Today letter: Property won't fall much because we will attract more immigrants!

http://www.todayonline.com/voices/steep-fall-private-home-prices-unlikely

From Wong Toon Tuan
.
Published: 4:02 AM, December 6, 2014

I refer to the report “Private home prices to fall 10 to 15%: OCBC” (Dec 5).

The analysts forecast that private residential property prices will dip 10 to 15 per cent over next year and 2016, citing the large oversupply of homes and the anticipated interest rate hike by the United States Federal Reserve.

A combined public and private supply of about 50,300 and 71,500 homes will be added to those that will be physically completed next year and in 2016, respectively.

But despite this and the home loan curbs, a steep price fall is unlikely because of an equally large backlog of demand for private and public housing, as well as the current low interest rates and unemployment.

Between 1995 and 2010, the resident population grew by 758,200, but the increase in completed private homes was 128,896. Assuming an average of 3.5 persons per household, 758,200 equates to 216,629 households and a housing deficit of 87,733 as of December 2010.

Between 2011 and this year, close to 20,000 new citizens were added annually to the population (offset by a dip of 13,000 permanent residents in total). During this period, up to 19,000 additional homes were needed for them.

Another category of potential buyers is newly-weds. Based on 25,000 marriages annually, roughly 100,000 units have been required in the same period. But the Housing and Development Board started to build 25,000 flats in 2011, followed by 27,000 in 2012.

Completion takes roughly three years, so these flats will be physically added to supply in 2014/5 and 2015/6. The figures do not show an oversupply for next year and 2016.

The other fear is interest rate hikes. But mortgage rates have to rise significantly to affect affordability. When interest rates rose to around 3.5 per cent in 2006 and 2007, housing demand and prices continued to increase.

I would not bet on a slowdown because of interest rates and oversupply.

Romagnum said:

http://www.todayonline.com/voices/steep-fall-private-home-prices-unlikely

From Wong Toon Tuan
.
Published: 4:02 AM, December 6, 2014

I refer to the report “Private home prices to fall 10 to 15%: OCBC” (Dec 5).

The analysts forecast that private residential property prices will dip 10 to 15 per cent over next year and 2016, citing the large oversupply of homes and the anticipated interest rate hike by the United States Federal Reserve.

A combined public and private supply of about 50,300 and 71,500 homes will be added to those that will be physically completed next year and in 2016, respectively.

But despite this and the home loan curbs, a steep price fall is unlikely because of an equally large backlog of demand for private and public housing, as well as the current low interest rates and unemployment.

Between 1995 and 2010, the resident population grew by 758,200, but the increase in completed private homes was 128,896. Assuming an average of 3.5 persons per household, 758,200 equates to 216,629 households and a housing deficit of 87,733 as of December 2010.

Between 2011 and this year, close to 20,000 new citizens were added annually to the population (offset by a dip of 13,000 permanent residents in total). During this period, up to 19,000 additional homes were needed for them.

Another category of potential buyers is newly-weds. Based on 25,000 marriages annually, roughly 100,000 units have been required in the same period. But the Housing and Development Board started to build 25,000 flats in 2011, followed by 27,000 in 2012.

Completion takes roughly three years, so these flats will be physically added to supply in 2014/5 and 2015/6. The figures do not show an oversupply for next year and 2016.

The other fear is interest rate hikes. But mortgage rates have to rise significantly to affect affordability. When interest rates rose to around 3.5 per cent in 2006 and 2007, housing demand and prices continued to increase.

I would not bet on a slowdown because of interest rates and oversupply.

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as usual some property agent in disguise trying to talk up the sick property market. so what you take in 1 million people or have 25,000 marriages? alot of these new citizens or PRs are your bread and butter filipinos and ah nehs with no money and probbaly but cheap flats or rent or stay 20-30 to a room. also factor latest figure form ROM in that 40% of all marriages end in divorce and couples have to sell the flat . also ageing population means a tidal wave of 1.5 million old, retirees reaching age of 65 in 2-3 years time wiith no savings and no employment and NO cpf!!! >>> so have to sell or downgrade or move in with children. this idiot obviously did not read papers last week 4 taht units sentosa cove were sold at mortgagee auction ie bank foreclosed at a massive 40% discount!!!!! shitty times used the term as mortgagee auction when it should be bank foreclosure due to owners unable to service loan. alot of units would foreclosed be on the auction block come 2015 when interest rates go up. in fact 12 shoe box unit were put up for auction as foreclosure by banks at an auction 2 weeks ago and NOT a single taker despite a 30% drop in price. in fact my banker friend said singapore is in a recession. just that shitty times and MAS fudge data so as not to look like it. even the casinos experience aa 30% drop in revenue overnight as high rollers have stop coming!!!! go ask those who work inside. they would tell you bad debts are sky high
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/28/uk-singapore-property-idUSKBN0GS2M120140828
http://www.straitstimes.com/news/op...k-running-out-singapores-two-casinos-20140924
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/04/10/uk-singapore-casinos-idUKBRE93900T20130410
http://sbr.com.sg/hotels-tourism/ne...-struggles-bad-debt-and-deteriorating-returns


and this talk C@ck b@stard is obviously a property agent or caught with mutiple mortgages shitting in his pants now. hahahha serves him right. cash is king nowadays. even ALL the sinkie banks are rasing interest rates for FD overnight.

looks like a carnage is on the cards....lets see whether the pap has the balls to roll out their 3rd casino plan before the elextions to save this fucking shithole.....

Wong Toon Tuan forgot to count existing flats that would be dispersed to the market.

There will be 10 MIL people in the city!

pinkieslut said:

there will be 10 mil people in the city!

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huat ah !!

This has been the SOP, nothing new to report. How you think your property prices has been up and up all these years? You smart would have bought a few lots before.

numero uno said:

.... alot of these new citizens or PRs are your bread and butter filipinos and ah nehs with no money and probbaly but cheap flats....

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Now that you raised this observation, it is interesting. I recollect the rental history of a landed property that I know well. The tenants were all PRs. The first is Portuguese family, followed by New Zealander,... and the latest are Ah nehs (doctor). A point to note, non of them became citizen. All terminated their tenancy because they went back to their countries.

If this isolated case is any representation of the overall trend, then the well to do professionals are not settling down here, the most prominent being George soros. Are those foreigners who are buying high end condo purely for investment and speculation but not for staying?

Hah, I don't think its just Singapore, I think China, Australia going to have the same downturn comes 2016.

Ash007 said:

Hah, I don't think its just Singapore, I think China, Australia going to have the same downturn comes 2016.

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Its just who is going to get it worse and/or longer and also the ability to weather the storm.

Knn, only 10% drop talk as though the world is coming to an end.


Fire sale alert: Home prices to plunge 10% as developers struggle to clear over 12k units in 2015

Prices will reach levels last seen in 2009.

Developers will be the first to blink in the battle for lower residential property prices. According to Macquarie Research, private home prices will plunge by as much as 10% next year as developers struggle to clear and increasing number of unsold inventory.

Macquarie estimates that developers will have to clear around 12,000 units next year, causing prices to sink to levels last seen in 2009.

“Developers typically hold a certain level of inventory and tolerate a certain amount of unsold units, giving them the opportunity to capture the property up-cycle. However, current “inventory”, measured by the ratio of the total number of unsold and unlaunched units with sales licences as a % of near term supply (total unsold and unlaunched units) is too high,” noted Macquarie.

Macquarie further estimates that prices may inch up by 1% in 2016, which should alleviate margin pressure. Some cooling measures may also be relaxed especially if the government calls for an early election in 2015.
*

- See more at: http://sbr.com.sg/residential-prope...rs-struggle-clear-over-1#sthash.pZjt6jbz.dpuf

His calculation is wrong. Under URA guidelines, each private housing unit can accomodate max of 8 persons and each HDB max of 9 persons. 130k new homes can accomodate easily 1 million new trash. So there is a definite over supply.

Romagnum said:

http://www.todayonline.com/voices/steep-fall-private-home-prices-unlikely

From Wong Toon Tuan
.
Published: 4:02 AM, December 6, 2014

I refer to the report “Private home prices to fall 10 to 15%: OCBC” (Dec 5).

The analysts forecast that private residential property prices will dip 10 to 15 per cent over next year and 2016, citing the large oversupply of homes and the anticipated interest rate hike by the United States Federal Reserve.

A combined public and private supply of about 50,300 and 71,500 homes will be added to those that will be physically completed next year and in 2016, respectively.

But despite this and the home loan curbs, a steep price fall is unlikely because of an equally large backlog of demand for private and public housing, as well as the current low interest rates and unemployment.

Between 1995 and 2010, the resident population grew by 758,200, but the increase in completed private homes was 128,896. Assuming an average of 3.5 persons per household, 758,200 equates to 216,629 households and a housing deficit of 87,733 as of December 2010.

Between 2011 and this year, close to 20,000 new citizens were added annually to the population (offset by a dip of 13,000 permanent residents in total). During this period, up to 19,000 additional homes were needed for them.

Another category of potential buyers is newly-weds. Based on 25,000 marriages annually, roughly 100,000 units have been required in the same period. But the Housing and Development Board started to build 25,000 flats in 2011, followed by 27,000 in 2012.

Completion takes roughly three years, so these flats will be physically added to supply in 2014/5 and 2015/6. The figures do not show an oversupply for next year and 2016.

The other fear is interest rate hikes. But mortgage rates have to rise significantly to affect affordability. When interest rates rose to around 3.5 per cent in 2006 and 2007, housing demand and prices continued to increase.

I would not bet on a slowdown because of interest rates and oversupply.

Click to expand...

iluvgst said:

His calculation is wrong. Under URA guidelines, each private housing unit can accomodate max of 8 persons and each HDB max of 9 persons. 130k new homes can accomodate easily 1 million new trash. So there is a definite over supply.

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Who said max 9? Read below.



SINGAPORE - Four Malaysians working here were killed in an early morning fire at a cramped hostel in the famous Geylang "red light district".

Three of them were found in one of the units of the three-storey shophouse which had been converted into a workers' hostel with numerous partitions.

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The incident occurred at about 1.40am yesterday.

They were pronounced dead by paramedics at the scene possibly due to suffocation while the fourth Malaysian died on arrival at the hospital.

The dead - all working as cleaners - were identified as Sabahans Jubitol Rumanjing, 37, Maslan Musundo, 43, and Yusoff Masrong, 49, and Ramu Kotiah, 50, from Perak.

A Malaysian High Commission official here said the next of kin of two of the four victims had been told of their deaths.

"We are working with the Malaysian police and Immigration as well as the National Registration Department to trace the other two victims' next of kin," she told The Star when contacted last night.

It was learnt that at press time, the bodies were still at the Singapore General Hospital mortuary.

Five other Malaysian workers and two firefighters were injured and sent to Tan Tock Seng Hospital and Singapore

During the incident, thick black smoke was said to have come out of the ground floor at No. 35, Lorong 4,

Neighbours said the shoplot was used as a hostel for workers from different countries including Chi**na, India and Bangladesh, and might have housed about 100 people.

The Singapore Civil Defence Force officer was quoted by Channel NewsAsia as saying that the fire broke out in the centre of the unit, and was extinguished within 30 minutes.

The shoplot is believed to have been partitioned into 11 rooms each occupied by about 10 people.

The television station reported neighbours as saying that they thought a fight had broken out at the hostel but as the noise got more intense, they discovered that it was a fire.

A resident, who lives on the se*cond storey of the unit, said she and her family woke up to find the place blanketed by thick smoke and smelling of burnt plastic.

Other neighbours said they escaped by sliding down a lamp post.

Police had ordered the occupants of the affected units to vacate their premises pending investigations.

Ramu's nephew, Jaya, was quoted by the local Shin Min Daily News as saying that he was in a taxi with his uncle earlier.

"The taxi dropped him off and I did not expect that to be the last time I would ever see him," said Jaya, adding that he had spoken to his uncle on the phone hours before the tragedy.

Jaya said Ramu began working in Singapore 10 years ago.

"My uncle's family is in Ipoh, so I will help send his body back to his hometown for the funeral," he added.

Always 5 or 6 people max. If caught then different story lah. Sometimes temporary arrangements mah!

This fuckin Toon deserves the Escher treatment for the shit he spouts.

The scary part is they already lelong this fucking country for so long, that lelong for awhile more also no difference.

It's like telling a prostitute who quit her job, since you open your legs so long le, why don't you continue opening it...

Agents are usually quite stupid.

They keep talking the market up because they need occupiers as well as investment buyers.

If price is high and no buyers are interested, they don't get any commission.

If price is low and they do a sale, at least they get a commission.

The top agent in HSR and the former Remax champion both slow talk their sellers to achieve reasonable price and sale.

Most of their colleagues are eating grass, quite a few have gone to driving taxis for some stability.

Otherwise, three months without a deal is damn siong

Good….they are the scum of the earth.

if the property is freehold, stand-alone, with a lot size of 6000-7000 sq. ft., in a choice location, convenient, reasonably quiet, yet near an mrt station, the demand is there, and prices are not coming down. and not surprisingly, the demand is from the local rich. sinkies are rich, thanks to the pap.

eatshitndie said:

if the property is freehold, stand-alone, with a lot size of 6000-7000 sq. ft., in a choice location, convenient, reasonably quiet, yet near an mrt station, the demand is there, and prices are not coming down. and not surprisingly, the demand is from the local rich. sinkies are rich, thanks to the pap.

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They can't be rich if they need the train to get around. Any landed property that cannot fit 2 cars are for nouveau riche pretenders.