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The Maths of CPF Life unveilwd

TopSage

Alfrescian
Loyal
http://i.imgur.com/knvsBI3.png

Assume the inflation rate of 3% which is the inflation rate of past yrs (this is highly conservative as prolonged use of QE and low interest risk spurring elevated inflation.in the coming years)

Assume a nearly incompetent manager is hired to manage the funds and he generates zero real.return only manage 3% to match inflation.

The trick is the 10 yrs lockup of $155K during which it earns nothing.

The $155K after.10 yrs grows to.$208K@3% return.

After that they pay abt 9.5K a yr on the standard scheme.

Per annum $208K will generate abt $6K.

This means your.principal.decrease by $3.5K on the first yr ....you repeat this calculation for 21 yrs until age 86.

At age 86, there is about $100K-120k or so from your.original. sum. If you drop.dead , your beneficiaries get $0 at age 86.

The CPF Life.scheme makes $100K or more surplus per person on a super conservative assumption of 3% returns on funds. It can go up much higher if returns are higher above inflation.

The govt can again use its old trick of lending this money cheaply to GIC and in effectively transfer this surplus to GIC.

Based on the above CPF Life becomes another reserve/surplus building exercise for the PAP.

Most of the pple who suffer are middle and lower income groups whose main savings is in CPF.

Financial analysts who look at this has recommended Pple to sign up for the basic scheme insead of the standard scheme to minimize their loss
 
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EloiEater

Alfrescian
Loyal
When it is time to withdraw CPF.
I think it is time that CPF Board allows certified private financial institutions to provide annuity.
Why the lack of choice?
 

wwabbit

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
The only way I can reproduce the numbers you got from the calculator is by setting birthyear to ~1949 (~65 years old). This is wrong because this assumes that the $150k is the amount in the RA after the 10 years of interest. Not $150k grown into $208k

The correct birthyear to set is 1959 (55 years old), when the minimum sum is left in the RA for 10 years before the payouts start.
Monthly payout is ~$1100 with the Basic Plan in this case without L bonus (will be higher with L bonus and/or Standard Plan)

Your other mistake is you assume that the amount earned from investment is a percentage of the original principle, but that's not the case. Amount earn from investment is percentage of the remaining principle. If you are interested in learning correct way to calculate annuities taking into account interest from decreasing principle, I'd recommend reading up on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_value_of_money
 

liongsum

Alfrescian
Loyal
The most damning aspect is NO CHOICE.
How would the minimum sum impact on a person with stage 4 cancer at the age of 62?
Why on earth would this person choose to put aside money till age 85 or 90?
 

liongsum

Alfrescian
Loyal

Thank you but no thanks.
Having to apply for it is very different from having a choice.

<< You can apply to withdraw your CPF savings on medical grounds if you
i. are suffering from an illness which renders you permanently unfit from ever continuing in any employment; or
ii. have a severely reduced lifespan; or
iii. are terminally ill. >>

Apply OK. If proven, the options must be given. Instead, we have to wait for the Board's consideration which means that it might not be approved.
No wonder somebody said we have become beggars.
 

liongsum

Alfrescian
Loyal
No opt out option for some people who want to opt out?

Yes. Especially when it is new and for existing people, the elderly in particular.
Mark my words, euthanasia is round the corner. Maybe not here, but we can always go elsewhere.
 

liongsum

Alfrescian
Loyal
The only way I can reproduce the numbers you got from the calculator is by setting birthyear to ~1949 (~65 years old). This is wrong because this assumes that the $150k is the amount in the RA after the 10 years of interest. Not $150k grown into $208k

The correct birthyear to set is 1959 (55 years old), when the minimum sum is left in the RA for 10 years before the payouts start.
Monthly payout is ~$1100 with the Basic Plan in this case without L bonus (will be higher with L bonus and/or Standard Plan)

Your other mistake is you assume that the amount earned from investment is a percentage of the original principle, but that's not the case. Amount earn from investment is percentage of the remaining principle. If you are interested in learning correct way to calculate annuities taking into account interest from decreasing principle, I'd recommend reading up on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_value_of_money

Why bother with calculations? Topsage wrote if one dies at 80+, nothing is left to his estate.
Heh, the money ($155K) bought something (the annuity) without your permission.
It's gone.
You die the next day, the estate gets nothing.
I hope I'm very much mistaken.
 

wwabbit

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Why bother with calculations? Topsage wrote if one dies at 80+, nothing is left to his estate.
Heh, the money ($155K) bought something (the annuity) without your permission.
It's gone.
You die the next day, the estate gets nothing.
I hope I'm very much mistaken.

Yes you are much mistaken. If you die at age 55 + 1 day, your estate gets almost all of the $155k.
As you withdraw your monthly sum from CPF Life, the amount of money left for your estate will keep reducing until it reaches 0.

Before the CPF Life scheme (i.e. Minimum Sum Scheme), when this reaches 0, you stop receiving the monthly payout. With the CPF Life, you will continue to receive the monthly sum.

Same thing will happen even if you take all your money out at age 55. If you spend everything before you die, there will be no money in your estate.
 

wwabbit

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
That is not necessarily true. If you opt for Life Basic, your beneficiary gets nothing if you die at age 55 plus 01 days.

The only plan that had 0 bequest was the old CPF Life Income plan, which is no longer available. Back then there were 4 plans - Balanced, Plus, Basic and Income.

Now there are only two choices, Basic and Standard. Both plans have bequests. Standard plan (which is the default plan) gives a larger monthly payout and lower bequest than Basic.
 

Thick Face Black Heart

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
The only plan that had 0 bequest was the old CPF Life Income plan, which is no longer available. Back then there were 4 plans - Balanced, Plus, Basic and Income.

Now there are only two choices, Basic and Standard. Both plans have bequests. Standard plan (which is the default plan) gives a larger monthly payout and lower bequest than Basic.



Thanks for the info.

Simpler is better.

But still, I rather have the dough back.
 
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