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US predicts Ebola could infect 1.4 mn by end of January
Published time: September 23, 2014 16:52 Get short URL
Reuters/2Tango
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Ebola outbreak
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Africa, Health, Medicine, Science, USA
Ebola infections in West Africa could hit 1.4 million by the end of January if current trends continue and no immediate, large-scale increase in response measures is taken, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a new estimate.
“Extrapolating trends to January 20, 2015, without additional interventions or changes in community behavior,” such as safety improvements for burial practices, CDC researchers said the number of Ebola cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone could be anywhere from 550,000 to 1.4 million.
“The findings in this report underscore the substantial public health challenges posed by the predicted number of future Ebola cases,” the CDC wrote. “If conditions continue without scale-up of interventions, cases will continue to double approximately every 20 days, and the number of cases in West Africa will rapidly reach extraordinary levels.”
The estimate report released Tuesday is said to be the agency's tool that aims to help with efforts to slow the spread of the deadly epidemic while planning ahead for future scenarios, according to The Washington Post. The number of Ebola cases in West Africa is being severely underreported, researchers say, by a factor of 2.5 in Sierra Leone and Liberia. Using the new estimate measures, researchers predict that around 21,000 total Ebola cases will have occurred in those two nations by Sept. 30.
Meanwhile, reported cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone are doubling every 20 days or so, according to researchers.
CDC Director
US predicts Ebola could infect 1.4 mn by end of January
Published time: September 23, 2014 16:52 Get short URL
Reuters/2Tango
Trends
Ebola outbreak
Tags
Africa, Health, Medicine, Science, USA
Ebola infections in West Africa could hit 1.4 million by the end of January if current trends continue and no immediate, large-scale increase in response measures is taken, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a new estimate.
“Extrapolating trends to January 20, 2015, without additional interventions or changes in community behavior,” such as safety improvements for burial practices, CDC researchers said the number of Ebola cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone could be anywhere from 550,000 to 1.4 million.
“The findings in this report underscore the substantial public health challenges posed by the predicted number of future Ebola cases,” the CDC wrote. “If conditions continue without scale-up of interventions, cases will continue to double approximately every 20 days, and the number of cases in West Africa will rapidly reach extraordinary levels.”
The estimate report released Tuesday is said to be the agency's tool that aims to help with efforts to slow the spread of the deadly epidemic while planning ahead for future scenarios, according to The Washington Post. The number of Ebola cases in West Africa is being severely underreported, researchers say, by a factor of 2.5 in Sierra Leone and Liberia. Using the new estimate measures, researchers predict that around 21,000 total Ebola cases will have occurred in those two nations by Sept. 30.
Meanwhile, reported cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone are doubling every 20 days or so, according to researchers.
CDC Director
