Elections Department to conduct sample counts on Polling Day

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/elections-department-to/2094216.html

not comfortable with this arrangment

lost the kick of gueesing who win who lost

Results of sample vote counts

Macpherson SMC

Bernard Chen (WP) : 53 votes
Tin PL (PAP) : 47 votes
Fake Oppo CCC : 0 votes


Bukit Batok SMC

SDP : 51
PAP : 49
Chow Ah Neh : 0

SINGAPORE: To prevent speculation and misinformation before election results are announced on Sep 11, the Elections Department (ELD) said it will be conducting sample counts after voting ends and releasing the results to the public.

This will be done at the start of the counting process at each of the 163 counting centres islandwide, once voting ends at 8pm.

A total of 100 ballot papers from each polling station will be randomly picked by a counting assistant in the presence of candidates and their counting agents. The votes will be added up, and weightage given, to account for the difference in the number of votes cast at each polling station.

The Assistant Returning Officer will then record the votes. The sample count for each constituency will be broadcast and published on the ELD website, while counting continues.

The sample count helps officials check against election results, the ELD said. The numbers are also said to be fairly indicative of the possible outcome for a constituency, although ELD has advised the public to wait for the announcement of the election results by the Returning Officer.

This will be the first time the sample count is released to the public. The process was carried out in previous elections, and was first made known to candidates and polling agents during the 2011 Presidential Elections.

- CNA/cy

Exit polls?

The sample count helps officials check against election results, the ELD said. The numbers are also said to be fairly indicative of the possible outcome for a constituency, although ELD has advised the public to wait for the announcement of the election results by the Returning Officer.

Is this one way of informing the counters "how" to count?

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Can anyone here explain why Singapore does not conduct/allow opinion polls or canvassing of voter intentions during the run-up to an election?

I would have thought Pollsters like Mori, Gallup, AC Nielsen, Harris etc would be only too happy to do sample polls before election day.
Even Mediacorp or SPH don't conduct voter intentions despite having a media bias towards the incumbent.
Is there a specific law against this?

I would be nice to have an alternative source of information other than the bookies.

THE_CHANSTER said:

Can anyone here explain why Singapore does not conduct/allow opinion polls or canvassing of voter intentions during the run-up to an election?

I would have thought Pollsters like Mori, Gallup, AC Nielsen, Harris etc would be only too happy to do sample polls before election day.
Even Mediacorp or SPH don't conduct voter intentions despite having a media bias towards the incumbent.
Is there a specific law against this?

I would be nice to have an alternative source of information other than the bookies.

Click to expand...

There are organizations and individuals who do such sampling. Just that the results are not made known to public. George Yeo had a friend who did such a sampling, and told George before the elections that he was going to lose. And the sampling results was quite close to the actual results. It's in George's book.

I hope unmarked vans with secret ballot boxes will not be activated in the event of an unfavorable exit poll result.

Then Georgie told Pinky and Pinky apologised like a Pussy. And the rest is History.

JohnTan said:

There are organizations and individuals who do such sampling. Just that the results are not made known to public. George Yeo had a friend who did such a sampling, and told George before the elections that he was going to lose. And the sampling results was quite close to the actual results. It's in George's book.

Click to expand...

If the exit poll indicated that the opposition candidate won narrowly, but the end result was the PAP won, there will be a huge outcry.

Similarly if the converse happens.

There will be a lot of accusation of "give false hope ..."

Laugh out loud.

I wonder if ELD will use this formula for estimation of the final result:

laksaboy said:

I hope unmarked vans with secret ballot boxes will not be activated in the event of an unfavorable exit poll result.

Click to expand...

Empty ballot boxes found, Elections Department lodges police report

http://www.straitstimes.com/singapo...und-elections-department-lodges-police-report

JohnTan said:

There are organizations and individuals who do such sampling. Just that the results are not made known to public. George Yeo had a friend who did such a sampling, and told George before the elections that he was going to lose. And the sampling results was quite close to the actual results. It's in George's book.

Click to expand...

This Organisation also predicted very confidently Opposition take
5 GRC draw, 6 GRC you WIN!

Place your Bet!!~

To Aurvandil:

Pls correct me if I'm wrong. A sample size of a mere 100 votes is really horribly insufficient to give anyone (ELD included) an indication of the likely range of results. The margin of error is simply too high.

For example, if WP polled 45% of the votes, based on a mere sample of 100, the 95% confidence interval for porportion would be 35% to 54%. How is that helpful to anyone? I don't see a sample of 100 can give anything meaningful.