My Predictions

GoldenDragon said:

Hougang, Punggol East, Aljunied, East Coast, Fengshan, Potong Pasir - to the Opposition

MacPherson, Mountbatten, Sengkang West, Holland-BT, MP - very close fights, likely 47% and above

Bishan-TP, Moulmein-Kallang, Bishan-TP, Jurong, Nee Soon, Tg Pagar, Jalan Besar - decent showing, above 42%

All others- No comments

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My prediction:

The PAP will retain 60% overall national share, plus minus a couple of percenage points.

HG, Aljunied and PE will remain in WP's hands with roughly same margin as before. WP vote may decrease slightly.

The opposition will not win any further seats.

A lot of people have been placated by the piecemeal token measures taken by PAP to limit foreigners, stabilize home flat prices, as well as SG50/LKY propaganda effect and AHPETC saga. But this is counterbalanced by opposition (WP mainly) showing a good slate of candidates.

winning a SMC is insignificant... it wouldn't do much damage to the PAP
hope the oppo will succeed in EC, MP and BKH... results will be photo finish... possible recount ??

7 days more to go, the MIW are already on the defensive; they have nothing more to talk..

glockman said:

I really hope you are proven wrong. Ideally would like to see more go to the opposition. Just gaining East Coast, Fengshan and Potong Pasir is not enough. Holland-BT 42%-47% would be a bummer. Anyway, never say never and it's ain't over until the fat lady sings

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GoldenDragon said:

Prof GMS and team should be able to garner 30-35%. Won't lose deposit but result will be one that no one will shout about. Hope he goes into retirement after this GE.

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He'll run back to HK and kpkb !

GoldenDragon said:

Hougang, Punggol East, Aljunied, East Coast, Fengshan, Potong Pasir - to the Opposition

MacPherson, Mountbatten, Sengkang West, Holland-BT, MP - very close fights, likely 47% and above

Bishan-TP, Moulmein-Kallang, Bishan-TP, Jurong, Nee Soon, Tg Pagar, Jalan Besar - decent showing, above 42%

All others- No comments

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I predict:

1. Hougang, Punggol East, Aljunied, East Coast, Fengshan, Potong Pasir - to the Opposition

2. MP GRC, HBKT GRC, SengKang West SMC 50-50

3. Macpherson SMC, Mountbatten SMC, Jalan Besar GRC, Tanjong Pagar GRC - 48% to the Opposition.

So good chance PAP may lose 20 seats

WP is surging. Their brand equity has reach parity with the PAP. The vote swing towards them is likely to be between 8% to 10%.
With the exception of Macpherson SMC, there is a >50% chance they will win all other contests, giving WP 27 seats in Parliament.

The other parties have yet to catch fire. Their vote swing, if any, is likely to be between 3% to 5%.
With the exception of Potong Pasir, there is a > 50% chance the PAP will be able to retain the other seats.

Whether the PAP can retain their 2/3 majority will come down to Holland Bukit Timah. This GRC is led by an unpopular Minister who launched numerous attacks on WP via NEA. The SDP team there is led by CSJ and includes Paul Tambayn. This GRC is the best chance for SDP to make a breakthrough. Their numbers are just slightly below the 50% and they are close enough to convert this to a win.

enterprise2 said:

He'll run back to HK and kpkb !

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Maybe somewhere else coz HongKees also tak boleh tahan him.

aurvandil said:

WP is surging.

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Uber-style is it?

GoldenDragon said:

Ah John, not everyone is a fool. Some may vote PAP because of self-fear or because of weak opposition. But voters are more intelligent nowadays. How did WP succeed in Aljunied? Why did PE voters reject Dr Anal for an ordinary Ah Lian?

Agreed - more flats were built. Why? Because more opposition in Parliament. Why weren't they built earlier then? Failure to anticipate more applicants? MBT masturbating everyday in office? LTK is spot on when he listed out the drastic changes made after 2011. If S'pore is to progress, more opposition members must be in parliament - the credible ones of course.

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MBT is a useless fcuker.

But the fact remains that over 100,000 flats were built. Many SMEs and even FTs confirm that MOM has tightened the noose on foreign workers. The good old days of foreigners flooding Singapore like from 2005 to 2010 are over. Much fewer PRs are given out too. That means a huge bloc of people who voted for opposition are placated. These same bloc voted in protest for opposition. They may not really want to see PAP toppled.

I know some of u fcukers hate PAP to the core for various reasons and want them gone. But most sinkies are not like that. Most sinkies care only for themselves and their convenience. As long as they got jobs, got homes, reliable utilities, good schools, safe streets, stable society, they couldn't care less for issues like Operation Spectrum and Coldstore. Most sinkies don't give a shit about it. The only people who care are a handful of netizens. One detainee of the ISD, Teo Soh Lung, even contested in Yuhua, and got trounced convincingly by PAP candidate in GE2011.

Singapore is not a western country. Singapore is made up of selfish asiatics who care only about themselves. As long as PAP meet their basic needs, opposition got no chance to ever enter parliament. Not even God can help them.

aurvandil said:

WP is surging. Their brand equity has reach parity with the PAP. The vote swing towards them is likely to be between 8% to 10%.
With the exception of Macpherson SMC, there is a >50% chance they will win all other contests, giving WP 27 seats in Parliament.

The other parties have yet to catch fire. Their vote swing, if any, is likely to be between 3% to 5%.
With the exception of Potong Pasir, there is a > 50% chance the PAP will be able to retain the other seats.

Whether the PAP can retain their 2/3 majority will come down to Holland Bukit Timah. This GRC is led by an unpopular Minister who launched numerous attacks on WP via NEA. The SDP team there is led by CSJ and includes Paul Tambayn. This GRC is the best chance for SDP to make a breakthrough. Their numbers are just slightly below the 50% and they are close enough to convert this to a win.

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I hope you are right. My prediction is much more pessimistic than yours.

Singaporeans will follow the tried and true way of incremental changes. Besides fielding a good slate, WP has not really done much to convince voters to give them another GRC or two. They see that PAP has been making changes here and there. They will give the incumbent another chance to make further changes. If insufficient, there is always 2020.

My predictions.. PAP lose more than 50% majority of seats. And cannot form govt.

The national drift because of P65 demographic change is 3% to 5%. WP's rally numbers suggest that they will be able to convert an additional 3% to 5%. Recall that in the Punggol East BE, WP managed a 13% vote swing to win in a 4 corner fight. A predicted WP vote swing of 8% to 10% is therefore fairly conservative.

With the exception of strongholds like AMK, Pasir Ris-Punggol, this election will establish the credentials that WP can beat the PAP almost anywhere in Singapore.

GoldenDragon said:

Uber-style is it?

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aurvandil said:

With the exception of strongholds like AMK, Pasir Ris-Punggol, this election will establish the credentials that WP can beat the PAP almost anywhere in Singapore.

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Not so sure if these are strongholds. My assessment is that where PAP remains strong, it is almost always because we had no credible opposition to mount a meaningful challenge.

Let's say, the WP team for EC goes to PR or AMK. I am quite confident they will hit the 40-42% mark. Take Desmond to Hougang, an opposition stronghold and he won't go beyond 5%.

These are demographic strongholds created to protect the two PAP "immortals" who must survive at all cost. As long as the EBC reports to the PM, it is impossible to win there.

Uncle Goh did a similar thing when he was PM, drawing up the Marine Parade GRC boundaries to give the impression that he was hugely popular. His vote share went down so dramatically in GE 2011 because LHL redrew the boundaries. By taking out MacPherson and putting in Joo Chiat, LHL is ensuring that Uncle Goh will retire as he was supposed to.

Will be interesting to see if Uncle Goh unilaterally announces that he will be running for President in 2017.

GoldenDragon said:

Not so sure if these are strongholds. My assessment is that where PAP remains strong, it is almost always because we had no credible opposition to mount a meaningful challenge.

Let's say, the WP team for EC goes to PR or AMK. I am quite confident they will hit the 40-42% mark. Take Desmond to Hougang, an opposition stronghold and he won't go beyond 5%.

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OverTheCounter said:

I hope you are right. My prediction is much more pessimistic than yours.

Singaporeans will follow the tried and true way of incremental changes. Besides fielding a good slate, WP has not really done much to convince voters to give them another GRC or two. They see that PAP has been making changes here and there. They will give the incumbent another chance to make further changes. If insufficient, there is always 2020.

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Your predictions are really pessimistic to say the least. Yes, a credible opposition slate is important. It's undeniably a "pull factor". However, token appeasement by the pap (as you mentioned : making changes here and there) has been going on for the past few elections, yet their support has been chipping away. I believe most people started to realise the pap will never change after GE2011. They lost Aljunied, yet pressed on with importing more FTs, more unfavourable policies, still being arrogant and elitist, smiling hypocrites. These are the "push factors". GE2011 was their "another chance" to make further improvements.

My prediction.

Mb smc will be interesting to watch as Jeannette is gaining ground. PP SMC expecting very close fight as LC-CST combo vs Sito. Source indicates SPP is cautiously confident of winning back.

Elsewhere EC GRC, FS smc could possibly fall to WP. Mp GRC also near to 50-50 with that slight advantage to pap. Situation for SkW SMC also in precarious state.

As for AJ GRC and PE smc, expect WP to win with improve margin.

WP team in jb GRC and NS GRC are the darkhorse.

As for SDP don't expect any breakthrough. In fact it can be seen as a symbolic victory if any SDP team or candidate can surpass the 40% mark.

Expect NSP , PPP and RP to poll below national average.

aurvandil said:

WP is surging. Their brand equity has reach parity with the PAP. The vote swing towards them is likely to be between 8% to 10%.
With the exception of Macpherson SMC, there is a >50% chance they will win all other contests, giving WP 27 seats in Parliament.

The other parties have yet to catch fire. Their vote swing, if any, is likely to be between 3% to 5%.
With the exception of Potong Pasir, there is a > 50% chance the PAP will be able to retain the other seats.

Whether the PAP can retain their 2/3 majority will come down to Holland Bukit Timah. This GRC is led by an unpopular Minister who launched numerous attacks on WP via NEA. The SDP team there is led by CSJ and includes Paul Tambayn. This GRC is the best chance for SDP to make a breakthrough. Their numbers are just slightly below the 50% and they are close enough to convert this to a win.

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WP branding should be able to capture 1/3 of middle ground and this should at least guarantee them 40% of the votes. The other 10% shortfall will need consistent groundworks by using volunteers to do door to door knocking canvassing for votes. And this is what WP fell short last GE when most of their resources were channel toward winning AJ GRC. This deprived other teams the manpower they need to win votes.

This time round, WP seems focus on consolidating their resources rather than to go on an expansion by contesting in greater number of seats. I would reckon that every team will get sufficient manpower to move votes.

I expect SDP to achieve a breakthrough in Holland-Bukit Timah. I would like to warn that Zorro Lim has been working very quietly visiting condo to condo, pasting his face in lifts... under the guise of Medishield Plus Q&A. Please warn WP.

I dun question TS's predictions but I hope he is machiam like Pele predicting the World Cup

LordElrond said:

I expect SDP to achieve a breakthrough in Holland-Bukit Timah. I would like to warn that Zorro Lim has been working very quietly visiting condo to condo, pasting his face in lifts... under the guise of Medishield Plus Q&A. Please warn WP.

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Someone should tell Zorro Lim that it could be using himself as the face of medishield that causes his defeat. hahaha

Cufflinks said:

Someone should tell Zorro Lim that it could be using himself as the face of medishield that causes his defeat. hahaha

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To be honest, not true... be careful, don't underestimate opponent, this Chinese helicopter is cunning.