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Are We Neglecting the Food Crisis?

SNAblog

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http://www.asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1848&Itemid=351

Asia Sentinel, 29 Apr 2009, Alice Poon

Are We Neglecting the Food Crisis?

If the global food shortage crisis has made consumers in developed countries feel the sting of surging food prices, it can at the same time be a direct cause of malnutrition and starvation for people in poor countries.

Some economists tell us that we are in for a protracted deflationary period. Others tell us that rampant inflation is what we should expect. But a trip to the supermarket these days does tell us that retail food prices have generally shot up by double-digit percentages. Yet consumer price indices that governments (at least those in North America) announce seem incredibly tame. While consumers in developed countries are still silently bearing food price surges with a reluctant grin, the picture will not be pretty if their income levels keep deteriorating and unemployment keeps rising.

However, for many poor country folks, including those in Asia, the food price spike translates into something much starker than a thrifty choice of home-cooked meals over dining out – it is a matter of going hungry or death by starvation.

A study by the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific confirms that poverty is the leading cause for food insecurity in the Asia-Pacific region, which is home to 62 percent of the world’s undernourished.

A friend has sent me a link to a short film that speaks for itself. Here is the link for sharing:-

http://www.cultureunplugged.com:80/play/1081/Chicken-a-la- Carte

In 2008 we were bombarded with news reports about a serious global food shortage crisis. Unfortunately that crisis has not gone away and does not seem to be going away any time soon, according to an article titled “Is the global food crisis over?” on Voxeu.eu, which is an economic policy research portal backed by the European Union.

According to the article, despite international grain prices having come down from their peaks in 2008, they remain high when compared with their historical averages:-

- rice in March 2009 is 49% above its 10-year average;

- maize in April 2009 is 43% above its 10-year average;

- soybean in March 2009 is 36% above its 10-year average;

- wheat in April 2009 is 31% above its 10-year average.


Even the price of oil (Brent crude), despite its dramatic decline from its July 2008 peak, is still some 20% higher than its 10-year average.

Based on a report by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (“FAO”), "While in developed countries the 2008 cereal output is estimated 12.3% higher than in the previous year, in developing countries the expansion was just 2.3%. This mainly reflects a weak supply response in Asia, accounting for three-quarters of the developing countries’ production, where the aggregate cereal output remained virtually unchanged."

That is why the Asia Development Bank has predicted that Asia may be just one supply shock away from another round of food price spirals, according to the Voxeu article.

"Accounts and news reports from many parts of the world indicate that food (and even fertilizer and transport) prices have remained 'sticky' in many countries, suggesting that food prices faced by low-income and poor consumers are still relatively high…………… The FAO (2009b) also reports that, based on the national food prices information they have collected so far, poorer countries have experienced smaller declines in food prices in recent months. Many poor and low-income people – notably children and women – continue to be adversely affected by high food prices."

Another adverse factor is the sharp volatility in commodity and oil prices which has led to delays in or cancellations of investments in enhancing agricultural productivity, thus stunting the incentives to boost food supplies.

Topping it all is the global financial credit crunch and economic meltdown which on the one hand is preventing low-income farmers from boosting agricultural production, and on the other has monopolized world governments’ attention as they bury their heads in spinning out stimulus packages, leaving little or no attention span for the food crisis.

But, as the authors of the article warn, inaction by governments will only sow more seeds for future crises.

--------------------------
Latest updates at Singapore News Alternative:

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Latest videos added:

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4. Singapore's 2009 Growth - Bloomberg


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Vendetta

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Who said I am starving........screwed your loumoh kor hai, wife's cheebye, sister's cunt and daughter's peaches will make me feel siok enough......:biggrin:

Hahahahahaha! We know you ain't starving, you are very full with all the cum feast you have daily for free from all of us here fucking you upside down!

:biggrin:
 

NissanViP

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We have been neglecting about daily survival and 3 meal a day eversince singaporean beloved LKY open foreign policy flooding like tsunami.

And thats is the worst than food crisis.
 

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TRANSCRIPT OF MINISTER MENTOR LEE KUAN YEW'S INTERVIEW WITH HASLINDA AMIN OF BLOOMBERG NEWS ON 29 APRIL 2008 AT ISTANA
29 Apr 2008

AMIN: Let's start with food prices. Rice has surged to a record just about every other day. Is there perhaps a concern that instability in Asia could crop up?

LEE: It depends where it crops up. I don't think it will crop up in the big countries: China, Vietnam, India. In the rice-growing countries, it won't crop up: Indonesia. Maybe you have the Philippines in trouble, because they are a rice importer, they have not been growing as much rice as they are consuming. Pakistan is alright, Bangladesh, too.

Indonesia is an exporter, usually is an exporter, but they have been careful with their stock. I do not see rice as a big issue for the Asian countries, the big Asian countries where you could have upheavals.

AMIN: But the World Bank said today that 2 billion people are struggling with rising prices. And 100 million have just joined the ranks of the poor in the world.

LEE: But where are they? You are asking me about Asia, I've given you my assessment of Asia, of the countries I know. I can't tell you about the other rice-consuming countries in other continents. Generally, the prices of food, not just rice, wheat maize or corn, all the food items, meats, will be a bigger and bigger proportion of the budget of the working classes in Asia, including China.

AMIN: What do you think is the main cause of this rice shortage we're seeing right now?

LEE: Probably many causes. Some failed harvests. On the whole, many harvests are successful. Some diversion of food, not just rice, but other food products into biofuels, which starts speculation about shortages, so it leads to hoarding and we're not sure. The people manipulating the hedge funds are not sure how much of it is caused by hoarding. They are buying food futures and other commodities.

I'm not quite sure we will know exactly how much of this present rise is due to real shortages or shortages induced by expectations of shortages where people hold back supplies, where people buy more than they need to hoard. It will take some time to clarify. It's right for the world bodies to take prompt action because the masses at the very bottom of the pile will have a hard time.

AMIN: Prompt action, but is it prompt enough? The IMF has said it wants to help the developing nations that are struggling with rising prices. What else can international organizations and governments do to rescue these people?

LEE: I'm not an NGO, so I'm unable to answer your question. Unless you're completely an urbanized environment, there are always other alternatives to rice or maize. And tropical countries,there's tapioca, sweet potatoes, all kinds of root plants, which I had to eat during Japanese occupation. They've got carbohydrates. They've got a lot of starch and also fiber. Probably more fiber than rice or wheat or corn. But they will sustain life.

But if you're poor and in an urban situation and you can't grow root crops, then you're in trouble. I went through 3½ years of Japanese occupation, and Singapore was an urban situation, very little agriculture, but more than now, and people just dispersed and started to grow rice, ragi, and all kinds of alternatives to rice because rice imports couldn't come from Thailand and elsewhere -- no shipping. Sweet potatoes, tapioca, all kinds of root crops. And people survived.

AMIN: How about Asean? Should Asean do something about it? We have the biggest importer within Asean, the biggest exporter of rice within Asean as well. Should Asean consider something like a strategic rice reserve?

LEE: (Laughs) Who's going to maintain it? And who's going to bear the cost of it? The Singapore government insists on the rice traders keeping a two- to three-month supply. They have to maintain it. We allow them to even out the price of rice, from highs to lows, lows to highs, over the months. But they have to carry and roll over the stock. If you keep rice for long, you get weevils and all kinds of problems.

The Japanese, as you know, when they have surplus rice, they put them into plastic bags and sink them into the ocean, to keep them at least in a semi-refrigerated form. But in the tropics, we had rice in Japanese occupied Singapore, and kept for long, you have weevils and it goes moldy and all kinds of problems. So easy to talk theoretically about keeping rice stocks, but who has the expertise, who will have the stocks and who will pay for the costs?

And when the price of rice goes down, what do you do with these stocks, who will bear the loss? We keep a two to three-month supply so we know the problem. The big rice importer, I believe, is the Philippines, and the Philippines should be able to manage this.

AMIN: Minister Mentor, is the rice shock that we're experiencing now tantamount to the oil shocks we saw back in the 1970s?

LEE: No. It's only partially related in the sense that the U.S. dollar has gone down, the demand for oil has increased, but the supplies have become sticky because nobody is investing in new wells as fast as they're needed. So we're faced with very volatile oil prices. But I'm not sure it will just go up and up to $200 per barrel. At some time, it's going to hit its limits in spite of the demand from China and India, and there will be a mild slowdown or even a recession, and things will go into reverse order.

The hedge funds will go into commodities, and go into oil, gold and so on. They do not believe this is going to go up and down in a straight line. At some point, there's a turning. There's going to be a peak, and then it goes down. And you want to get off before it goes down.

AMIN: But as it turns out, the rise in commodity prices is really causing food prices to surge, and that's causing inflation to rise. And as a result, people are suffering. Is there a role for government subsidies in such a situation?

LEE: I'm not an international economist and I cannot say what other governments want to do. We are not a food-growing nation. So we're price takers. We import all our food. The only food we produce ourselves now is chicken and eggs, and even that is not enough. So we have to buy them from as many sources as possible to even out prices, to make sure that if supply fails from one source, we can get it from another source.

You have to decide: what is it that you can afford? In our case, we are price takers, we are not price givers. So, we go with the market. We try to even out by sourcing from various countries, and for the lowest paid, we give them what we call ``Work Fare.'' If you work, and you are below a certain income level, and more than a certain amount of your income goes into food, then we top it up. But other countries will find other solutions.

...(Click Here For More)...
 

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Second Protocol to Amend the Agreement on the ASEAN Food Security Reserve

The Governments of Negara Brunei Darussalam, the Republic of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Republic of the Philippines, the Republic of Singapore, the Kingdom of Thailand and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, Member States of Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN);

NOTING the Agreement on the ASEAN Food Security Reserve signed by the first five Member States of ASEAN in the City of New York, United States of America on 4 October 1979 (hereinafter referred to as "the Principal Agreement") and the Protocol to Amend the Agreement on the ASEAN Food Security Reserve signed in Bangkok on 22 October 1 982 (hereinafter referred to as the First Protocol ") and collectively referred to as 'the Agreement";

NOTING FURTHER that the Government of Negara Brunei Darussalam had joined the ASEAN on 7 January 1984 and had, on 13 October 1986, signed the Notification of Adherence to the Agreement and had, on 18 October 1986, deposited its Instrument of Ratification with the then Secretary-General of the ASEAN Secretariat whereby Negara Brunei Darussalam gave notice of its desire to subscribe and be treated as a party to the Agreement;

ALSO NOTING that the Government of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam had joined the ASEAN on 28 July 1995 and had agreed to subscribe or accede, as the case may be, to all Declarations, Treaties and Agreements in ASEAN; and that the Socialist Republic of Vietnam had, on 14 June 1 996, signed the Notification of Adherence to the Agreement and had, on 1 7 June 1 996, deposited its Instrument of Ratification with the Secretary-General of ASEAN whereby the Socialist Republic of Vietnam gave notice of its desire to subscribe and be treated as a party to the Agreement;

RECOGNISING the need to amend the Principal Agreement to reflect the latest developments in ASEAN, hereby invoke the provision of paragraph 5 of Article IX of the aforesaid Agreement;


HAVE AGREED AS FOLLOWS:
ARTICLE I

The first paragraph of the preamble of the Principal Agreement shall be amended to read as follows:

"The Governments of Negara Brunei Darussalam, the Republic of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Republic of the Philippines, the Republic of Singapore, the Kingdom of Thailand, and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, being members of the Association of South-East Asian Nations, which Association shall hereinafter be referred to as ASEAN:"


ARTICLE II
Paragraphs 2 and 3 of Article IV of the Principal Agreement shall be amended to read as follows:

2. Each ASEAN Member Country shall earmark, within or over and above its national reserve, a certain quantity of rice. Such earmarked quantities of rice shall constitute the ASEAN Emergency Rice Reserve, the total amount of which shall initially be 67,000 metric tons of rice.

3. The ASEAN Member Countries agree that the initial earmarked quantity of each ASEAN Member Country for the ASEAN Emergency Rice Reserve shall be as follows:

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Brunei Darussalam 3,000 metric tons
Indonesia 12,000 metric tons
Malaysia 6,000 metric tons
Philippines 12,000 metric tons
Singapore 5,000 metric tons
Thailand 15,000 metric tons
Vietnam 14,000 metric tons'

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


ARTICLE III
The following be inserted after Article VIII as a new Article VIIIA to the Principal Agreement:


"Accession of New Members

New Members of ASEAN shall accede to the Agreement on terms and conditions which are consistent with it, and which have been agreed between the new Members and the then existing Members of ASEAN.

The Instrument of Accession shall be deposited with the Secretary- General of ASEAN who shall promptly inform each ASEAN Member Country of such deposit."


ARTICLE IV
Article IX of the Principal Agreement shall be amended:

(a) by the insertion of the following as paragraph 3A "For each new Member of ASEAN which accedes to the Agreement, it shall enter into force on the date of the deposit of the Instrument of Accession with the Secretary-General of ASEAN."

(b) by the insertion of the words "or accession" after the word "ratification" in the second line of paragraph 4.


ARTICLE V

Paragraph 7 of the original Terms of Reference of the ASEAN Food Security Reserve Board (AFSRB), which is an Annex to the Agreement, is amended to read as follows:

" 7. To be responsible to the Senior Officials Meeting of the ASEAN Ministers on Agriculture and Forestry (SOM- AMAF) and to submit thereto reports of its activities."


ARTICLE VI

All other provisions of the Agreement not inconsistent herewith shall remain valid and binding and the foregoing amendments shall form an integral part of the Agreement.

This Protocol shall come into force upon signing by all the seven ASEAN Member Countries.

This protocol shall be deposited with the Secretary-General of ASEAN who shall promptly furnish a certified copy thereof to each ASEAN Member Country.
 

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China still believes in Asean partnership
By Wang Xiaolong
April 21, 2009

...China will provide 300,000 tonnes of rice to the emergency East Asia rice reserve to improve food security in the region. It also proposes to implement the China-Asean grain production capability enhancement action plan, which entails the establishment of high-quality, high-yield crop demonstration farms in Asean countries and agrotechnical training courses...
 

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Attorney-General’s Chambers Singapore Annual Report 2005/2006

...In addition, IAD officers advised on issues relating to the Coordinating Body on the Seas of South East Asia; the Climate Change Agreements Committee; the Agreement to Establish the ASEAN Single Window; the Aceh Monitoring Mission; the EU-Singapore Partnership and Cooperation Agreement; the Proliferation Security Initiative; East Asia Emergency Rice Reserve Agreement; and various visa abolition agreements...
 

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More land for growing food
More farm area, funds to be set aside to guard against global shortages
By Jessica Lim
Aug 1, 2009


ljfood01.jpg

A fund can be used by companies to explore if food zones identified overseas are suitable for investment of capital. -- PHOTO: AP

MORE land will be set aside for growing food while companies will be encouraged to work with farms overseas to ensure that Singapore has a ready and stable supply of produce. With the turbulence in food prices in recent years exposing the island state's vulnerability, these moves should mitigate supply shortages and sharp price increases in the long term.

'Local farming can serve as a strategic stockpile, like Newater,' said National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan in a speech at the Agri-Food and Veterinary Authority's food safety awards on Friday night.

More space for farms will be obtained by expanding existing farms or setting aside unused land parcels. It has been projected that over the next five years, the local supply of eggs should rise from 23 per cent to 30 per cent, fish from 4 per cent to 15 per cent and leafy vegetables from 7 per cent to 10 per cent.

A fund, the amount of which is not yet known, will be available for farmers to tap for upgrading and expansion. It can also be used by companies, such as those involved in import and distribution, to explore if food zones identified overseas are suitable for investment of capital.

Singapore now imports more than 90 per cent of its food, and the zones will be identified for six key imports - chicken, pork, fish, eggs, leafy vegetables and rice.

Companies will be encouraged to work with growers to farm specifically for Singapore, in addition to their local communities. 'We want to encourage our companies to increase their participation in the entire value chain from food production to distribution, to better secure supplies,' said Mr Mah.

Importers now cast a wide net, working with suppliers from over 30 countries. But these growers also supply to the rest of the world, so when there is a shortage, such as that just last year, a bidding war ensues. Singapore hopes to bypass such a scrap with its own assured supply.

'As Singapore imports most of its food, we are vulnerable to sharp changes in food supply and prices,' added Mr Mah. 'More needs to be done as we prepare ourselves to face the longer-term challenges affecting global food supply and demand.'

It is hoped that these new measures will prevent a repeat of the price inflation for food items that hit Singapore around this time last year. The situation sent the authorities scrambling to secure new lines of supply. An inter-agency committee was set up to study and review food supply policies. The new recommendations have sprung from that.

Manufacturers have welcomed the proposals. Mr Thomas Pek, managing director of home-grown soya sauce manufacturer Tai Hua, which imports up to 2,000 tonnes of soybeans a year, said his product went up in price last year following a shortage of the main ingredient.
 

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Catastrophic Fall in 2009 Global Food Production
by Eric deCarbonnel
Global Research, February 10, 2009


After reading about the droughts in two major agricultural countries, China and Argentina, I decided to research the extent other food producing nations were also experiencing droughts. This project ended up taking a lot longer than I thought. 2009 looks to be a humanitarian disaster around much of the world

To understand the depth of the food Catastrophe that faces the world this year, consider the graphic below depicting countries by USD value of their agricultural output, as of 2006.
Countries_by_agricultural_output-753925.gif


Now, consider the same graphic with the countries experiencing droughts highlighted.
Countries_by_agricultural_output%5B1%5D-747806.gif


The countries that make up two thirds of the world's agricultural output are experiencing drought conditions. Whether you watch a video of the drought in China, Australia, Africa, South America, or the US , the scene will be the same: misery, ruined crop, and dying cattle.
 

ScarFace

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China

The drought in Northern China, the worst in 50 years, is worsening, and summer harvest is now threatened. The area of affected crops has expanded to 161 million mu (was 141 million last week), and 4.37 million people and 2.1 million livestock are facing drinking water shortage. The scarcity of rain in some parts of the north and central provinces is the worst in recorded history.

The drought which started in November threatens over half the wheat crop in eight provinces - Hebei, Shanxi, Anhui, Jiangsu, Henan, Shandong, Shaanxi and Gansu.

Henan
China's largest crop producing province, Henan, has issued the highest-level drought warning. Henan has received an average rainfall of 10.5 millimeters since November 2008, almost 80 percent less than in the same period in the previous years. The Henan drought, which began in November, is the most severe since 1951.

Anhui
Anhui Province issued a red drought alert, with more than 60 percent of the crops north of the Huaihe River plagued by a major drought.

Shanxi
Shanxi Province was put on orange drought alert on Jan. 21, with one million people and 160,000 heads of livestock are facing water shortage.

Jiangsu
Jiangsu province has already lost over one fifth of the wheat crops affected by drought. Local agricultural departments are diverting water from nearby rivers in an emergency effort to save the rest.

Hebei
Over 100 million cubic meters of water has been channeled in from outside the province to fight Hebei's drought.

Shaanxi
1.34 million acres of crops across the bone-dry Shanxi province are affected by the worsening drought.

Shandong

Since last November, Shandong province has experienced 73 percent less rain than the same period in previous years, with little rainfall forecast for the future.

Relief efforts are under way. The Chinese government has allocated 86.7 billion yuan (about $12.69 billion) to drought-hit areas. Authorities have also resorted to cloud-seeding, and some areas received a sprinkling of rain after clouds were hit with 2,392 rockets and 409 cannon shells loaded with chemicals. However, there is a limit to what can be done in the face of such widespread water shortage.

As I have previously written, China is facing hyperinflation , and this record drought will make things worse. China produces 18% of the world's grain each year.
 

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Australia

Australia has been experiencing an unrelenting drought since 2004, and 41 percent of Australia's agriculture continues to suffer from the worst drought in 117 years of record-keeping. The drought has been so severe that rivers stopped flowing, lakes turned toxic, and farmers abandoned their land in frustration:

A) The Murray River stopped flowing at its terminal point, and its mouth has closed up.

B) Australia's lower lakes are evaporating, and they are now a meter (3.2 feet) below sea level. If these lakes evaporate any further, the soil and the m&d system below the water is going to be exposed to the air. The m&d will then acidify, releasing sulfuric acid and a whole range of heavy metals. After this occurs, those lower lake systems will essentially become a toxic swamp which will never be able to be recovered. The Australian government's only options to prevent this are to allow salt water in, creating a dead sea, or to pray for rain.

For some reason, the debate over climate change is essentially over in Australia.
 
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The United States

California
California is facing its worst drought in recorded history . The drought is predicted to be the most severe in modern times, worse than those in 1977 and 1991. Thousands of acres of row crops already have been fallowed, with more to follow. The snowpack in the Northern Sierra, home to some of the state's most important reservoirs, proved to be just 49 percent of average. Water agencies throughout the state are scrambling to adopt conservation mandates.

Texas
The Texan drought is reaching historic proportion . Dry conditions near Austin and San Antonio have been exceeded only once before—the drought of 1917-18. 88 percent of Texas is experiencing abnormally dry conditions, and 18 percent of the state is in either extreme or exceptional drought conditions. The drought areas have been expanding almost every month. Conditions in Texas are so bad cattle are keeling over in parched pastures and dying. Lack of rainfall has left pastures barren, and cattle producers have resorted to feeding animals hay. Irreversible damage has been done to winter wheat crops in Texas. Both short and long-term forecasts don't call for much rain at all, which means the Texas drought is set to get worse.

Augusta Region (Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina)
The Augusta region has been suffering from a worsening two year drought. Augusta's rainfall deficit is already approaching 2 inches so far in 2009, with January being the driest since 1989.

Florida
Florida has been hard hit by winter drought, damaging crops, and half of state is in some level of a drought.

La Niña likely to make matters worse
Enough water a couple of degrees cooler than normal has accumulated in the eastern part of the Pacific to create a La Niña, a weather pattern expected to linger until at least the spring. La Niña generally means dry weather for Southern states, which is exactly what the US doesn't need right now.

wagt_lanina_fma_precip%5B1%5D-747102.jpg
 

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South America

Argentina
The worst drought in half a century has turned Argentina's once-fertile soil to dust and pushed the country into a state of emergency. Cow carcasses litter the prairie fields, and sun-scorched soy plants wither under the South American summer sun. Argentina's food production is set to go down a minimum of 50 percent, maybe more. The country's wheat yield for 2009 will be 8.7 million metric tons, down from 16.3 million in 2008. Concern with domestic shortages (domestic wheat consumption being approximately 6.7 million metric ton), Argentina has granted no new export applications since mid January .

Brazil
Brazil has cut its outlook for the crops and will do so again after assessing damage to plants from desiccation in drought-stricken regions. Brazil is the world's second-biggest exporter of soybeans and third-largest for corn.

Brazil's numbers for corn harvesting:

Harvested in 2008: 58.7 million tons
January 8 forecast: 52.3 million tons
February 6 forecast: 50.3 metric tons (optimistic)
Harvested in 2009: ???

Paraguay
Severe drought affecting Paraguay's economy has pushed the government to declare agricultural emergency. Crops that have direct impact on cattle food are ruined, and the soy plantations have been almost totally lost in some areas.

Uruguay
Uruguay declared an "agriculture emergency" last month, due to the worst drought in decades which is threatening crops, livestock and the provision of fresh produce.
The a worsening drought is pushing up food and beverage costs causing Uruguay's consumer prices to rise at the fastest annual pace in more than four years in January.

Bolivia
There hasn't been a drop of rain in Bolivia in nearly a year. Cattle dying, crops ruined, etc…

Chile
The severe drought affecting Chile has caused an agricultural emergency in 50 rural districts, and large sectors of the economy are concerned about possible electricity rationing in March. The countries woes stem from the "La Niña" climate phenomenon which has over half of Chile dangling by a thread: persistently cold water in the Pacific ocean along with high atmospheric pressure are preventing rain-bearing fronts from entering central and southern areas of the country. As a result, the water levels at hydroelectric dams and other reservoirs are at all-time lows.
 

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Horn of Africa

Africa faces food shortages and famine . Food production across the Horn of Africa has suffered because of the lack of rainfall. Also, half the agricultural soil has lost nutrients necessary to grow plant, and the declining soil fertility across Africa is exacerbating drought related crop losses.

Kenya
Kenya is the worst hit nation in the region, having been without rainfall for 18 months. Kenya needs to import food to bridge a shortfall and keep 10 million of its people from starvation. Kenya's drought suffering neighbors will be of little help.

Tanzania
A poor harvest due to drought has prompted Tanzania to stop issuing food export permits. Tanzania has also intensified security at the border posts to monitor and prevent the export of food. There are 240,000 people in need of immediate relief food in Tanzania.

Burundi
Crops in the north of Burundi have withered, leaving the tiny East African country facing a severe food shortage

Uganda
Severe drought in northeastern Uganda's Karamoja region has the left the country on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe. The dry conditions and acute food shortages, which have left Karamoja near starvation, are unlikely to improve before October when the next harvest is due.

South Africa
South Africa faces a potential crop shortage after wheat farmers in the eastern part of the Free State grain belt said they were likely to produce their lowest crop in 30 years this year. South Africans are "extremely angry" that food prices continue to rise.

Other African nations suffering from drought in 2009 are: Malawi, Zambia, Swaziland, Somalia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Tunisia, Angola, and Ethiopia.
 

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Middle East and Central Asia

The Middle East and Central Asia are suffering from the worst droughts in recent history , and food grain production has dropped to some of the lowest levels in decades. Total wheat production in the wider drought-affected region is currently estimated to have declined by at least 22 percent in 2009. Owing to the drought's severity and region-wide scope, irrigation supplies from reservoirs, rivers, and groundwater have been critically reduced. Major reservoirs in Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria are all at low levels requiring restrictions on usage. Given the severity of crop losses in the region, a major shortage of planting seed for the 2010 crop is expected.

Iraq
In Iraq during the winter grain growing period, there was essentially no measurable rainfall in many regions, and large swaths of rain-fed fields across northern Iraq simply went unplanted. These primarily rain-fed regions in northern Iraq are described as an agricultural disaster area this year, with wheat production falling 80-98 percent from normal levels. The USDA estimates total wheat production in Iraq in 2009 at 1.3 million tons, down 45 percent from last year.

Syria
Syria is experienced its worst drought in the past 18 years, and the USDA estimates total wheat production in Syria in 2009 at 2.0 million tons, down 50 percent from last year. Last summer, the taps ran dry in many neighborhoods of Damascus and residents of the capital city were forced to buy water on the black market. The severe lack of rain this winter has exacerbated the problem.

Afghanistan
Lack of rainfall has led Afghanistan to the worst drought conditions in the past 10 years. The USDA estimates 2008/09 wheat production in Afghanistan at 1.5 million tons, down 2.3 million or 60 percent from last year. Afghanistan normally produces 3.5-4.0 million tons of wheat annually.

Jordan

Jordan's persistent drought has grown worse, with almost no rain falling on the kingdom this year. The Jordanian government has stopped pumping water to farms to preserve the water for drinking purposes.

Other Middle Eastern and Central Asian nations suffering from drought in 2009 are: The Palestinian Territories, Lebanon, Israel, Bangladesh, Myanmar, India, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Thailand, Nepal, Pakistan, Turkey, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Cyprus, and Iran.
 

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Lack of credit will worsen food shortage

A lack of credit for farmers curbed their ability to buy seeds and fertilizers in 2008/2009 and will limit production around the world. The effects of droughts worldwide will also be amplified by the smaller amount of seeds and fertilizers used to grow crops.

Low commodity prices will worsen food shortage

The low prices at the end of 2008 discouraged the planting of new crops in 2009. In Kansas for example, farmers seeded nine million acres, the smallest planting for half a century. Wheat plantings this year are down about 4 million acres across the US and about 1.1 million acres in Canada. So even discounting drought related losses, the US, Canada, and other food producing nations are facing lower agricultural output in 2009.

Europe will not make up for the food shortfall

Europe, the only big agricultural region relatively unaffected by drought, is set for a big drop in food production. Due to the combination of a late plantings, poorer soil conditions, reduced inputs, and light rainfall, Europe's agricultural output is likely to fall by 10 to 15 percent.

Stocks of foodstuff are dangerously low

Low stocks of foodstuff make the world's falling agriculture output particularly worrisome. The combined averaged of the ending stock levels of the major trading countries of Australia, Canada, United States, and the European Union have been declining steadily in the last few years:

2002-2005: 47.4 million tons
2007: 37.6 million tons
2008: 27.4 million tons

These inventory numbers are dangerously low, especially considering the horrifying possibility that China's 60 million tons of grain reserves doesn't actually exists .


Global food Catastrophe

The world is heading for a drop in agricultural production of 20 to 40 percent, depending on the severity and length of the current global droughts. Food producing nations are imposing food export restrictions. Food prices will soar, and, in poor countries with food deficits, millions will starve.

The deflation debate should end now

The droughts plaguing the world's biggest agricultural regions should end the debate about deflation in 2009. The demand for agricultural commodities is relatively immune to developments in the business cycles (at least compared to that of energy or base metals), and, with a 20 to 40 percent decline in world production, already rising food prices are headed significantly higher.

In fact, agricultural commodities NEED to head higher and soon, to prevent even greater food shortages and famine. The price of wheat, corn, soybeans, etc must rise to a level which encourages the planting of every available acre with the best possible fertilizers. Otherwise, if food prices stay at their current levels, production will continue to fall, sentencing millions more to starvation.

Competitive currency appreciation

Some observers are anticipating “competitive currency devaluations” in addition to deflation for 2009 (nations devalue their currencies to help their export sector). The coming global food shortage makes this highly unlikely. Depreciating their currency in the current environment will produce the unwanted consequence of boosting exports—of food. Even with export restrictions like those in China, currency depreciation would cause the outflow of significant quantities of grain via the black market.

Instead of “competitive currency devaluations”, spiking food prices will likely cause competitive currency appreciation in 2009. Foreign exchange reserves exist for just this type of emergency . Central banks around the world will lower domestic food prices by either directly selling off their reserves to appreciate their currencies or by using them to purchase grain on the world market.

Appreciating a currency is the fastest way to control food inflation. A more valuable currency allows a nation to monopolize more global resources (ie: the overvalued dollar allows the US to consume 25% of the world's oil despite having only 4% of the world's population). If China were to selloff its US reserves, its enormous population would start sucking up the world's food supply like the US has been doing with oil.

On the flip side, when a nation appreciates its currency and starts consuming more of the world's resources, it leaves less for everyone else. So when china appreciates the yuan, food shortages worldwide will increase and prices everywhere else will jump upwards. As there is nothing that breeds social unrest like soaring food prices, nations around the world, from Russia, to the EU, to Saudi Arabia, to India, will sell off their foreign reserves to appreciate their currencies and reduce the cost of food imports. In response to this, China will sell even more of its reserves and so on. That is competitive currency appreciation.

When faced with competitive currency appreciation, you do NOT want to be the world's reserve currency. The dollar is likely to do very poorly as central banks liquidate trillions in US holdings to buy food and appreciate their currencies.
 
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