Chitchat What will be Singapore's biggest security threat in next 5 years

External Threats:

(i) Gradual Islamization of Malaysia. The Malaysian constitution explicitly upholds Malaysia as a secular state even as it recognizes Islam as the religion of the Federation. In recent years, there has been an aggressive push to blur that line.

(ii) Continued problem of radical terror cells operating in Indonesia and increasingly the immediate region. No elaboration required.

(iii) China's aggression and increased militancy. As China's 35-year economic miracle wanes, the Chinese govt needs to keep its people united. The obvious method is to stoke the fires of nationalism. The militancy and aggression is part of this strategy. Faced with severe inequality which will serve as a tinderbox as the economy slows, China may see the need to take even more aggressive measures in the coming months and years so as to maintain the unity of the Han Chinese core and exert powerful control over Hong Kong to show other fringe regions that no aspiration toward independence or cessation whatsoever will be tolerated.

Internal Threats:

(i) A weak and indecisive PAP govt lacking in leadership. Weak leadership, lack of talented people wanting to join the party, will lead to a succession crisis and possible split within the party. The PAP has shown itself to be clueless and utterly unprepared to take Singapore forward. Fearful of losing its grip, the PAP may start behaving erratically and enact draconian measures to clamp down on fundamental freedoms and civil liberties even more harshly than LKY himself did. A paranoid party may even start making fundamental mistakes with regards to managing the economy, which could lead to severe hardships for Singaporeans.

(ii) Failure of security and defence forces. Again, this would be a consequence of a weak government. Our generals and commanders lack war experience and our intelligence officers may lack the proper training needed to identify threats. It is only a matter of time before another major lapse occurs. Worse, a foreign power may smell blood and be tempted to make a move. Our vulnerability in the defence and security front cannot be underestimated.

What will be Singapore's biggest threat in next 5 years? Internal or external?

Many of us view these as our greatest threats for singapore

(i) Sinkie opposition getting their act together. WP has been growing in strength, and Chee is convincing a larger number of people that he's the sinkie version of Gandhi or Mandela. Opposition have no experience not ability to lead the country, and there is a fear they will expose all national secrets out of vindictiveness against PAP.

(ii) Islamization of Singapore. Singapore unofficially follows Malaysia's Islamic rules. Other religions were told not to preach to Malay-Muslims. We follow the basic rule that a m&d is born a Muslim and will always be a Muslim. If mudland views tudung as a must, sinkie mudlanders are expected to wear the tudung too. If you marry a Malay, you are expected to convert to Islam. The m&d is not supposed to leave Islam. The view of Islamic supremacy is subtly sent to non-Muslims, that Muslims can get non-Muslims to convert to Islam, but the reverse is strictly taboo. CNA made a national program of people converting to Islam during marriage as an example of "racial" tolerance, but will not feature any info about Muslims leaving Islam because of marriage.

(iii) South China sea issue. This is a recent threat, and there is a fear that if China secures its control of the 9-dashed line, China will make a bid for the seas further south. First, China will send lots of boats into your waters, degrade your territorial waters into "contested territory", and gradually over time, take over the seas. China is not going to take over the land because they have seen how expensive non-stop guerilla warfare can be. It's hard to do guerilla warfare on the open seas.

JohnTan said:

(iii) South China sea issue. This is a recent threat, and there is a fear that if China secures its control of the 9-dashed line, China will make a bid for the seas further south. First, China will send lots of boats into your waters, degrade your territorial waters into "contested territory", and gradually over time, take over the seas. China is not going to take over the land because they have seen how expensive non-stop guerilla warfare can be. It's hard to do guerilla warfare on the open seas.

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You are spot on with regard to this.

Islam in Singapore is well managed. In fact, it is evangelical and prosperity-based Christian gospels that has been left unchecked. Fortunately for you, John tan, this favours your political masters, the PAP. These bunch are basically PAP voters.

Thick Face Black Heart said:

Islam in Singapore is well managed. In fact, it is evangelical and prosperity-based Christian gospels that has been left unchecked. Fortunately for you, John tan, this favours your political masters, the PAP. These bunch are basically PAP voters.

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Prosperity gospel believers do not engage in terrorism or rioting.

Prosperity teaching basically motivates the church members to work harder at their jobs and be more productive in all areas of their lives, especially in wealth creation and health. Prosperity gospel also promotes a stable society to achieve all these. Their only flaw is their relentless donation drive, and occasional tricksters scamming gullible folks for money. But we also have that at those who buy expensive amulets at temples.

depoliticalisation - ie the disinterest of the youngsters in politics.

complacency - both towards external & internal threats because people and now mobile, they work anywhere and travel everywhere. No more putting down roots into Singapore. The oldies are stuck and cannot move, lack of will, financials and ability. PAP is left carrying the baby. Oppo sees this problem and is happy to let PAP continue to carry the baby and be the government.

China and the South China Sea problem. With USA disinterested in the region, China's aggression grew and they adopt the divide and conquer strategy. ASEAN is like shit and the major powers in the SEA is as trustworthy as a Jew. Singapore being tiny and with loss of USA as a backer, has little or no voice. We are stymied and shirvelling before dying as a nation. Finally Indonesia swallow it up and become part of Riau Province.

China's rising militancy coincides nicely with the time when it started becoming a net importer of raw materials rather than a net exporter, and this is not surprising.

The main global shipping lanes are patrolled (and hence dominated) by the US. But China needs to secure its access to not just raw materials to sustain its monstrous industrial powerhouse, but also, secure freedom to do business with whoever they please. Even their traditional advantage - cheap Chinese labour and low cost - is now being superseded by other 3rd world countries. And now, the Chinese economic miracle is slowing.

These myriad forces put China in a insecure position. The various challenges issued by China are an indirect confrontation to US naval power.

the FAP has always been the biggest threat.

Too many old Sporeans who will be bullied by the foreigners now living in Spore.

dwindling supply of cardboards resulting in lack of exercise for pioneer sinkies.

You can safely rule China out as a threat where Singapore is concerned. China has been focusing on resource rich 3rd world countries. Look at their forays into nearly all the African countries. Economic dominance and conquest is high on their priority. Take the latest incident where they secured Malaysia's rail contracts by knowingly paying inflated prices for land so that Najib can cover the losses for 1MDB. There is nothing that Singapore has that will appeal to the Chinese.

In Geopolitical terms and in order to project power Myamar is strategically more important as it will allow it to possess a blue water navy.

The key actors in the South China Sea saga is the US and China followed by Japan and South Korea. Even the Philippines is a minor actor. Singapore to them is a nuisance factor.


Our external threats continue to be Malaysia and Indonesia in the hands of the wrong leader. Our entire military is rightly geared to handle this threat. When Argentine's Military Junta on facing rapidly declining economy and growing resentment, decided to invade the Falklands to divert local anger over their mismanagement. A wayward leader in Malaysia might do just the same.

Internal threat will be no different to any other nation - both economic and military espionage and terrorism facilitated by locals etc.

A more appropriate terminology or category for poor commanders etc is not internal threat but "weakness" or "vulnerability".

One particular weakness as a country is the scholar/technocrat model that began in 1971. We depend on a very narrow pool for country leadership where candidates are picked at age 18. Its a closed system and further weakened by protectionist measures that helps perpetuates its being. These measures include gerrymandering, GRC, use of People's Association, posting to GLCs etc. These helps to retain the model when it clearly signs of incompetence or mediocrity.

The second weakness Singapore faces is the racial segregation policy which was not intended to be a policy which however ended up as one. HDB race quota, formation of self-help racial groups such as mendaki, sinda and CDAC plus SAP schools.

The third weakness is our Education system. We created 2 generations of exam smart, compliant and risk adverse kids. No creativity, no entrepreneurs zeal and leadership is questionable.

The fourth weakness is the use of economic parameters to measure success. Such an approach allows for reverse engineering to achieve a predetermined outcome, mask social issues and gives a false sense of achievement. This has led to erroneous population policies, opening of floodgates to under-qualified migrants and the inability to create a second Jurong Industrial success story.

JohnTan said:

Many of us view these as our greatest threats for singapore

(iii) South China sea issue. This is a recent threat, and there is a fear that if China secures its control of the 9-dashed line, China will make a bid for the seas further south. First, China will send lots of boats into your waters, degrade your territorial waters into "contested territory", and gradually over time, take over the seas. China is not going to take over the land because they have seen how expensive non-stop guerilla warfare can be. It's hard to do guerilla warfare on the open seas.

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Im not worried....we have already secured the cooperation of the indian government to defend its interests and significant human capital in singapore....india will be supplying a fleet and aircraft carrier to help us. God forbid if anything happens to their citizens singapore might really collapse.

The Ah Tiongs and Ah Nehs are taking over sinkaporee ...both countries have a sizeable fifth column on this island. It is not whether but when.

winnipegjets said:

The Ah Tiongs and Ah Nehs are taking over sinkaporee ...both countries have a sizeable fifth column on this island. It is not whether but when.

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realizing the imbalance they're offsetting these 2 blocs with pinoys and burmese.

eatshitndie said:

realizing the imbalance they're offsetting these 2 blocs with pinoys and burmese.

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So the island can be carved out to four precints, one for each group. Sinkees will be banished to Pulau Ubin, St John, Kusu and Sisters islands.

winnipegjets said:

So the island can be carved out to four precints, one for each group. Sinkees will be banished to Pulau Ubin, St John, Kusu and Sisters islands.

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a,b,c,d,e (abang, baba, cina, dalit, eurasian) in the new and old presidential cycle will be replaced by the 4 immigrant groups. the old 4 languages of english, malay, mandarin, tamil will give way to tionglish, hindiglish, tagaloglish, and myanmaglish. it pays to be of burmese descent in sg starting a few years ago.

JHolmesJr said:

Im not worried....we have already secured the cooperation of the indian government to defend its interests and significant human capital in singapore....india will be supplying a fleet and aircraft carrier to help us. God forbid if anything happens to their citizens singapore might really collapse.

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India already has 4 of its people in cabinet. They will lead the takeover of sinkapore and make it the next state of India.

The Ah Tiongs are not as organized. There is NO free trade between sinkapore and China that allows unlimited Ah Tiongs to move here.

scroobal said:

You can safely rule China out as a threat where Singapore is concerned. China has been focusing on resource rich 3rd world countries. Look at their forays into nearly all the African countries. Economic dominance and conquest is high on their priority. Take the latest incident where they secured Malaysia's rail contracts by knowingly paying inflated prices for land so that Najib can cover the losses for 1MDB. There is nothing that Singapore has that will appeal to the Chinese.

In Geopolitical terms and in order to project power Myamar is strategically more important as it will allow it to possess a blue water navy.

The key actors in the South China Sea saga is the US and China followed by Japan and South Korea. Even the Philippines is a minor actor. Singapore to them is a nuisance factor.

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You might be right. Singapore no doubt has never been of any importance to the "main actors", as you put it, but will we suffer the fallout of that conflict? Maybe not in the form of a direct "security threat", but first, on the economic front, and then secondly, because of the large numbers of PRCs studying, working (and whoring here), they will become a tinderbox of their own? Possible?

Thick Face Black Heart said:

You might be right. Singapore no doubt has never been of any importance to the "main actors", as you put it, but will we suffer the fallout of that conflict? Maybe not in the form of a direct "security threat", but first, on the economic front, and then secondly, because of the large numbers of PRCs studying, working (and whoring here), they will become a tinderbox of their own? Possible?

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tiong strategic thinkers are well aware of the historic majestic might of the british empire and her royal navy and subsequent successor the u.s. and the u.s. navy. and how they secure geo-strategic choke points for shipping and naval movements all over the world. gibraltar, cape town, suez, panama, sg. these naval and shipping strategic choke points have not changed except perhaps for cape town which did not factor much in ww2. sg is and will be on the prc radar of shipping choke points until they find an alternative such as the new silk road (one belt) or isthmus of kra to raw material sources in the middle east and africa.

http://map.norsecorp.com

Go to the above link if u are surfing with a PC.
Stare at it for 15-20min and you will see Sg kanna cyber attacks from China in LIVE MODE.