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Why PAP will continue to rule until 2030

kingrant

Alfrescian
Loyal
I expect that the PAP will continue to rule for a long time, and each year, with new immigrants becoming citizens, they will regain their power base. Even if they drop in popular votes to 51%, the seats in the house will not lose 2/3. So they will continue to govern, one step at a time, as they grope haltingly forward, and then becoming brazen as they go. These buggers are stubborn and will not give in to the popular vote easily. They will do some trading off, pork barrel politicking, but at the end of the day, they will run over us. They will exploit the Sinkies' fear of uncertainty, and Sinkies' preference for the known.

However, if we campaign for Constitutional change to proportional representative government from popular elections outcome, we may see a more equitable playing field. Again, they dont have to listen, and say why fix it if it aint broke?

You will see that in US and Westminster democracies, the key factor is an entrenched 2 party systems, both of whom are strong and genuine alternatives to votes. It also explains why the winning margins are thin. Singapore does not enjoy that position. PAP does not have to worry about dropping all the way to 51%. Even with that drastic drop they will continues to hold 65 seat comfortably for a long while. The 5% is based on the a good team that WP has. The diminishing marginal returns will quickly kick in.

To TFBH's point - they will take out their strongest contender by pulling other opposition candidates even if they have a clear and comfortable majority to muddy the waters and signal to Singaporeans that their main contender is not going to get an easy ride.
 
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Thick Face Black Heart

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
At the current rate of development, the PAP will still hold its position for a long time to come and will only lose votes where the opposition field convincing candidates. I say this because I do not see the opposition parties coming up with proposals or alternative plans for governing the country. The votes they win are from people who have become dissatisfied with the ruling party and select the lesser of two evils. If the other parties wish to gain a better position to be considered as an alternative government, they should begin making those plans and put them into a vision for the voters to consider. The last few decades was easier and more straightforward for the nation to progress - just do what the more developed countries are doing, at a cheaper cost. Now that Singapore has progressed to a level where she has come into new ground, some actions will be new and there is no one to follow, that's why the current leadership is somewhat lost and groping. So, this is the time for the opposition to come up with fresh proposals to take the country into as the PAP does not have the answers and the old man's days are over.

As an ex-Singaporean, I'd say rethink the current drift towards Mandarin and sway towards increased use of Bahasa. Singapore is at the heart of the Malay archipelago and the secular attitudes in Singapore can pave the way for Asian culture in an area of growth in South-East Asia. There is a big enough population (and market) in the region and Peesai still has the edge in technology and skill. It is better than playing second fiddle to Yankees or Ah Tiongland.

Cheers!


Political changes will continue to be incremental. Swing voters will want to see credible opposition candidates and they won't take the plunge simply because they are disgruntled.

Agree with you on the language part. But China cannot be avoided any more than you can avoid looking at an elephant in the room that has the potential to stampede you over. We have to continue engaging China economically and at increasing rate.

Prostituting to the yanks is the only geopolitically strategy that makes sense for Singapore. National security is impossible without US patronage and their willingness to both engage us as well as safeguard the sea lanes vital to our interests.

If the yanks reduce their engagement with us our neighbors will move in to crush us immediately
 
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akasha

Alfrescian
Loyal
Do you all think LKY will live to 2030?

Or that LKY will die very soon in weeks if not days

THE PARTY HE CREATED FROM THE SCUMS OF SOCIETY FILLED WITH EVIL BASTARDS GREEDY AND VICIOUS STILL REMAIN AFTER LKY DIE?

DREAM LONG LONG
 

Thick Face Black Heart

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
Opposition coming up with alternative policy proposals are well and good but the main thing to capturing the swing voter is image and branding. SDP has the most comprehensive policy proposals but they are easily forgotten and impact factor is not there.

Image, branding, and continual visibility through groundwork are the keys
 

greedy and cunning

Alfrescian
Loyal
Do you all think LKY will live to 2030?

Or that LKY will die very soon in weeks if not days

THE PARTY HE CREATED FROM THE SCUMS OF SOCIETY FILLED WITH EVIL BASTARDS GREEDY AND VICIOUS STILL REMAIN AFTER LKY DIE?

DREAM LONG LONG

ya man.
it needed to be all in the Familee now because chinese new year is coming and
familee members have to help out in spring cleaning.
once the house is cleaned , it said you die your business.
who cares who running the show. not its familee business anymore.
if the tiny island sinks all the members and lackeys will be enjoying life
with samleong catching kiwi in NZ. :biggrin::biggrin:
 

escher

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
If 100% new citizens crowded in TP GRC then Ho Jinx will win replace old fart.

New citanes are not dumb, from all the kpkp sentiments they do know how to make choices. Some even form new parties, Ah Neh Party, since the gahment piggy banks have plenty of money to plunder.

They come, walk in freely, the steal your jobs, they buy your subsidized HBD now they want to be your MP and government.

Next they want your country to be part of their Indian or Chinese state.

One thing for sure LHL will be either kicked out by voters or ask to resign if he lose more GRCs.

tokking cock.

As if PAP will last on after that smear of shit on sole of shoe LKY become a fucking rotting corpse.
One thing lucky for Singaporeans is that LKY built the destruction of his fucking PAP by packing in vicious greedy bastards that must pretend to be moral compasses

Before the first joss stick for LKY corpse finish burning, PAP will be no more.
 

winnipegjets

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
WP should go on negative ads in GE 2016. The PAP has done enough damage to itself. Voters need to be reminded of those misdeeds.
 

aurvandil

Alfrescian
Loyal
When the cohort analysis was done, the 2021 scenario was considered the extreme unlikely scenario. The main stream thinking then was that we will hit a good economic patch and things will be back to normal for the invincible PAP

Fast forward to 2014 and we are well past the point of no return. We have hit every single marker and milestone with remarkable accuracy. Going foward, the most likely outccome will be overall support for the PAP to drop to around 55 to 57% and for the 2/3 majority to be lost in 2016.
 

winnipegjets

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
When the cohort analysis was done, the 2021 scenario was considered the extreme unlikely scenario. The main stream thinking then was that we will hit a good economic patch and things will be back to normal for the invincible PAP

Fast forward to 2014 and we are well past the point of no return. We have hit every single marker and milestone with remarkable accuracy. Going foward, the most likely outccome will be overall support for the PAP to drop to around 55 to 57% and for the 2/3 majority to be lost in 2016.

If WP is quick in putting the PAP dirt out, PAP will no longer be government after GE2016. The PAP is beatable. It has done so much wrong that the odds are against it.
 

aurvandil

Alfrescian
Loyal
On the forming of a PAP led coalition, this is predicated on the assumption that the PAP will be able to continue to win a huge number of seats.

The reality in 2021 will be a lot more complicated. In 2011, the PAP won 81 out of 87 seats even though it only had 60% of the popular vote. This is possible because of gerrymandering of the constituencies to balance those with unfavorable demographics/voting patterns against those with favorable demographics/voting patterns. The PAP is unlikely to lose in 2016 because support for the PAP remains well above 55%. As long as the support is above 55%, it is possible to gerrymander with a high degree of confidence. At 55 to 57% support, it will not be possible to retain every constituency. Certain constituencies will have to be sacrificed so that the remaining constituencies can have a safe win. Hence the high chance of winning but with the 2/3 majority loss.

Come 2021, support will likely fall to below 55%. When this happens, it become impossible to gerrymander with a high degree of confidence. This is because of statistical sampling error. In that election, it will be possible to create one or two safe havens for LHL and his core team. The others will be battlegrounds where there is a real chance of the PAP losing. In 2021, there is therefore a significantly high chance of the PAP losing enough seats so that WP could potentially form an opposition coalition government with absolute majority. This does NOT mean that we will definitely get an Opposition coalition government. In such a scenario, we will likely see a replay of the Malaysian election outcome where seats are literally sold to the highest bidder. With the PAP billions, the PAP could well buy itself back into power.

Recently, there has been concern of new citizens being the deciding factor to turn the tide. The thinking behind this is somewhat simplistic that the new citizens will automatically be PAP supporters. This is simplistic because if you look at the statistics of Singapore marriages, we are fast approaching the point where 1 in 2 marriages is between a Singaporean and a foreigner. The reality is therefore again a lot more complex than that of the new citizens forming a solid PAP vote bank. In many instances, we are looking at a case of a new citizen married to a Singaporean. The political inclinations of such marriages is presently not well known and understood. From a policy perspective, opposition parties would be well advised to distance themselves from the shrill anti-foreigner stance of Gilbert Goh. The present WP position with regard to foreigners is close to being correct. We should welcome foreigners who are married to Singaporeans. What we need to restrict are economic migrants who have no family roots in Singapore. for those interested in marriage stats between Singaporeans and foreigners, you can check it out here:

http://www.nptd.gov.sg/content/NPTD...ween citizens and non-citizens, 1998-2008.pdf
 
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jw5

Moderator
Moderator
Loyal
Thanks for your effort aurvandil.

Hopefully the threadstarter will reply to you soon. He seems to have abandoned this thread temporarily. :(

On the forming of a PAP led coalition, this is predicated on the assumption that the PAP will be able to continue to win a huge number of seats.

The reality in 2021 will be a lot more complicated. In 2011, the PAP won 81 out of 87 seats even though it only had 60% of the popular vote. This is possible because of gerrymandering of the constituencies to balance those with unfavorable demographics/voting patterns against those with favorable demographics/voting patterns. The PAP is unlikely to lose in 2016 because support for the PAP remains well above 55%. As long as the support is above 55%, it is possible to gerrymander with a high degree of confidence. At 55 to 57% support, it will not be possible to retain every constituency. Certain constituencies will have to be sacrificed so that the remaining constituencies can have a safe win. Hence the high chance of winning but with the 2/3 majority loss.

Come 2021, support will likely fall to below 55%. When this happens, it become impossible to gerrymander with a high degree of confidence. This is because of statistical sampling error. In that election, it will be possible to create one or two safe havens for LHL and his core team. The others will be battlegrounds where there is a real chance of the PAP losing. In 2021, there is therefore a significantly high chance of the PAP losing enough seats so that WP could potentially form an opposition coalition government with absolute majority. This does NOT mean that we will definitely get an Opposition coalition government. In such a scenario, we will likely see a replay of the Malaysian election outcome where seats are literally sold to the highest bidder. With the PAP billions, the PAP could well buy itself back into power.

Recently, there has been concern of new citizens being the deciding factor to turn the tide. The thinking behind this is somewhat simplistic that the new citizens will automatically be PAP supporters. This is simplistic because if you look at the statistics of Singapore marriages, we are fast approaching the point where 1 in 2 marriages is between a Singaporean and a foreigner. The reality is therefore again a lot more complex than that of the new citizens forming a solid PAP vote bank. In many instances, we are looking at a case of a new citizen married to a Singaporean. The political inclinations of such marriages is presently not well known and understood. From a policy perspective, opposition parties would be well advised to distance themselves from the shrill anti-foreigner stance of Gilbert Goh. The present WP position with regard to foreigners is close to being correct. We should welcome foreigners who are married to Singaporeans. What we need to restrict are economic migrants who have no family roots in Singapore. for those interested in marriage stats between Singaporeans and foreigners, you can check it out here:

http://www.nptd.gov.sg/content/NPTD...ween citizens and non-citizens, 1998-2008.pdf
 

jw5

Moderator
Moderator
Loyal
Couple Of Points:

1. Good Evening Scroobal.

2. Trying to deceive forummers by using your clone to post again. :wink:

I am offended. You use to accuse me of being TFBH! Has it something to do with your thongs darling?.....Fucking faggot......LOL......LOL
 

jw5

Moderator
Moderator
Loyal
Just vote opposition until PAP becomes the opposition.

Don't bother about the PAP mole Scroobal predicting that PAP will continue to rule until 2030. He is trying to discourage ordinary sinkies from voting.
 
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