There are no middle ground voters. It is a fallacy. All local sinkies are either pro pappies or pro oppo parties. But, all foreign imported shitizens are certainly pro pappies and they were the voters who helped pappies to win.
Still the win is not astronomical. Only 70% of total percentage votes cast in pappies contested wards. If you removed those foreign imported shitizens' pro pappies vote by say 20%, pappies remain an unpopular party with local voters. A back backward of the 2011 percentage vote win. Main stream media and those pro pappies academics do not want to highlight this fact ... foreign imported shitizens helped pappies to win.
Love for LKY and celebration of SG50 are transient factors. In next GE, these factors will not be there and by that time, pappies will have to depend on these foreign shitizens' votes to stay in power unless it can carry out policy changes that please the locals to convert them from pro oppo parties to pro pappies.
In the next 4 years, if pappies continue as before to screw sinkies and adopt pro foreigners' policies, they may fare poorly in next GE.
Good Analysis Bigboss,
However, my predictions is that PAP will get 75% or more by GE2020... regardless...
Reason being that the floodgates are to the point of no return... FTs will still come in, no matter what... it's all in the name of GDP positive growth.
Whether you like it or not, becoming 6.9 Million people is going to be the country's modus operandi, because we have not enough opposition to stop this from happening.
With so many newly converted NEW CITIZENS indoctrinated to vote for PAP government, the electorate base is destined to be diluted... the older generations are dying... our babies born per year is at least 50% less than that of converted NEW CITIZENS annually...
With the simple mathematics described... you can see that the PAP vote of confidence will only rise up to 75% or beyond, not lesser...
And thus, I would think it's a good idea for the Opposition Parties to focus on the regions with the most TRUE BLUE SINGAPOREANS staying in, NOT THE RICHER AREAS (as the Rich is already supporting the incumbent), go for People Power! it's better to ENTER the Parliament first, rather than be greedy going for the premium GRC/SMC...
Politics is hard, start from humble beginnings, have a Beach Head Strategy first, then figure out how to entrench position, and gain influence... Then gain critical mass for the Manifestos to be realized... It's a long term war... Siege the Castle/Fort Strategy is the worst of them all... Why not go to places where you already have natural support...
