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disintegration of EU n Euro$ 欧盟解体悲剧

taksinloong

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https://next.ft.com/content/f9c8bb52-dcac-11e5-8541-00fb33bdf038


Europe enters the age of disintegration
There will not necessarily be a formal break-up of the EU, but it will become less effective
Wolfgang Münchau


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FEBRUARY 28, 2016 by: Wolfgang Münchau
There is now a real possibility that the EU system for border and immigration controls will break down in about 10 days. On March 7, EU leaders will hold a summit in Brussels with Ahmet Davutoglu, the Turkish prime minister.


The idea is to persuade Ankara to do what Greece failed to do: protect the EU’s south-eastern border and halt the flow of immigrants. There is a lot of behind-the-scenes diplomacy going on between Germany and Turkey. The mood in Berlin, however, is not good.

The action taken by Austria, Hungary and other countries to protect their national borders has shut the western Balkan route along which migrants had made their way to Germany.


Refugees now find themselves trapped in Greece. Some may leave for Italy by boat. When those who survive the journey arrive there, I would expect Slovenia, Switzerland and France to close their borders. At that point, we should no longer assume that the European Council of heads of government is a functioning political body.

A refugee crisis that spins out of control could tilt the vote in the British referendum. There is no way the EU will be able to deal with two simultaneous shocks of such size. Coming at a time like this, Brexit has the potential to destroy the EU.

I do not expect such a doomsday scenario, but it is not implausible either. The EU is about to face one of the most difficult moments in its history. Member states have lost the will to find joint solutions for problems that they could solve at the level of the EU but not on their own. The EU’s population of more than 500m can easily absorb 1m refugees a year. No member state can do this alone, even Germany.

The tendency towards national solutions is particularly pronounced in central and eastern Europe. Austria convened a western Balkan conference last week in support of its policies to restrict the number of refugees. Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister, is holding a referendum to pre-empt a refugee quota-sharing agreement put forward by Brussels and Berlin. The Hungarians will surely support him.

Ms Merkel must take much of the blame. Her open-door policy was anti-European in that she unilaterally imposed it on her own country and on the rest of Europe. She consulted only Austrian chancellor Werner Faymann.


The EU is at risk of four fractures. I do not expect all of them to happen but I would be surprised if none did. The first is a north-south break-up over refugees. The so-called Schengen system of passport-free travel, in which 26 European countries take part, could be suspended indefinitely or become a miniature version comprising just Germany, France and the Benelux countries. Italy would not be part of it.

A second north-south faultline is the euro. Nothing has changed here. Echoes of the eurozone crisis linger on and the Greek position is as unsustainable today as it was last summer.

The third is an east-west divide. Will the open societies of western Europe want to be tied into an ever-closer union with the likes of Mr Orban or the other nationalists in central or eastern Europe?

Finally, there is Brexit. There is no way of knowing the outcome of the British referendum. The opinion polls are as useless as they were during last year’s general election.

More importantly, the debate has yet to start in earnest. Events will intrude; new facts or lies will emerge. A British vote to leave the EU may trigger referendums in Sweden or Denmark, adding further uncertainty.

A refugee crisis spinning out of control is ultimately more dangerous for the EU’s future than a fragmenting euro. What makes the refugee crisis politically more fraught is that this time France and Germany are at opposite ends of the argument.

In depth
UK’s EU referendum

News, comment and analysis on the referendum to decide whether Britain will leave the EU.
At the Munich Security Conference earlier this month, I was not surprised to hear Manuel Valls, French prime minister, reaffirming his opposition to additional refugee quotas, but I was surprised to hear him criticise Ms Merkel directly. It was not France that invited the refugees, he said.

The political impasse over migrants tells us that the EU’s open borders are inconsistent with national sovereignty over immigration. The member states will have to choose. They will choose sovereignty.

After nearly 60 years of European integration, we are entering the age of disintegration. It will not necessarily lead to a formal break-up of the EU — this is extremely unlikely — but it will make the EU less effective.

What is certain is that the refugee crisis adds a further layer of complexity to the British debate. It is not clear what kind of EU the British people are being asked to remain in, or to leave. Danger lies ahead.
 

taksinloong

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http://e.money.163.com/docs/4/2015102617/B6SCOCIU9001OCIV.html


欧洲难民危机或引发欧盟解体?
2015-10-26 17:15:00 来源: 东方财富网分享到:
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北京时间26日下午路透报道(记者 Paul Taylor)- 欧洲如何对待难民引发的分歧导致一些外交官对欧盟的未来提出了担忧。

欧盟正在团结和安全之间痛苦抉择,各国政府艰难应对来自叙利亚、阿富汗和非洲之角的难民,此事正在很多国家引发政治后果。

“之前不可想象的事情现在变成了可能的事情,那就是欧盟解体,”欧盟委员会协调欧盟移民危机行动的副总裁Frans Timmermans对智库欧洲之友(Friends of Europe)说道。

有经验的外交官们表示,欧盟政府间的不信任达到了令人警觉的程度。

德国总理默克尔敦促欧盟国家向难民开放大门和胸怀,但其他领导人认为最重要的事情是控制欧盟的外部边境,限制移民流入,将更多未被接受避难的人驱逐出境,以及向第三方国家支付金钱让他们将难民留在国内。

以匈牙利总理维克托·欧尔班为首的一些欧盟国家领导人指责默克尔加剧了移民流入;默克尔8月单方面决定接收叙利亚难民,而欧盟规定寻求避难的人必须在他们抵达的第一个欧洲国家提出申请。

德国官员们称,默克尔只是承认该规定给希腊和意大利带来了不现实的负担,且已失效,需要人道主义行动。

很多难民通过匈牙利前往德国,引发欧尔班关闭了匈牙利与塞尔维亚和克罗地亚的边境,其它不堪重负的国家也采取了以邻为壑的行动。

这导致上万人在巴尔干西部处在不人道的环境中,而冬天就要来了。

法国、奥地利、丹麦、瑞典和荷兰国内对极右翼党派的支持在上升;极右翼党派煽动人们对外来移民、伊斯兰教和恐怖主义的恐慌情绪。

中欧和东欧国家政府拒绝德国和布鲁塞尔提出的按配额接收难民的要求。右翼民主主义党派在波兰的支持率上升可能让情况更加严重。

默克尔在国内也面临自己所在的保守党内关闭德国边境和限制移民人数的更多压力。德国政府已经削减了避难申请者的福利,并在加速驱逐被拒绝避难的人。

难民危机还引发欧盟机构间的分歧,容克领导的欧盟委员会将危机视为融合难民的长期人道主义挑战。

而前波兰总理、欧盟理事会主席图斯克称,需要“抑制”或“控制”移民潮“威胁”,通过向土耳其支付金钱让叙利亚难民留在土耳其。

图斯克上周在马德里对中右翼领导人发表演讲时与提倡安全的人站在了同一个阵营里,罕见地抨击默克尔,称那些希望在欧洲边境被封锁之前在难民配额问题上达成一致的人是幼稚的。

“我们不能再允许团结和幼稚等同、开放和无助等同、自由和混乱等同,我所说的显然是边境的情况。”

“民众希望再次感觉到安全,因为只有那时他们才能够帮助需要帮助的人。”图斯克说道。

(责任编辑:DF134)
 

tanwahtiu

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Loyal
they need Chinese to help them glue together. Communal style of government works and Chinese are good at it.

Chinese are the best.
 

krafty

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Asset
i think i mention this before, it's a matter of time they go back to their good old days. some bro forummers say it's too complex but i think it's still possible.
 
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