Singapore most vulnerable to Trump's protectionist stance
Trump's withdrawal from TPP could hit FDI and jobs market.
Donald Trump's presidency will affect South East Asian states to varying degrees, with Singapore seen to be most affected by a more protectionist US trade policy and self-interested foreign policy, said BMI.
"Given that Singapore is a small, open economy with extensive trade and investment links to the US, we believe that Trump's shift towards a more protectionist stance and change in US foreign policy towards a more unilateral one will be negative for Singapore," it said.
According to the research house, Trump's announcement that the US will withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) will likely undermine Singapore's geopolitical strategy as well as have a negative impact on the trade-driven city-state's economy
Here's more from BMI:
The stalling of the TPP and Trump's comments suggest a rise in trade protectionism, which poses a threat to Singapore's economic development model. In addition, any move that contributes to increasing friction in international trade leaves small, open economies like Singapore worse off. Singapore's size means that it depends on a favourable international environment to achieve growth, and thrives when bigger countries abide by international norms.
However, Trump's pronouncements of a more self-interested US foreign policy could undermine the international economic framework, which the US has largely taken responsibility for upholding since World War II.
We have previously noted that the failure of the TPP would also undermine Singapore's carefully calibrated balancing act between the US and China.
The TPP is viewed in Singapore as a way of counterbalancing growing Chinese influence in the region and as a tangible sign of the US's commitment to Asia.
Washington's failure to ratify the TPP would thus be a considerable blow to Singapore's efforts at encouraging greater American involvement in the region.
It could also be viewed by Beijing as a sign of reduced US interest in the region, leading to greater Chinese assertiveness and contributing to greater uncertainty in an already volatile region. Given Singapore's unique relationship with China, being the only Chinese majority country in South East Asia, the city s tate is likely to face an increasingly difficult diplomatic landscape as it seeks to keep the US engaged in Asia while managing Chinese expectations.
Concerns over Trump's proposals to impose a 35% tax on products made by companies that move their production from the US to other countries could lead to a decline in investment in Singapore, with the US being the biggest sources of foreign direct investment (FDI), accounting for 15% of total FDI in 2014.
This would also undermine Singapore's growth model, with FDI being a key component of economic growth and source of good quality jobs.
Given the amount of uncertainty over Trump's actual policies, it is likely that US businesses could delay their FDI plans into Singapore until there is more clarity.
In terms of Singapore's exports, we believe that the direct impact will be muted, with overall exports to the US only accounting for approximately 5.0% of total exports.
As such, the impact on Singapore's economy is likely to stem from a decline in FDI, with spillover effects on the labour market
- See more at: http://sbr.com.sg/economy/more-news...mps-protectionist-stance#sthash.hJzoZBbp.dpuf
Trump's withdrawal from TPP could hit FDI and jobs market.
Donald Trump's presidency will affect South East Asian states to varying degrees, with Singapore seen to be most affected by a more protectionist US trade policy and self-interested foreign policy, said BMI.
"Given that Singapore is a small, open economy with extensive trade and investment links to the US, we believe that Trump's shift towards a more protectionist stance and change in US foreign policy towards a more unilateral one will be negative for Singapore," it said.
According to the research house, Trump's announcement that the US will withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) will likely undermine Singapore's geopolitical strategy as well as have a negative impact on the trade-driven city-state's economy
Here's more from BMI:
The stalling of the TPP and Trump's comments suggest a rise in trade protectionism, which poses a threat to Singapore's economic development model. In addition, any move that contributes to increasing friction in international trade leaves small, open economies like Singapore worse off. Singapore's size means that it depends on a favourable international environment to achieve growth, and thrives when bigger countries abide by international norms.
However, Trump's pronouncements of a more self-interested US foreign policy could undermine the international economic framework, which the US has largely taken responsibility for upholding since World War II.
We have previously noted that the failure of the TPP would also undermine Singapore's carefully calibrated balancing act between the US and China.
The TPP is viewed in Singapore as a way of counterbalancing growing Chinese influence in the region and as a tangible sign of the US's commitment to Asia.
Washington's failure to ratify the TPP would thus be a considerable blow to Singapore's efforts at encouraging greater American involvement in the region.
It could also be viewed by Beijing as a sign of reduced US interest in the region, leading to greater Chinese assertiveness and contributing to greater uncertainty in an already volatile region. Given Singapore's unique relationship with China, being the only Chinese majority country in South East Asia, the city s tate is likely to face an increasingly difficult diplomatic landscape as it seeks to keep the US engaged in Asia while managing Chinese expectations.
Concerns over Trump's proposals to impose a 35% tax on products made by companies that move their production from the US to other countries could lead to a decline in investment in Singapore, with the US being the biggest sources of foreign direct investment (FDI), accounting for 15% of total FDI in 2014.
This would also undermine Singapore's growth model, with FDI being a key component of economic growth and source of good quality jobs.
Given the amount of uncertainty over Trump's actual policies, it is likely that US businesses could delay their FDI plans into Singapore until there is more clarity.
In terms of Singapore's exports, we believe that the direct impact will be muted, with overall exports to the US only accounting for approximately 5.0% of total exports.
As such, the impact on Singapore's economy is likely to stem from a decline in FDI, with spillover effects on the labour market
- See more at: http://sbr.com.sg/economy/more-news...mps-protectionist-stance#sthash.hJzoZBbp.dpuf
