• IP addresses are NOT logged in this forum so there's no point asking. Please note that this forum is full of homophobes, racists, lunatics, schizophrenics & absolute nut jobs with a smattering of geniuses, Chinese chauvinists, Moderate Muslims and last but not least a couple of "know-it-alls" constantly sprouting their dubious wisdom. If you believe that content generated by unsavory characters might cause you offense PLEASE LEAVE NOW! Sammyboy Admin and Staff are not responsible for your hurt feelings should you choose to read any of the content here.

    The OTHER forum is HERE so please stop asking.

GMS: My whack WP fever is back!

GoMadSeng

Alfrescian
Loyal
One of the important lesson from GE 2011 which has been overlooked by most people is that opposition party CAN LOSE their seat EVEN when there is a high VOTE SWING AGAINST PAP of over 10%!
SPP lost Potong Pasir even though there was a Popular vote swing against PAP of over 10% in GE2011. So we should not be overly complacent about the situation in opposition wards.

...............

My reply to some people who have doubts over the "WP Danger Zones" view:
WP won Aljunied with 54% by having 1 MP plus 1 NCMP and a Supers Star. 54% is by the way, within statistical standard errors. It means that it is within swinging zone. It means Aljunied GRC has been WP Danger Zone right from the start. It also applies to Punggol East.
This is a realistic view which is not blinded by the cheers and singing from the ground you see. And these results were achieved with some high expectation from voters on WP.
If WP has been performing extremely well on both National and domestic fronts, has shown good performance in parliament as well as managing their estates well, they might have strengthen their grip on Aljunied and Punggol East. However, the reverse is true.
Dont be blinded by what you see from die hard opposition or WP supporters but rather, look carefully at the frowns of those silent middle ground. They will be ultimately the king makers.

.................


Yes, I am rather pessimistic about opposition parties' prospect for the next GE if it just happens within two months from now. We may end up with opposition winning only 1 SMC if we are not careful about it.
There are a few reasons:
1) There will definitely be MORE 3 or multi-corner fights which will apparently benefits PAP. This is partly due to WP publicly declaring it will "walk its own path" and also due to "overcrowding" with more new participants in the opposition camp.
2) The aggressive introduction of numerous New Citizens may help PAP tip the balance totally in their favour. This can be seen in the active recruitment of New Citizens and even PRs in PAP's grassroot machinery, including PA's RCs and CCCs. They form a powerful network among the NEW VOTERS.
3) After the painful loss of Aljunied GRC and Punggol SMC, PAP has started to fortify their "DANGER ZONES" like Tampines, East Coast, Marine Parade etc.
4) Unfortunately, Aljunied GRC and Punggol East have become WP's "Danger Zones" with numerous complains from the residents on municipal issues. Unlike Hougang in the past, WP didn't manage to fortify its win in these new trophy wards but instead, have antagonized part of the middle ground voters with the estate management issues.
5) The "Danger" in these wards is further enhanced with erosion of confidence in WP and opposition as a whole, when most people feel that WP has over-promised of "First World Parliament" but ended up with under-performance in its parliamentary debates.
6) The Pioneer Package's effect cannot be underestimated. I believe this is planned to coincide with the strategy to sway the votes of the elderly who may be influenced by the inevitable passing of LKY. Singapore is an aging population and the votes of the pioneer generation will be critical for PAP.
7) PAP knows it may not turn the tide of the young voters' awakening. Thus it has re-calibrated its strategy to woo the NEW Citizens' votes as well as the Pioneer generation. In Singapore's First Past the Posts system, even if PAP's popular votes drop, as long as it could manage just 51% in almost all wards, it will still win most of the seats.
8) Thus, while we may feel that more people are more vocal, demanding, hating or even aggressive in their daily blasting of PAP, all these may translate into lower popular votes for PAP but not necessary translate into more seats for opposition.
9) Singaporeans are well known for their Pendulum Swing in their voting pattern. It is hard to win their confidence politically, even more so to convince them to continue to have confidence in opposition with current performance of opposition overall. Once you lose their confidence, it will take decade to win them back.
All in all, it would be lucky for us if we could keep status quo for opposition with WP winning back what it is holding now. I really hope WP could hold their position as such, even if it wins by a lower margin, it is still a win.
The worst case scenario is that we will be hammered back to the position of 2006 where we are left with only 1 seat in Hougang.
 

Reddog

Alfrescian
Loyal
You are suffering from an acute relapse of your "sour grape" illness. Why don't you beg some political party to accept you ? Then you will feel elevated... fulfilled ?
 

tanwahp

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
WP won Aljunied with 54% by having 1 MP plus 1 NCMP and a Supers Star. 54% is by the way, within statistical standard errors. It means that it is within swinging zone. It means Aljunied GRC has been WP Danger Zone right from the start. It also applies to Punggol East.
This is a realistic view which is not blinded by the cheers and singing from the ground you see. And these results were achieved with some high expectation from voters on WP.

The opposition has always mostly scored 50 plus percent. Some PAP MPs even score that. That doesn't mean they will lose (eg Chiam and Low). But he's right that that also doesn't mean they will win (Ling and Cheo). So there is nothing special about this motherhood "revelation". You can lose even if you scored 80% in the last election.

Yes, I am rather pessimistic about opposition parties' prospect for the next GE if it just happens within two months from now. We may end up with opposition winning only 1 SMC if we are not careful about it.
There are a few reasons:
1) There will definitely be MORE 3 or multi-corner fights which will apparently benefits PAP. This is partly due to WP publicly declaring it will "walk its own path" and also due to "overcrowding" with more new participants in the opposition camp.

I thought GMS once said the non-WP parties were doing well forging unity and will unite without WP.

4) Unfortunately, Aljunied GRC and Punggol East have become WP's "Danger Zones" with numerous complains from the residents on municipal issues. Unlike Hougang in the past, WP didn't manage to fortify its win in these new trophy wards but instead, have antagonized part of the middle ground voters with the estate management issues.

Multiplying your gains at such a big scale was expected to be difficult. No one expected 1 seat to 7 seats was easy. That's one purpose of the GRC. The old SDP floundered by just going from 1 to 3. All I can say is that any opposition party will fail if even the experienced WP can fail. That doesn't mean we hope for the worst.

5) The "Danger" in these wards is further enhanced with erosion of confidence in WP and opposition as a whole, when most people feel that WP has over-promised of "First World Parliament" but ended up with under-performance in its parliamentary debates.

It depends on how you define a first world parliament and if people wanted to twist the meaning they can do it for any slogan. Remember how the New Lap, Staying Together Moving Ahead, Dare to Change and You Have a Choice were all twisted by political opponents to mean something else. Not an indicator of sentiments.

9) Singaporeans are well known for their Pendulum Swing in their voting pattern. It is hard to win their confidence politically, even more so to convince them to continue to have confidence in opposition with current performance of opposition overall. Once you lose their confidence, it will take decade to win them back.

The same applies in PAP's case. It took rather long to win back PP and Hougang (which hasn't been won back). The trick is to win more before losing some.

All in all, it would be lucky for us if we could keep status quo for opposition with WP winning back what it is holding now. I really hope WP could hold their position as such, even if it wins by a lower margin, it is still a win.
The worst case scenario is that we will be hammered back to the position of 2006 where we are left with only 1 seat in Hougang.

The PAP is more optimistic for the opposition than GMS. Retaining the 7 seats is a bonus and PAP is working hard not to lose more than one GRC. PAP knows the problems it starts to solve will only bear fruit in 2021 and not 2016. I am more aligned to Ho Kwon Ping's view that the PAP may lose its majority in 3 elections.
 

halsey02

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
You are suffering from an acute relapse of your "sour grape" illness. Why don't you beg some political party to accept you ? Then you will feel elevated... fulfilled ?

He cannot go & eat at the Hylam Kari png stall in Hougang or the CROWS there will shit on him....:rolleyes: f$#%^^$^g SOUR GRAPES....LKT was stupid to have accepted him...must be a grave oversight!
 

bigboss

Alfrescian
Loyal
You are suffering from an acute relapse of your "sour grape" illness. Why don't you beg some political party to accept you ? Then you will feel elevated... fulfilled ?

He is like Robinson Crusoe stuck on a lonely island, talking to himself, not wanted by the papees, not welcomed by the oppo parties. Eventually, insanity will consume him.
 

sochi2014

Alfrescian
Loyal
It is God's will Aljunied falls to WP! I was there to oversee it happens!!

Beri shiok I would say, even though I was really dead tired at the end of the day.

Some chow Pinoys laughed at me in the MRT when I slept on the train.
 

OverTheCounter

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
If WP fails to win BOTH Aljunied and East Coast in 2016, I will personally treat his whole family to AH YAT steamboat. The wager is on and I am THAT confident.
 

3_M

Alfrescian
Loyal
1) There will definitely be MORE 3 or multi-corner fights which will apparently benefits PAP. This is partly due to WP publicly declaring it will "walk its own path" and also due to "overcrowding" with more new participants in the opposition camp.

Likely area of 3CF could be in TP GRC (SFP, SDP), HBT GRC (SFP, SDP), Marine Parade GRC (WP, NSP) TMP GRC (WP, NSP), PR-P GRC (WP, NSP). Another possible scenario could see Western zone becoming more congested if WP manages to squeeze other oppositions from the east leaving the eastern zone mainly a fight between PAP and WP.

Any 3 CF involving WP, it rather clear cut who will stand a higher chance as such opposition voters knows who they should vote. However it going to be a problem if the contest is between SDP and SFD as we don't really know who stand a better chance and would unlikely be able to exercise accurate judgement when comes to tactical voting.

2) The aggressive introduction of numerous New Citizens may help PAP tip the balance totally in their favour. This can be seen in the active recruitment of New Citizens and even PRs in PAP's grassroot machinery, including PA's RCs and CCCs. They form a powerful network among the NEW VOTERS.

Quite true. Many PRC have join RC and everyone is joining with an agenda in mind like getting priority in Pri sch registration etc. Would that piss off local grassroots leaders? We cannot discount the possibility of grassroots revolt and it does happen in the past.

6) The Pioneer Package's effect cannot be underestimated. I believe this is planned to coincide with the strategy to sway the votes of the elderly who may be influenced by the inevitable passing of LKY. Singapore is an aging population and the votes of the pioneer generation will be critical for PAP.

Heard there is a feel good factor amongst the elderly but this group of voters will vote PAP regardless if there is any goodies or not.
 
Top