of economic goods
    From the rest of the world,
    With no intention or more to the point
    The ability to return those goods,
    The world could not do anything about it
    The world was powerless to respond,
    The world was in a real sense being taxed!

    Essentially, to the cynical well-informed outsider,
    The U.S. had officially declared itself an Empire.

    The Free-floating dollar soon precariously sank
    While it was getting real expensive to fill up a tank

    From that point on, to sustain this Paper Empire
    And to continue to tax the rest of the world,
    The United States had to force the world
    To continue to accept ever-depreciating dollars
    It kept printing in exchange for economic goods
    And to have the world hold more and more
    Of those ever-depreciating dollars.
    It had to give the world
    An ECONOMIC REASON to hold dollars,
    And that reason was OIL.

    In 1972-73 an iron-clad arrangement
    Was forged with the House of Saud
    Unwavering American support of the Saudi regime
    In exchange for accepting ONLY U.S. dollars for its oil.
    The rest of OPEC was to follow suit and also accept only US dollars.

    Because the world had to buy oil from the Arab oil countries,
    It had the reason to hold dollars as payment for oil.
    Because the world needed ever increasing quantities of oil
    At ever increasing oil prices,
    The world’s demand for dollars could only increase.
    Even though dollars could no longer be exchanged for gold,
    They were now in effect exchangeable for oil.
    The gold had now become black

    The currency was now backed with this system
    And -if warranted- with US military muscle.
    The benefit of this system is for America indeed enormous.

    For almost every country in the world
    Needs to stockpile dollars to purchase oil.
    Since Everyone accepts dollars because dollars can buy oil.
    The world’s exports compete to capture dollars
    To service their dollar-denominated debts
    And to stockpile reserves of more dollars
    To sustain the value of their own currencies.
    America has the luxury of maintaining a trade deficit
    Because its greatest export is in effect the dollar,
    Which it can print at will.
    This is called 'dollar hegemony.'
    Simply put: the dollar rules!

    The US produces dollars
    While the rest of the world
    Produces things that dollars can buy.
    These dollars then make their way back home
    Through New-York and London banks,
    Recycled through the ‘petroleum exchanges’
    Where Wealthy nation become eager to loan money
    to US to finance its deficit through bonds of the treasury.
    Collecting interest on the dollar
    And leverage on US policy by owning its debt.
    This system is called ‘petrodollar recycling.’

    At this point in time
    The dollar accounts for 70% of the world transactions
    It has become the Economic Lifeblood of the globe.
    Those who do not have the sign of the dollar
    Cannot buy oil.

    But history tells us there is always a breaking point

    Even America couldn’t sustain this kind of spending indefinitely
    As the US prints more and more dollars,
    It loses value vis-à-vis the euro,
    The new European Union currency.

    Since EU nations are now the major purchasers of oil of the world
    The pricing in euro may become tempting for the some producing countries
    – that may want to profit as well as hit America where it hurts.

    In the fall of 2000, There was a man
    Who, instead of US dollars, did demand
    Euros for his oil. His name:
    Saddam Hussein.

    This was purely a political decision.
    ‘No trading in the currency of the enemy state’ as he put it.
    But at the end of the day
    It became apparent that he meant business.
    It could be said that some people obviously thought
    That this practice if left unchecked might gain momentum
    In the international community and challenge
    The status quo of the mighty dollar
    As reserve currency for the world
    The now one true unshakable god
    Of the western economy
    Precipitating the demise of the dollar
    – to put it another way:
    The oil-for-paper empire was under attack
    And the New-World Order responded.

    2003, Operation Iraqi Freedom was go!
    Indeed, two months after the United States invaded Iraq,
    The Iraqi Euro oil accounts were switched back to dollars,
    And oil was sold once again only for U.S. dollars.
    No longer could the world buy oil from Iraq with Euro.
    Iraq was now sovereign, and freedom would reign!
    The Freedom to purchase oil in dollars, not euros.

    So the war in Iraq was maybe not so much about
    Iraq’s nuclear capabilities,
    Or Iraq’s program of weapons of mass destruction
    Or about defending human rights,
    Or about spreading democracy,
    Or even about seizing oil fields;
    As it was about defending the dollar.
    Not keeping the American public safe
    But the actual US-lead-world economy safe.
    The New-World Order had been defended.
    An example had been set:
    Anyone demanding payment in currencies
    Other than U.S. Dollars
    Could be likewise punished.

    There was then Saddam
    And now there is Iran.

    Since the spring of 2003, Iran has required payments
    In the euro currency for its exports both European and Asian.
    Although the oil pricing for trades are still denominated in the dollar
    Plans are being made by Iran to start a bourse
    -a commodities exchange – for oil in Euros (of course) .
    If this is allowed to happen then
    The Dollar will be openly challenged
    As a reserve currency on the global market
    Some alarmists have labelled this a threat
    To the US ‘more devastating than any atomic bomb! ’

    A seemingly senseless war with Iran
    With a nuclear-terror agenda
    Would be more a of a pre-emptive strike
    -A necessary evil for the right wing,
    A despotic act seen by the left wing-
    Against a more democratic world economy
    An economy that is, in all cases, inevitable historically.

    Let the reader be reminded that oil is a finite resource.
    And the more dollars printed the more it depreciates
    And that a deficit is seldom a positive thing.

    In the Real world however there would be limited devastation.
    Isn’t the global economy in too deep in this system already?
    After all 70% of all trade reserves are in US dollars.
    Any sudden shift in the value of the dollar would bring disaster for
    everyone
    The modern world interlinked economy is such a fragile thing
    A sudden blood transfusion might kill the patient.
    Added to this that the system of using one currency
    is mighty convenient for everyone in the oil industry
    And like my father so often told me
    ‘Economy makes politics. Not the other way’
    So nothing will happen overnight
    Because nothing can.

    But As history taught us
    Time and time again
    And as we choose to ignore facts
    You cannot stop the march of events.
    History stops for no one.
    As one’s times come to an end
    To let Another one’s begin
    Each tragic play has to come to its final act
    For a new one to be staged.

    But to this author the real tragedy
    Is the leaders inability to cope
    To accept changes gracefully
    To relinquish power
    With changing tides of time
    To cling to it like a dog to its bone
    Blind ambition marred by lack of vision
    That leads to Limited options.
    That ultimately demand human sacrifice

    In the end there is a price to pay
    And the ones to pay are the people, WE, always
    Which ironically have the power to affect changes
    But almost always choose never to exercise it.
    At present it could be said even surrendered it,
    Out of ignorance - borne out of careful misinformation-
    to gain a superficial sense of security
    or worse, laziness, the results of comfort’s numbing addiction.
    Cozing up to a beer watching the next war unfolding on TV!

    For a country, or an empire, to go to war,
    Either to gain more wealth
    Or to defend itself.
    The benefits must outweigh the costs.
    So what will it be:
    Monetary compromise
    Or continued petrodollar warfare?
    A question for the wise:
    How much gold, oil or paper
    Is worth for lives to be lost
    And the living to suffer?
    Or do YOU even care?

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
    --
    'I am a firm believer in the people. If given the truth, they can be
    depended upon to meet any national crisis. The great point is to bring them
    the real facts.'
    - Abraham Lincoln

    'Whenever the people are well-informed, they can be trusted with their own
    government. Whenever things get so far wrong as to attract their notice,
    they may be relied on to set them to rights.'
    - Thomas Jefferson

    'The belief that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction was the main alleged
    reason for the March 2003 invasion of Iraq.'
    - 2003 invasion of Iraq - Wikipedia

    'The three current oil markers are all US dollar denominated: North
    America's West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) , North Sea Brent Crude, and
    the UAE Dubai Crude. The two major oil bourses are the New York Mercantile
    Exchange (NYME) in New York City and the International Petroleum Exchange
    (IPE) in London. The proposed Iranian bourse would establish a fourth oil
    marker, denominated by the euro.'
    - Iranian oil bourse - Wikipedia

    Please don't take this all for granted. By all means do your own research
    and form your opinion on the matter. You can start with 'dollard hegemony',
    'petrodollar warfare' at Wikipedia which are two very hotly disputed
    articles (neutrality) and may be deleted at anytime. Some interesting links
    from there, both pro and critical.

    http://www.iranian.ws/iran_news/publ...le_25030.shtml

    The same applies to the China Dollar Scam, etc. , since most World Trade
    demands dollars, just like the oil trade.

    US Petrodollar Scam Ends

    Persian Journal

    Letters & Blogs
    US Petrodollar Scam Ends
    By Ziggy
    May 8, 2008, 19:44

    Persian Journal

    I truly believe that the American people do not realise the real reason for
    the Iraq war and the current war threat against Iran. It's not the nukes,
    it's not the terrorism and it's not the oil. It's all about the protection
    and propping up of the greatest con-job in recent history, the US
    Petrodollar Scam.

    Back in 1971, the USA printed and spent far more paper money than it could
    cover by gold. When the French demanded redemption of its dollar holdings in
    gold, The USA discovered that it could not honour the debt, thus committing
    an act of bankruptcy. So the USA went to the Saudis and cut a deal - we'll
    keep you in power, no mater what you do, as long as OPEC denominate all
    sales of oil in US dollars. The deal was done.

    From that point, every nation that needed to buy oil had to firstly hold US
    dollars, which meant that they exchanged their goods and services for
    dollars, which the Americans just printed. The Americans boiught their oil
    literally for free by printing those dollars and using inflation to reduce
    their value. The ultimate free lunch for the Americans at the expense of the
    rest of the world.

    However, the scam began to unravel when Saddam Hussein started selling
    Iraq's oil directly for Euro, abrogating the cosy arrangement the Americans
    had with OPEC. Thus Saddam had to be stopped. How? He could not be
    persuaded, so the USA concocted up a pretext to wage war and invade Iraq and
    the first thing the Americans did was to revert sales of oil back to
    dollars. The currency crisis was averted for the moment.

    But Hugo Chavez also started selling Venezuelan oil for currencies other
    than dollars, so there were a number of attempts on his life and "regime
    change", traceable right back to the CIA. The petrodollar cat was out of the
    bag.

    Iran, watching all of this, decided to kick The Great Satan in the goolies
    and do the same thing - sell oil for every currency EXCEPT US dollars. All
    of a sudden, despite intrusive IAEA inspections and compliance with the NPT
    and the inalienable right to enrich uranium, Iran became the next big
    threat.

    Sure, Iran was a threat to the USA, but not because of anything nuclear.
    What Iran was doing was compounding the economic destruction of the USA by
    becoming another member of the oil producers club that were bypassing NYMEX
    and IPE and selling oil for Euro, Yen and other currencies.

    Persian Journal

    The problem for the USA is that those dollars fund not only the American
    lifestyle and the free lunch at the expense of the rest of the world, but
    they fund the US military, which is used to force the American will onto
    nations that threaten the USA economically, such as Iran.

    So the shell game is coming to an end for the Americans. As the nations of
    the world find that they can buy oil for their own currencies instead of
    holding paper US dollars, more OPEC nations will abandon the dollar. The
    worst thing for the Americans is that eventually, they will also have to buy
    their oil with Euro or Rubles instead of just printing paper money to get
    it.

    That will be the end of the American Empire, the end of funding for the US
    military and the destruction of the US economy. This is why Iran is so
    dangerous and has to be stopped. It's nothing to do with nukes, just as it
    was nothing to do with WMD in Iraq.

    Actually the biggest WMD threat to the USA is the economic weapon. The great
    scam is coming to an end and there's not a lot that the USA can do about it,
    except start another world war. And can't you see that coming?
    this is the end... the end my friend

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