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Sinkie property price to collapse on peak supply, rising mortgage rates: Braclays

Romagnum

Alfrescian
Loyal
http://www.msn.com/en-sg/money/othe...prices-to-plunge-20percent-by-2015/ar-BB9dHlh

Private residential property prices to plunge 20% by 2015

Singapore Business Review

Staff Reporter

2 hrs ago

© Provided by Singapore Business Review

Vacancy rates will hit a record-high 10%.

Singapore's private residential property prices reported steady declines in September, but prices are expected to plunge by 20% in 2015, with vacancy rates expected to hit a record-high 10% in 2016.

According to Barclay's, the drop is in view of market expectations of rising interest rates, and will coincide with peak supply as unsold inventory rises across both high and low-end segments.

"We expect both volumes and prices to slide given: 1) the ongoing government curbs, 2) looming oversupply, and 3) rising interest/mortgage rates in 2H15E. We maintain our negative stance on the Singapore residential sector. We see an oversupply of private housing properties and we expect prices to fall 20% by 2015, in view of market expectations for interest rates to rise, coinciding with peak supply and our assumption that the vacancy rate could reach a record 10% by 2016," noted the report.

Here's more from Barclay's:

The Urban Redevelopment Authority's flash data for 3Q14 indicates that both private and public home prices continued to slip in 3Q14 for the fourth and fifth consecutive quarters respectively.

Private home prices fell 0.6% q/q and -3.8% y/y. This is the fourth straight decline, albeit a slight deceleration, after -1.0% q/q in 2Q14, -1.3% q/q in 1Q14 and -0.9% q/q in 4Q13, bringing the cumulative decline to 3.8% since the peak in 3Q13. Private home prices are still 56% above the last trough in 2009.

Public housing continued to fall for the fifth straight quarter by 1.6% q/q, vs -1.4% in 2Q14, for a cumulative slide of 6.8% from the peak.

August sales fell 15% m/m and 43%y/y to 432 units, the lowest monthly figure since December 2013, bringing year-to-August sales to 5,350 units, down 52% y/y from 11,188 units in 8M13.

We believe the government will only start unwinding measures when prices fall a cumulative steeper 10-15%, perhaps in mid-2015.
 

numero uno

Alfrescian
Loyal
http://www.msn.com/en-sg/money/othe...prices-to-plunge-20percent-by-2015/ar-BB9dHlh

Private residential property prices to plunge 20% by 2015

Singapore Business Review

Staff Reporter

2 hrs ago

© Provided by Singapore Business Review

Vacancy rates will hit a record-high 10%.

Singapore's private residential property prices reported steady declines in September, but prices are expected to plunge by 20% in 2015, with vacancy rates expected to hit a record-high 10% in 2016.

According to Barclay's, the drop is in view of market expectations of rising interest rates, and will coincide with peak supply as unsold inventory rises across both high and low-end segments.

"We expect both volumes and prices to slide given: 1) the ongoing government curbs, 2) looming oversupply, and 3) rising interest/mortgage rates in 2H15E. We maintain our negative stance on the Singapore residential sector. We see an oversupply of private housing properties and we expect prices to fall 20% by 2015, in view of market expectations for interest rates to rise, coinciding with peak supply and our assumption that the vacancy rate could reach a record 10% by 2016," noted the report.

Here's more from Barclay's:

The Urban Redevelopment Authority's flash data for 3Q14 indicates that both private and public home prices continued to slip in 3Q14 for the fourth and fifth consecutive quarters respectively.

Private home prices fell 0.6% q/q and -3.8% y/y. This is the fourth straight decline, albeit a slight deceleration, after -1.0% q/q in 2Q14, -1.3% q/q in 1Q14 and -0.9% q/q in 4Q13, bringing the cumulative decline to 3.8% since the peak in 3Q13. Private home prices are still 56% above the last trough in 2009.

Public housing continued to fall for the fifth straight quarter by 1.6% q/q, vs -1.4% in 2Q14, for a cumulative slide of 6.8% from the peak.

August sales fell 15% m/m and 43%y/y to 432 units, the lowest monthly figure since December 2013, bringing year-to-August sales to 5,350 units, down 52% y/y from 11,188 units in 8M13.

We believe the government will only start unwinding measures when prices fall a cumulative steeper 10-15%, perhaps in mid-2015.

Of course the prefect storm coming. Just like 2003, Ebola virus, interests rates hike very soon, poor economy in USA, China and europe and japan, and ISIS trouble in middle east>>>>>Haha 20% drop is an underestimateion. more like 40-50%.
 

Narong Wongwan

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
All the naysayers damn funny la.
Short of a world war dun expect sg property prices to clash or even fall significantly.
Vile pappies are in control of everything here....they can easily manipulate wherever they like.
Its in their interests and politically survival to prop up property prices.
 

SgGoneWrong

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
All the naysayers damn funny la.
Short of a world war dun expect sg property prices to clash or even fall significantly.
Vile pappies are in control of everything here....they can easily manipulate wherever they like.
Its in their interests and politically survival to prop up property prices.

I agree.
US also said recently they are not going to increase rates in the foreseeable future.
They always said will collapse are the bitter ones dreaming away.
 

Asterix

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset

Profit of $170,000 on a seventeen year investment
Is not a good rate of return miserable to put it mildly
On the positive side Doris' biceps are as big as mine :biggrin:


[video=youtube;eF-YUoZ0tuE]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eF-YUoZ0tuE[/video]
 

numero uno

Alfrescian
Loyal
I agree.
US also said recently they are not going to increase rates in the foreseeable future.
They always said will collapse are the bitter ones dreaming away.

yeah sure talk cock. talk is cheap. so why don't all these feel good speculators who are always trying to talk up the market put their money where their mouth is. Go ahead and put a down payment on properties if you think it would not crash.
talk is cheap as they said. alot of these speculators are just hot air and sitting on a time bomb esp those who bought in the last few years. sell now and suffer a loss and they just suck their thumb and post idiotic posts trying to talk up the market like that hong leng ceo. sell later and they would still suffer a bigger loss. main problem is that there are no buyers now. even the tharman guy in yesterday newspaper said interest rates would go up in 2015 soon together with the Feds chief Yellen who actually said days of low interest are over!!!!! and he is on the board of world bank as adviser!!!!!....LMFAO obviously never read newspapers
In sentosa alot of units are now selling at a 20% discount and still no takers. just like I predict last year when alot of such bullshiiters were posting similar commets that market would only go up. posts by your usual property agents and peoepl who bought into 3 or 4 units and now sweating as rents are nose diving and interest are climbing steadily. enjoy the show.
all these crap people are still dreaming like those in 2002 and 1997 and 2005 before reality hits them. soon alot of jumpers with nightmares. as for me I am laughing at all these idiotic posts . what so bitter about sitting on apile of cash. money is king these days.
My banker just told me the housing loan market have dropped 99%!!! and they are going to foreclosed alot of properties come 2015. FYI he is my own blood relative. says so much for all the crap hype in the shitty times
 
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