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Why PAP will continue to rule until 2030

scroobal

Alfrescian
Loyal
There has been a number of posts expressing the likelihood that PAP will lose the Government soon or in the near future. Both are not possible unless the Party splits or implodes.

1) PAP currently holds 80. It won 81 seats in GE2011 but lost one in a By-election. During GE2011. there was 26 contests, Tanjong Pagar was a walkover. It won 24 contests (SMC plusGRC). Those are powerful numbers.

2) The opposition must take 37 more seats from the PAP to remove its minority. Is that a possibility

3) Even if PAP only secures 43 seats, just missing the majority, can the Opposition unify to form a coalition or will the PAP end up running a minority Govt.

So we are looking at big numbers to see change and are there enough viable parties and candidates to mount the challenge.
 

Satyr

Alfrescian
Loyal
You don't need them to lose. Just deprive them of their two thirds and that might wake them up.
Singaporeans shouldn't be so concerned who rules so long as they take care of Singaporeans. If it is a reformed PAP, why not ?
 

scroobal

Alfrescian
Loyal
My sense is that PAP has already accepted that it will no longer command a big majority and will follow the norm that we see in western democracies where the party forming the Govt just garnered over 50% of the votes or they form a coalition. Both the UK and OZ are Coalition Government.
 

scroobal

Alfrescian
Loyal
I don't think losing its two thirds majority is going ti make much of a difference. The laws and constitution have been amended and powers vested in various instruments and organs of Govt that control will still be maintained.

Initially I thought that GE2011 results and the PM's apology had woken them up. I don't think anything has changed. The arrogance, the lack of transparency and the refusal to come clean on so many matters are still issues. Your point about they becoming better Govt does not seem to be the case.



You don't need them to lose. Just deprive them of their two thirds and that might wake them up.
Singaporeans shouldn't be so concerned who rules so long as they take care of Singaporeans. If it is a reformed PAP, why not ?
 

Leongsam

High Order Twit / Low SES subject
Admin
Asset
I am 100% sure that the PAP will reign supreme for the following reasons :

1. My good work in this forum is convincing its detractors that the PAP is the best.
2. The opposition are a bunch of clowns.
3. Singaporeans actually admire the PAP but don't like admitting to it in public so they pretend to be opposition supporters.
 

krafty

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
not really...i look up to them to make myself think that i am the best person and all other sinkies are bad apples, i will continue to vote for opposition to create a balance of good opposition politicians. i am sure leeder also feel the same as one sided party is not good for sinkieland.:rolleyes:
 

Satyr

Alfrescian
Loyal
I don't think losing its two thirds majority is going ti make much of a difference. The laws and constitution have been amended and powers vested in various instruments and organs of Govt that control will still be maintained.

Initially I thought that GE2011 results and the PM's apology had woken them up. I don't think anything has changed. The arrogance, the lack of transparency and the refusal to come clean on so many matters are still issues. Your point about they becoming better Govt does not seem to be the case.

Certainly, quite a few people have tried to change them from the inside and failed . George Yeo himself publicly said the need to be reformed , no doubt he was grasping at a straw, but it was a public admission. I think he is persona non grata now. So I don't hold out much hope either.
But I dont envy any party that takes over . They will have their work cut out alright.
 

Equalisation

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
In terms of numerics, it will be harder for the Opposition because over 20,000 new citizenships are given away each year which literally means new PAPPY votes. Multiply by 5 years, you get over 100,000 new citizens in between each elections. This is around 5% of eligible votes. Unless there is a 10 to 15% shift of existing votes from PAPPY to Opposition, it is very hard, though not impossible.:o
 

Leongsam

High Order Twit / Low SES subject
Admin
Asset
In terms of numerics, it will be harder for the Opposition because over 20,000 new citizenships are given away each year which literally means new PAPPY votes. Multiply by 5 years, you get over 100,000 new citizens in between each elections. This is around 5% of eligible votes. Unless there is a 10 to 15% shift of existing votes from PAPPY to Opposition, it is very hard, though not impossible.:o

Even if the opposition got more than 50% of the seats, the chances of that motley crew of amateur politicians being able to form a coalition to govern is next to impossible.
 

frenchbriefs

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
yes its not just about winning or losing seats and votes......PAP has too much economic power in this country,too many strategic economic interests......nearly 1/3rd of the economy is under their control.....and thats just temasek holdings alone.....look at the number of Singaporean companies that are GLC linked and run by PAP cronies.....PAP is literally a oligarchy or mafia of this country.

Before PAP can lose control they will send out the tanks and the troops first.....im prepared to acknowledge PAP as the next Communist Party of China......
 

Thick Face Black Heart

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
There has been a number of posts expressing the likelihood that PAP will lose the Government soon or in the near future. Both are not possible unless the Party splits or implodes.

1) PAP currently holds 80. It won 81 seats in GE2011 but lost one in a By-election. During GE2011. there was 26 contests, Tanjong Pagar was a walkover. It won 24 contests (SMC plusGRC). Those are powerful numbers.

2) The opposition must take 37 more seats from the PAP to remove its minority. Is that a possibility

3) Even if PAP only secures 43 seats, just missing the majority, can the Opposition unify to form a coalition or will the PAP end up running a minority Govt.

So we are looking at big numbers to see change and are there enough viable parties and candidates to mount the challenge.



In my opinion, very likely the PAP will try to form a coalition should the opposition remove its 2/3 majority. It will follow the time-honoured carrot on the stick approach - offering rewards in exchange for cooperation and at the same time punishing non-cooperation with its standard bag of tricks ranging from hawker centre ceiling fiascos to libel suits.

Am of view too that Aurvandil is correct about the 2021 as that is the demographic turning point where significant number of voters will reach retirement age and find their CPF locked up. 20% withdrawal at age 65 is not going to cut it for them.

Another pattern is that Singapore seems to follow a 20-year cycle. Our status as a sovereign nation which we first achieved on 31 Aug 1963 (via unilateral declaration of independence) marked the beginning of the first cycle which saw phenomenal industrial growth, and the forming of a coherent multi-cultural identity (not to be confused with an overall national identity or what it means to be Singaporean per se).

The second cycle began with the deep recession of the mid '80s, after which government policies moved from being people-oriented to being business-oriented and citizens starting to become economic digits. During the second cycle, wages were suppressed, CPF contributions were clashed, the asset enhancement framework for property drove prices up, and that was also the period when Singaporeans started to develop the famous kiasu-kiasi-kiachenghu mentality.

The third cycle began with the election of LHL as PM and that was when SG started opening the floodgates to foreigners which in turn caused all the problems we see today ranging from overburdening of infrastructure to underemployment of PMETs to declining service standards and declining overall quality of life.

The fourth cycle I suspect will begin around the 2020s. As usual, the start of a new cycle will be defined by our country having to face a major political or socio-economic problem. The first cycle started with our having to deal with merger, independence as well as the communists. The second cycle started with our having to deal with deep recession caused by the excesses of the previous cycle. The 3rd cycle started with the successful end of SARS and the global economic recession as a result of the 9/11 terror attacks and the dot-com bust.

And it will be the tackling of this national crisis that will cause major shifts in govt policy as well as the tenor of the country as a whole.
 
Last edited:

tanwahtiu

Alfrescian
Loyal
If 100% new citizens crowded in TP GRC then Ho Jinx will win replace old fart.

New citanes are not dumb, from all the kpkp sentiments they do know how to make choices. Some even form new parties, Ah Neh Party, since the gahment piggy banks have plenty of money to plunder.

They come, walk in freely, the steal your jobs, they buy your subsidized HBD now they want to be your MP and government.

Next they want your country to be part of their Indian or Chinese state.

One thing for sure LHL will be either kicked out by voters or ask to resign if he lose more GRCs.





In terms of numerics, it will be harder for the Opposition because over 20,000 new citizenships are given away each year which literally means new PAPPY votes. Multiply by 5 years, you get over 100,000 new citizens in between each elections. This is around 5% of eligible votes. Unless there is a 10 to 15% shift of existing votes from PAPPY to Opposition, it is very hard, though not impossible.:o
 

frenchbriefs

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
PAP form a coalition?they had 50 years to do it but they never had,no LKY only believes in one state one power rule.they are not even interested in a coalition parliament for christ sake.....let us all just praise Lee kuan yew and defend the headquarters of the revolutionary PAP!!!!!

In my opinion, very likely the PAP will try to form a coalition should the opposition remove its 2/3 majority. It will follow the time-honoured carrot on the stick approach - offering rewards in exchange for cooperation and at the same time punishing non-cooperation with its standard bag of tricks ranging from hawker centre ceiling fiascos to libel suits.

Am of view too that Aurvandil is correct about the 2021 as that is the demographic turning point where significant number of voters will reach retirement age and find their CPF locked up. 20% withdrawal at age 65 is not going to cut it for them.

Another pattern is that Singapore seems to follow a 20-year cycle. Our status as a sovereign nation which we first achieved on 31 Aug 1963 (via unilateral declaration of independence) marked the beginning of the first cycle which saw phenomenal industrial growth, and the forming of a coherent multi-cultural identity (not to be confused with an overall national identity or what it means to be Singaporean per se).

The second cycle began with the deep recession of the mid '80s, after which government policies moved from being people-oriented to being business-oriented and citizens starting to become economic digits. During the second cycle, wages were suppressed, CPF contributions were clashed, the asset enhancement framework for property drove prices up, and that was also the period when Singaporeans started to develop the famous kiasu-kiasi-kiachenghu mentality.

The third cycle began with the election of LHL as PM and that was when SG started opening the floodgates to foreigners which in turn caused all the problems we see today ranging from overburdening of infrastructure to underemployment of PMETs to declining service standards and declining overall quality of life.

The fourth cycle I suspect will begin around the 2020s. As usual, the start of a new cycle will be defined by our country having to face a major political or socio-economic problem. The first cycle started with our having to deal with merger, independence as well as the communists. The second cycle started with our having to deal with deep recession caused by the excesses of the previous cycle. The 3rd cycle started with the successful end of SARS and the global economic recession as a result of the 9/11 terror attacks and the dot-com bust.

And it will be the tackling of this national crisis that will cause major shifts in govt policy as well as the tenor of the country as a whole.
 

sochi2014

Alfrescian
Loyal
We need a Gorbachev in the PAP ranks to introduce Presristoika and Glasnost!

Maybe Lao Goh can fit the bill? :biggrin:
 

akasha

Alfrescian
Loyal
How long will LKY remain in the wheel chair and not in his coffin?

Days? weeks? months?

That will be how long PAP will continue to function as the fucker of Singapore.

Until LKY breath his last.

And then no more as the inherent rotteness of PAP make it turn to slime and stink and melt away.
 

soIsee

Alfrescian
Loyal
I don't think losing its two thirds majority is going ti make much of a difference. The laws and constitution have been amended and powers vested in various instruments and organs of Govt that control will still be maintained.

Initially I thought that GE2011 results and the PM's apology had woken them up. I don't think anything has changed. The arrogance, the lack of transparency and the refusal to come clean on so many matters are still issues. Your point about they becoming better Govt does not seem to be the case.

From all your posts, you don't seem to understand the PAP let alone the general population of Sinkie who make up the middle and lower income group.

There is a saying " When push becomes shove" then you will see what is the reaction of the folks who got the shove, continuously.

Obviously in real life, you are a coward. Put you in JB and see when you kenna robbed and whacked what your reaction is.

I bet 101%, you will kpkb about it, afterall the incident is all over, bearing the bruises you so deserved! LoL
 

akasha

Alfrescian
Loyal
yes its not just about winning or losing seats and votes......PAP has too much economic power in this country,too many strategic economic interests......nearly 1/3rd of the economy is under their control.....and thats just temasek holdings alone.....look at the number of Singaporean companies that are GLC linked and run by PAP cronies.....PAP is literally a oligarchy or mafia of this country.

Before PAP can lose control they will send out the tanks and the troops first.....im prepared to acknowledge PAP as the next Communist Party of China......

PAP will do that.

Singaporeans can be the Palestinians fighting bravely against the white phosphorus shells and napalm of PAP bastards

Kill the PAP before they kill us

AND PRAY LKY GO INTO HIS COFFIN SOON AND PAP IMPLODE INTO SLIME AND FILTH AND STENCH
 
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