Nothing scientific bro, but a mash of past results, the usual bias and external variables.
BB is solid PAP ground is a major factor. Tharman and his team has done very well in that part of the World. Chee has previously faced Tharman and his GRC team in that geography in 2001 and only got 20.2% of the votes. There are also no burning issues. So the only external factor that will help make a dent in the number for SDP is voters sense of feeling in regard to David Ong and his adultery and the fact that it is a minority candidate and if identity markers plays a part.
As to SDP and the internal factors are its history of poor quality party members though well meaning, associates and advisors since the split from Chiam. Vincent and the team that contested 2011 cannot be regarded as followers of SDP for obvious reasons. They then needed a ready party platform in 2011 logistics wise. Chee is also known for his weak strategy and poor tactics. There is a reason why the other parties are not keen to contest this part of the World even during GE and especially BB. Even SDP knows that by sending a retired Tamil school teacher to contest it during the last GE.
Then lastly the latest performance - 2015. Many felt that it was Chee's best performance, nothing controversial and he had outstanding partner in PT but the results were dismal - 33.4%. And mind you many people do not rate Vivian Balakrishnan and Ms Chut Pattern Sim Ann. It will interesting as the demographics for BT-Holland would be the opposite of BB.
BB is solid PAP ground is a major factor. Tharman and his team has done very well in that part of the World. Chee has previously faced Tharman and his GRC team in that geography in 2001 and only got 20.2% of the votes. There are also no burning issues. So the only external factor that will help make a dent in the number for SDP is voters sense of feeling in regard to David Ong and his adultery and the fact that it is a minority candidate and if identity markers plays a part.
As to SDP and the internal factors are its history of poor quality party members though well meaning, associates and advisors since the split from Chiam. Vincent and the team that contested 2011 cannot be regarded as followers of SDP for obvious reasons. They then needed a ready party platform in 2011 logistics wise. Chee is also known for his weak strategy and poor tactics. There is a reason why the other parties are not keen to contest this part of the World even during GE and especially BB. Even SDP knows that by sending a retired Tamil school teacher to contest it during the last GE.
Then lastly the latest performance - 2015. Many felt that it was Chee's best performance, nothing controversial and he had outstanding partner in PT but the results were dismal - 33.4%. And mind you many people do not rate Vivian Balakrishnan and Ms Chut Pattern Sim Ann. It will interesting as the demographics for BT-Holland would be the opposite of BB.
