Good news. Pap going to weaken SGD.

dancingshoes · Oct 13, 2015

hbk75 said:
sibor went up because sgd has weaken.

not really if you noticed, sgd was still very strong when sibor went up. it's only this and last month, it started to weaken.

http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/the-rise-fall-and-rise-again-of-sibor

"Growing strength in the US economy gives the Federal Reserve leeway to hike interest rates, which have been stuck at ultra-low record levels in a bid to spur growth.

The Sibor, in turn, is closely correlated to the US Fed funds rate, so any expectations of a hike there would move interest rates here higher."

hbk75 · Oct 13, 2015

dancingshoes said:
not really if you noticed, sgd was still very strong when sibor went up. it's only this and last month, it started to weaken.

http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/the-rise-fall-and-rise-again-of-sibor

"Growing strength in the US economy gives the Federal Reserve leeway to hike interest rates, which have been stuck at ultra-low record levels in a bid to spur growth.

The Sibor, in turn, is closely correlated to the US Fed funds rate, so any expectations of a hike there would move interest rates here higher."

i think the stopping of qe3 has got to do with the rise in sibor. cost of lending will increase. even fed is having zero % rates now. mortgage in usa are still running at 3-4%. fed funds rates for banks only. singapore uses fed fund rates to lend out to end customers.

frenchbriefs · Oct 13, 2015

Anyone know how to form a basket of currencies to hedge against sgd currency risk?

dancingshoes · Oct 13, 2015

u can trade the usd index, i hv not seen sgd index though.

frenchbriefs said:
Anyone know how to form a basket of currencies to hedge against sgd currency risk?

Cerebral · Oct 13, 2015

laksaboy said:
This is the truth about the situation. Read the entire article.

Have you woken up yet, Sinkies?

THE GREAT TOMATO BUBBLE
http://tomatobubble.com/id39.html

I'll quote a relevant excerpt to help the dullards who don't have the habit of reading.

I think i first read this in a book that was describing how the banks collapse in the last crisis. Can't remember the name of the book though

Cerebral · Oct 13, 2015

yahoo55 said:
GDP data can be manipulated aka "adjusted", the PAP govt have done it in the past to avoid technical recession, such as in 2012.

USD had risen to 1.43 early this month.

Hope the USD rise significantly on SGD by next year so that I can huat ah!

My money is on the Euros..... let's see....

eatshitndie · Oct 13, 2015

prc downturn weighs on sg.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-september-imports-plunge-sign-weakness-033811022.html

meanwhile, entire teams-are-sick board plus dozens of staff are in sf shopping and strategizing about sillycon valley's start-up super stories. but then again, they are always behind the curve. cum in when bubble is about to burst.....

http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterco...that-silicon-valleys-tech-bubble-is-bursting/

dancingshoes · Oct 14, 2015

MAS to slow appreciation of Singapore dollar

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/mas-to-slow-appreciation/2191376.html

gingerlyn · Oct 14, 2015

dancingshoes said:
MAS to slow appreciation of Singapore dollar

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/mas-to-slow-appreciation/2191376.html

that means MAS is going to raise interest rates slowly and hence currency is expected to strengthen slowly

hbk75 · Oct 14, 2015

gingerlyn said:
that means MAS is going to raise interest rates slowly and hence currency is expected to strengthen slowly

Mas dun care about Interest rates one.

dancingshoes · Oct 14, 2015

gingerlyn said:
that means MAS is going to raise interest rates slowly and hence currency is expected to strengthen slowly

hbk75 said:
Mas dun care about Interest rates one.

anyway, it's good news, we are so dependent on import, if sgd weaken, things will become more expensive. anyway, my take is that they are taking a wait and see attitude, if fed really raise rate which i doubt so, mas may be forced to raise rate too.

gingerlyn · Oct 14, 2015

CNY is expected to soften slowly and SGD is expected to strengthen slowly.
this is the good news for all the single men because more and more chinese chicken (export quality) will flood singapore geylang and night club scene.

hbk75 · Oct 14, 2015

dancingshoes said:
anyway, it's good news, we are so dependent on import, if sgd weaken, things will become more expensive. anyway, my take is that they are taking a wait and see attitude, if fed really raise rate which i doubt so, mas may be forced to raise rate too.

mas uses exchange rate policy and not interest rate.

http://www.mas.gov.sg/~/media/MAS/M...apores Exchange Ratebased Monetary Policy.pdf

Fourth, the choice of the exchange rate as the intermediate target of monetary policy
implies that MAS gives up control over domestic interest rates (and money supply). In the
context of free capital movements, interest rates in Singapore are largely determined by
foreign interest rates and investor expectations of the future movements in the Singapore
dollar.

dancingshoes · Oct 14, 2015

hbk75 said:
mas uses exchange rate policy and not interest rate.

http://www.mas.gov.sg/~/media/MAS/M...apores Exchange Ratebased Monetary Policy.pdf

Fourth, the choice of the exchange rate as the intermediate target of monetary policy
implies that MAS gives up control over domestic interest rates (and money supply). In the
context of free capital movements, interest rates in Singapore are largely determined by
foreign interest rates and investor expectations of the future movements in the Singapore
dollar.

thanks for the info, good bro.

hbk75 · Oct 14, 2015

dancingshoes said:
thanks for the info, good bro.

welcome bro. that is why pap created a mess in singapore.

when singapore economy was overheating 4-5 years ago. they followed USA zero % rates and blow up a big bubble now. zero rates should only be applicable to countries experiencing deflation like USA after 2008 subprime.

laksaboy · Oct 14, 2015

hbk75 said:
welcome bro. that is why pap created a mess in singapore.

when singapore economy was overheating 4-5 years ago. they followed USA zero % rates and blow up a big bubble now. zero rates should only be applicable to countries experiencing deflation like USA after 2008 subprime.

http://tomatobubble.com/id39.html

The "business cycle" is very simple. When the rate of growth in money supply (debt supply) exceeds the rate of growth in the general economy (GDP), the excess "money" has to go somewhere. It creates an illusion of prosperity. Artificial bubbles will form either in housing, stocks, currency, etc. Eventually the market always corrects for these phony excesses and the bubbles burst.

mojito · Oct 14, 2015

laksaboy said:
http://tomatobubble.com/id39.html

The "business cycle" is very simple. When the rate of growth in money supply (debt supply) exceeds the rate of growth in the general economy (GDP), the excess "money" has to go somewhere. It creates an illusion of prosperity. Artificial bubbles will form either in housing, stocks, currency, etc. Eventually the market always corrects for these phony excesses and the bubbles burst.

It is simply capital flight from a small economy linked to emerging market prosperity. No need for complicated theories.

hbk75 · Oct 14, 2015

laksaboy said:
http://tomatobubble.com/id39.html

The "business cycle" is very simple. When the rate of growth in money supply (debt supply) exceeds the rate of growth in the general economy (GDP), the excess "money" has to go somewhere. It creates an illusion of prosperity. Artificial bubbles will form either in housing, stocks, currency, etc. Eventually the market always corrects for these phony excesses and the bubbles burst.

when usa started money printing in 2008. china actually printed more. that is why you see so many rich china man buying properties in singapore. some even become developers. china gdp exceeded japan by alot after the subprime in usa. so their growth is induced by speculation and bubbles.

frenchbriefs · Oct 14, 2015

laksaboy said:
http://tomatobubble.com/id39.html

The "business cycle" is very simple. When the rate of growth in money supply (debt supply) exceeds the rate of growth in the general economy (GDP), the excess "money" has to go somewhere. It creates an illusion of prosperity. Artificial bubbles will form either in housing, stocks, currency, etc. Eventually the market always corrects for these phony excesses and the bubbles burst.

So wheres the bubble in right now?sg housing market?us stock market?china housing and stock market?when is the next 2008 crash coming?looks like it might be a good time to buy some gold and oil.

hbk75 · Oct 14, 2015

mojito said:
It is simply capital flight from a small economy linked to emerging market prosperity. No need for complicated theories.

emerging economies in asia = phillipines, malaysia, vietnam, Cambodia, indonesia, thailand etc. singapore can be so good recently as a financial center because we serves as a finance hub for these emerging economies.

Good news. Pap going to weaken SGD.

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