Will China hold together as a united country

Thick Face Black Heart said:

You posted the Wikipedia article knowing full well that it provides mainly a historical account. The USA of today is totally different from the USA of the 18th/19th century. Then it was much poorer - which is what China is on a per capita basis today. Also, the USA had a doctrine discouraging it from interfering with the affairs of the world. Today, it has the opposite doctrine. Not only is the USA the only superpower in the world, it actively interferes with world affairs in order to sustain its dominant position. No country in such a position breaks up easily - not when there is so much money to be made and so much power to be shared by being a single monolithic entity. We are talking here not of ordinary political power, but the power of a global economic and military superpower.

My Harbans Singh analogy is spot on because the late HS belonged to a by-gone era, and his brand of comical politics is no longer practiced by serious opposition politicians.

Let me also say here that the 21st century will be the century of the United States. All world affairs will revolve around the USA - not china or russia or any other country. And the US will control and shape the world in ways people cannot even begin to imagine today. Not many people realise that. But soon, people will.

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frenchbriefs said:

russia face its 2nd defeat from where?its only enemy was United states back in the 50s to 70s but now its reasserting its dominance in europe by doing whatever the fuck it wants and US unable to stop them,with china's backing Russia knows USA have their hands tied.....Putin himself said times have changed,Russia now has means and resources and technology that previously werent at its disposal and USA is now playing a different ball game.

China and Russia was isolationist....but now they are the complete opposite,look how much china has expanded globally,China not only exports its citizens,they literally have a finger in every economic pie in every country in the world,in every continent,u can even find chinese in the depths of africa.....like algae spreading across oceans,China will infect the world like the t virus.

i dont think US is in any way or shape capable of playing or even negotiating with russia and china,russia and china has already showed US that they are not the big boys around and they can take whatever territory they want and invade any country they want.....make all the noise u want.....USA is no longer the big bully in the yard.

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scroobal said:

The Han Chinese mind and philosophy is still based on mandate from heaven. They have never understood or appreciated politics where citizens are treated as equals and have right to be involved, Their focus is therefore an instinct for self-survival for those below or near the poverty line and entrepreneurship for those who are better off.

In times of trouble there will be dissension and even rebellion but there is no intention to take territory or carve out a patch of land for political or political self determination.

It is one of the reason why the British and the Japanese despite their much smaller numbers could overwhelm the country. It does not mean the Chinese will readily cooperate or be easily subjugated. Both the British and Japanese found out conquest was one thing but subjugation was totally a different proposition and paid dearly.

Only the British found the Chinese secret much later and went into trade and found synergy in Chinese entrepreneurship. Hong Kong remains the shining example of that meeting of the minds.

So yes to holding together but internal rebellion as cry for help.

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frenchbriefs said:

russia face its 2nd defeat from where?its only enemy was United states back in the 50s to 70s but now its reasserting its dominance in europe by doing whatever the fuck it wants and US unable to stop them,with china's backing Russia knows USA have their hands tied.....Putin himself said times have changed,Russia now has means and resources and technology that previously werent at its disposal and USA is now playing a different ball game.

China and Russia was isolationist....but now they are the complete opposite,look how much china has expanded globally,China not only exports its citizens,they literally have a finger in every economic pie in every country in the world,in every continent,u can even find chinese in the depths of africa.....like algae spreading across oceans,China will infect the world like the t virus.

i dont think US is in any way or shape capable of playing or even negotiating with russia and china,russia and china has already showed US that they are not the big boys around and they can take whatever territory they want and invade any country they want.....make all the noise u want.....USA is no longer the big bully in the yard.

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Thick Face Black Heart said:

Russia will want to aggressively expand its sphere of influence in order to ensure its survival. I don't think it can succeed. It has not industrialized successfully and it is perpetually hampered by its poor geography which makes transportation of goods and troops difficult. It will also not be able to forever count on a commodities boom to sustain its revenues.

The US appears weak because it has suffered two major financial crisis within 8 years of each other, and also over-extended itself in Iraq, squandering valuable resources and allowing Russia an opportunity to resurface. Moving forward, not so clear that US will remain weak. People have been talking about the decline of the US since the 1990s but that has not happened. Compared to the European countries and Japan, the US has far less population density, even when restricted to arable or accessible land. This means scope for expansion. The US also has the most dynamic population compared to European countries and Japan except perhaps for Germany. The only serious contender to US hegemony will be China, which I feel will be mired in its own internal problems rather than overtaking world affairs. China also cannot gain access to the world's oceans without US sanction.

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eatshitndie said:

historically, there had been instances of states attempting secession from the u.s. on several occasions, with the largest being the southern states culminating in the civil war. in modern times, there have been talks and propositions to secede by some states, but these are just hot air, as majority of americans would not stomach another civil war. the most likely future scenario for secession and possible breakup of the union is when mexicans and central americans take control of the southwestern states by prolonged mass illegal immigration to a point when illegals displace americans by sheer numbers. we're beginning to see the effects of overwhelming displacement in california, where easily many small towns and farming communities in the middle of the state are dominated by hispanics, many of them poor migrant workers from across the border. they bear children by the dozens per family, and their children and children's children are u.s. citizens by birth, and they are a political force to be reckoned with. their allegiance is still pretty much with mexico.

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chonburifc said:

Mehico zha bors very very extreme. Either they are very very chio or very very ugly. In between not chio and not ugly, very hard to find. Paiseh, I not in that part of the world yet. But so far, I have a few mehico customers and seen both extremes.

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Jah_rastafar_I said:

Wtf?


Those are the reasons why it's failing you put it like those are stumbling blocks. I can apply a similar logic too. China appears weaker than the US cos a significant percentage of their population is still poorer than the US their technology has yet to catch up and their economy has shrunk but it will all change soon.

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Sideswipe said:

underestimate PRC China at your own peril. the so-called experts get it wrong on China again and again over the decades. some people think that the autonomous regions ( border provinces ) would break away from China. there is no chance in hell that will happen for the foreseeable future.

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eatshitndie said:

historically, there had been instances of states attempting secession from the u.s. on several occasions, with the largest being the southern states culminating in the civil war. in modern times, there have been talks and propositions to secede by some states, but these are just hot air, as majority of americans would not stomach another civil war. the most likely future scenario for secession and possible breakup of the union is when mexicans and central americans take control of the southwestern states by prolonged mass illegal immigration to a point when illegals displace americans by sheer numbers. we're beginning to see the effects of overwhelming displacement in california, where easily many small towns and farming communities in the middle of the state are dominated by hispanics, many of them poor migrant workers from across the border. they bear children by the dozens per family, and their children and children's children are u.s. citizens by birth, and they are a political force to be reckoned with. their allegiance is still pretty much with mexico.

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Thick Face Black Heart said:

The US can endure multiple policy blunders. China on the other hand has deep structural problems due to geography that cannot be solved. The US will have access to both sides of the Atlantic and will dominate the world's oceans. China on the other hand will not be able to extend its sphere of influence into SEA without US tacitly agreeing. In any case, I am not arguing that China is likely to fall apart soon. Far from it. All I'm arguing is that China's growth miracle is ending, and it will create problems that will divide the central govt's attention and create massive rifts within the country. Whether it will fall apart one day is anyone's guess. Meanwhile, the global game of geopolitical chess will continue to be dominated by US who will maneuver each piece to its advantage.

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eatshitndie said:

depending on heritage and or ancestry. if much of their genetic makeup are euro-spanish, they will look more like ang mo. if they're mostly of native american or aztec stock, they will be shorter, darker, stockier, have short but powerful legs, and look like mayan losers. some are cousins from central and south america. the most isolated tribes settled in the amazon basin, and they exhibit asian looks. all native american genetic history trace back to asia.

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Thick Face Black Heart said:

Russia will want to aggressively expand its sphere of influence in order to ensure its survival. I don't think it can succeed. It has not industrialized successfully and it is perpetually hampered by its poor geography which makes transportation of goods and troops difficult. It will also not be able to forever count on a commodities boom to sustain its revenues.

The US appears weak because it has suffered two major financial crisis within 8 years of each other, and also over-extended itself in Iraq, squandering valuable resources and allowing Russia an opportunity to resurface. Moving forward, not so clear that US will remain weak. People have been talking about the decline of the US since the 1990s but that has not happened. Compared to the European countries and Japan, the US has far less population density, even when restricted to arable or accessible land. This means scope for expansion. The US also has the most dynamic population compared to European countries and Japan except perhaps for Germany. The only serious contender to US hegemony will be China, which I feel will be mired in its own internal problems rather than overtaking world affairs. China also cannot gain access to the world's oceans without US sanction.

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Thick Face Black Heart said:

There is a little talked about but extremely important line in China -- the 15 inch isohyet. East of this line, rainfall exceed 15 inches per year, crops can grow in relatively fertile soil, and there is a chance to get out of the misery of poverty. West of this line, rainfall is less than 15 inches per year, and poverty is a permanent feature of the landscape.

You can see this line here: http://s983.photobucket.com/user/drstats/media/BRF/china/china-popdensity.jpg.html

Not surprisingly, most of the population of China is concentrated east and south of the 15 inch line, and forms the land of the ethnic Han Chinese.

The west of the line serve as buffer regions for China which are crucial geopolitically to protect the Chinese heartland from incursion.

However the question is whether China will be able to hold on to its buffer regions west of the 15 inch isohyet in the coming decades. We are already seeing the first signs of trouble arising from vast economic inequality. We are also seeing the end throes of the 30 year long Chinese economic miracle.

When China matures, can it hold itself together? We will see this work itself out over the next 30 years. I suspect a few surprises might be in store.

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sleaguepunter said:

The CCP central govt is facing the same problems as the emperors in the past, provincial governors getting too powerful. But unlike dynasties of the past, current provincial bosses has no access to the guns, all guns are under the central military comission who chair by the current Chinese president. So the chance of any provinces breaking away for central rule is nil.

As for xinjiang revolts, it only involve a small minority, as long ministry of state security (MSS)
中华人民共和国国家安全部, don't mess up, no way will the revolts succeed. Most Chinese don't care who rule over the lands as long masses have enough food, shelter and a relative good standard of living. The June 4 protest didn't start because the people want western democracy, it started partly due to inflation of food prices. I remember watching news in the late 80s where everyday news confirm had news about Chinese food prices and it affect on ordinary people. The bloody protest was started due to price increase and mourning for disgraced hu yaobang who die around that time before the movement Kenna hijacked by students who want more freedoms.

Current CCP govt has done a good job stifling dissents, as long the central govt can keep the economy buoy, little chance of any public uprisings.

Current US foreign policy is playing into Chinese hand as it force the russian toward Beijing, give more bargain power to Beijing when dealing with the russkies. Beijing not really treating Washington as rival as Beijing potential enemies will always be her direct neighbor, the russkies who share thousands of miles of common borders. While Washington papers keep harping on the Beijing rise to power as danger to US interest, Beijing play along so as to get the russian to transfer military technologies to Beijing.

Tibet will remain under Beijing rule indefinitely. Dalai Lama already so old, once he dead, the whole issue will go away as Beijing can hand pick the next Dalai Lama and the Tibet govt in exile will be illegitimate by then.

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frenchbriefs said:

why the fuck does Russia have to worry about its survival?U forgot russia was the country that single handedly defeated the germans in wwii......they lost more than 11 million russians trying to kill 5 million germans....russia killed more germans than all of the allied countries combined,UK,US and allies killed less than 700,000 germans.In fact if america hasnt interfered in wwii,most likely the germans would have been defeated after the turning point of 1944 and the whole of europe would have been under stalin's control.

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