[GE2015] why PAP will win big and win how big ?

brocoli said:

1) the anger is gone... just look at this subforum ... all quiet now... all the old guys I used to squabble with are gone... there is no anger .. so forget SG50 or LKY factor... fact is people are more happy

2) WP mess it up... I can do another long post... but I wont.. short and sweet, they squander all the goodwill they have gather since the historic win... Aljunied win was the highlight of the journey and I will remain it fondly and PE13 was like 2nd shot that the FL force you to empty ... but thats it ... no more ammo...

Sum it up...

PAP will gather 65-73 vote percentage...
WP has helped voters become more savvy but that has now backfired on them..

PAP will win all GRCs including Aljunied. at least 55%
East coast may actually get less votes for PAP, 53% to 58%
MP will drop as well but should retain 55% - 62%

SMC is where it get interesting...

Tin PL will get at top 3 Vote% for PAP... at least 70% maybe 79

FengShan will be in danger.. in fact it may fall..

PE is too hard to call... 50-50 at the moment... leaning toward LLL
Hougang vote will drop below 60% for WP i think

PP is another wild card but actually not... Sitoh will get 55% - 65%... 3CF will benefit Lina .. Sitoh votes will be eroded by TLS..

Tanjong Pagar is another wild card but CCS should win at least 60%

will update my forecast as thing progress...

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brocoli said:

Radin Mas SMC : PAP-73% , RP-15% , Independent-12% ( PAP wins )
Bukit Batok SMC : PAP-72.9% , SDP-26.9% , Independent-0.1% (PAP wins )
MacPherson SMC : PAP-71.3% , WP-25.6% , NSP-3.1% (PAP wins)
Ang Mo Kio GRC : PAP-75.4% , RP-25.6% (PAP wins)
Aljunied GRC : WP-45.9% , PAP-54.1% (PAP wins)
Sembawang GRC : PAP-74.4% , NSP-25.6% (PAP wins)
Bishan- Toa Payoh GRC : PAP-65.6% , SPP-34.4% (PAP wins)
Pasir Ris -Punggol GRC : PAP-70.4% , SDA-29.6% (PAP wins)
Hong Kah North SMC : PAP-65.3% , SPP-34.7% (PAP wins)
Bukit Panjang SMC : PAP-65.1% , SDP-34.9% (PAP wins)
Fengshan SMC : PAP-51.8% , WP-48.2% (PAP wins)
Hougang SMC : WP-62.4% , PAP-37.6% (WP wins)
Mountbatten SMC : PAP-58.4% , SPP-41.6% (PAP wins)
Pioneer SMC : PAP-68.6% , NSP-31.4% (PAP wins)
Potong Pasir SMC : PAP-55.1% , SPP-44.9% (PAP wins)
Punggol East SMC : WP-60.9% , PAP-39.1% (WP wins)
Sengkang West SMC : PAP-55.8% , WP-44.2% (PAP wins)
Yuhua SMC : PAP-71.9% , SDP-28.1% (PAP wins)
Jurong GRC : PAP-73.7% , SingFirst-26.3% (PAP wins)
Marine Parade GRC : PAP-54.2% , WP-45.8% (PAP wins)
Nee Soon GRC : PAP-65.3% , WP-34.7% (PAP wins)
Tampines GRC : PAP-74.4% , NSP-25.6% (PAP wins)
Tanjong Pagar GRC : PAP-65.2% , SingFirst-34.8% (PAP wins)
Chua Chu Kang GRC : PAP-71.8% , PPP-28.2% (PAP wins)
East Coast GRC : PAP-51.2% , WP-48.8% (PAP wins)
Holland-Bukit Timah GRC : PAP-58.7% , SDP-41.3% (PAP wins)
West Coast GRC : PAP-68.6% , RP-31.4% (PAP wins)
Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC : PAP-72.2% , SDP-27.8% (PAP wins)
Jalan Besar GRC : PAP-63.1% , WP-36.9% (PAP wins)

this is my biased opinion
PE and HG retained..
Aljunied lower votes than East Coast
East Coast and Fengshan too close to call but I believe PAP might just edge it.
HHH to surprise may even get higher votes than RP.. Shocked of the GE

IN general, NSP to be worst performing Opp with RP and SDA, SDP to Surprise on downside and SPP to emerge as 2nd best performing Opp

Cheo and the FT to lose deposit

PAP to get 71% of popular votes

Click to expand...

swissbank said:

Is time for you to take your meal.

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brocoli said:

Radin Mas SMC : PAP-73% , RP-15% , Independent-12% ( PAP wins )
Bukit Batok SMC : PAP-72.9% , SDP-26.9% , Independent-0.1% (PAP wins )
MacPherson SMC : PAP-71.3% , WP-25.6% , NSP-3.1% (PAP wins)
Ang Mo Kio GRC : PAP-75.4% , RP-25.6% (PAP wins)
Aljunied GRC : WP-45.9% , PAP-54.1% (PAP wins)
Sembawang GRC : PAP-74.4% , NSP-25.6% (PAP wins)
Bishan- Toa Payoh GRC : PAP-65.6% , SPP-34.4% (PAP wins)
Pasir Ris -Punggol GRC : PAP-70.4% , SDA-29.6% (PAP wins)
Hong Kah North SMC : PAP-65.3% , SPP-34.7% (PAP wins)
Bukit Panjang SMC : PAP-65.1% , SDP-34.9% (PAP wins)
Fengshan SMC : PAP-51.8% , WP-48.2% (PAP wins)
Hougang SMC : WP-62.4% , PAP-37.6% (WP wins)
Mountbatten SMC : PAP-58.4% , SPP-41.6% (PAP wins)
Pioneer SMC : PAP-68.6% , NSP-31.4% (PAP wins)
Potong Pasir SMC : PAP-55.1% , SPP-44.9% (PAP wins)
Punggol East SMC : WP-60.9% , PAP-39.1% (WP wins)
Sengkang West SMC : PAP-55.8% , WP-44.2% (PAP wins)
Yuhua SMC : PAP-71.9% , SDP-28.1% (PAP wins)
Jurong GRC : PAP-73.7% , SingFirst-26.3% (PAP wins)
Marine Parade GRC : PAP-54.2% , WP-45.8% (PAP wins)
Nee Soon GRC : PAP-65.3% , WP-34.7% (PAP wins)
Tampines GRC : PAP-74.4% , NSP-25.6% (PAP wins)
Tanjong Pagar GRC : PAP-65.2% , SingFirst-34.8% (PAP wins)
Chua Chu Kang GRC : PAP-71.8% , PPP-28.2% (PAP wins)
East Coast GRC : PAP-51.2% , WP-48.8% (PAP wins)
Holland-Bukit Timah GRC : PAP-58.7% , SDP-41.3% (PAP wins)
West Coast GRC : PAP-68.6% , RP-31.4% (PAP wins)
Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC : PAP-72.2% , SDP-27.8% (PAP wins)
Jalan Besar GRC : PAP-63.1% , WP-36.9% (PAP wins)

this is my biased opinion
PE and HG retained..
Aljunied lower votes than East Coast
East Coast and Fengshan too close to call but I believe PAP might just edge it.
HHH to surprise may even get higher votes than RP.. Shocked of the GE

IN general, NSP to be worst performing Opp with RP and SDA, SDP to Surprise on downside and SPP to emerge as 2nd best performing Opp

Cheo and the FT to lose deposit

PAP to get 71% of popular votes

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brocoli said:

I must admit , I am quite good even thought I never expect some of the big wins

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