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Economic News

enjoylife77

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Received news that Princess Cove units will be able to sell to foreigners below the 1m mark (above 500k) but then again, most of their units are already above the 1m mark.
PCove overpriced it above RM1m to meet regulatory requirement targeting foreigner during launched. Till today choice unit available according to sales team.
 

FHBH12

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It's not just oil: Trouble brews for Malaysia
Nyshka Chandran | @NyshkaC
Wednesday, 7 Jan 2015 | 9:02 PM ET

Malaysia's economic outlook is expected to deteriorate significantly in 2015 following three years of robust growth, and experts say it's not just due to crashing oil prices.

Sharp currency depreciation and the introduction of a goods & services tax (GST) are widely expected to drag 2015 gross domestic product (GDP) growth below 5 percent from an estimated 5.8 percent in 2014.

The dramatic decline in crude is also playing a role for emerging Asia's only major energy exporting economy. Brent's 54 percent plunge over the past six months has noticeably hurt Malaysia, where petroleum products and liquefied natural gas account for 14 percent of exports.

Barclays recently reduced its 2015 GDP forecast to 4.5 percent from 5.5 percent following a similar downgrade by the World Bank to 4.7 percent, both well below the government's 5-6 percent growth forecast.

Upbeat November trade data on Wednesday showed Malaysia's trade surplus at a three-year high but failed to improve the country's outlook. According to ANZ, the trade balance could potentially be an "Achilles' heel" in 2015 due to pressure from lower oil prices.

Currency volatility

The Malaysian ringgit weakened to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar since July 2009 this week, chalking up losses of over 12 percent in the past six months. The pair is currently trading around 3.5580, within striking distance of 3.60 and not far from 3.70, a level not seen since the Asian Financial Crisis.

"I don't think there's a lot of optimism or hope for relief in the short-term. On a relative value basis, it looks attractive on the short side," Todd Elmer, currency strategist at Citi, told CNBC on Wednesday.

Capital outflows on prospects of a U.S. interest rate hike this year are weighing on the ringgit, according to experts. With foreign reserves dropping from $134.9 billion in 2013 to $120.7 billion as of December, officials have requested that government-linked companies scale back foreign investments in order to contain outflows, Barclays noted.

Hello GST

Prime Minister Razak is expected to introduce a GST tax of 6 percent in April, which could add 1.2 percentage points to headline inflation and weigh on discretionary spending, according to Barclays.

The tax also led the bank to lower its 2015 inflation forecast to 2.6 percent, from 3.8 percent - significantly below the government's 3-4 percent forecast.

Moreover, Barclays notes that concerns about the government's 3 percent fiscal deficit target in 2015 have increased despite proactive measures like the GST and deregulation of fuel prices. The group believes the government may need to further reduce expenditure to achieve its target.

Financial worries

Reports that quasi sovereign wealth fund 1Malaysia Development (1MDB) missed a payment of $560 million loan due at the end of December for the second time added to Malaysia's woes.

With Prime Minister Najib Razak chairing its advisory board, the state investor firm was the latest catalyst for worries over Malaysia's financial stability. The opposition party's national publicity secretary said 1MDB's failure to repay the loan would hurt the financial health of Maybank and RHB Bank, two of the country's biggest banks and 1MDB's primary lenders, according to local media.

"Some partial good news [in this matter] is that if they are overseas assets, they can be repatriated back. It will reel in a lot more ringgit so 1MDB can pay off the ringgit denominated obligations," Vishnu Varathan, senior economist at Mizuho Bank, told CNBC.

"However, the dollar liabilities may become a huge issue so the government may be under constraint as to how to dish out the now constrained budget," he added.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102319556
 

snowbird

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Its really bad luck for Malaysia in 2014.
Three aviation accidents (that Air Asia aircraft though registered in Indonesia but still owned by Malaysian) in a year, the mega December flood, the crashing oil prices. the falling RM, the shrinking foreign reserves........
And worse, this controversial 1MDB is a ticking time bomb and missing loan repayment twice is bad news. If not handled carefully will just explode and will not only cause negative repercussion in the financial circle but also political upheaval with major casualties!
 

snowbird

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Loyal
RTS is the major game-changing project to give Princess Cove a push, but no sound no news thus far after passing 31 Dec'14 deadline.

The RTS should be furthest down the line of consideration for implementation at the present moment.
Right now, MY should be very busy trying to find funds to settle the missed payments for the 1MDB.
1MDB (like our Temasek) is another Malaysian sovereign wealth fund but lacks transparency and full of controversies.
It is severely cash-strapped and its uncertainty and missed payment is causing volatility the in market, putting its lenders in great risk!
The latest news is MY second-richest man, Ananda Krishnan, is in talks to become an investor.
Its strange to invite a member of public to be investor for a sovereign wealth fund and this put MY's financial credibility in doubt even if its just a fire fighting strategy.
Expect to see some fire sale of national assets anytime soon to raise funds and cash rich SG may even be roped in or invited.
Watch this episode closely and what will ultimately happen to 1MDB will cause lots of repercussion!
 

Vohkster

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
The three bank merger is off, GST set to kick in, rumors in the market say this year CNY will be the quietest in recent years, oil price keeps dropping, our dear First Lady n her hubby keep telling u they can't sleep becos of Mat Rempits. That basically sums up 2015
 

snowbird

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Loyal
Due to the weakening of the RM and falling oil prices, the PM will be announcing a restructured 2015 Budget on Tuesday.
Look out for the news which may affect everyone one way or another.
 

enjoylife77

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Up sin tax, 2nd casino license, ad valorem fuel tax on RON 97, additional property levy/stamp duty on foreigner, currency control again?
 

snowbird

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Up sin tax, 2nd casino license, ad valorem fuel tax on RON 97, additional property levy/stamp duty on foreigner, currency control again?

Already, there was an allocation of RM500 million for the great flood victims and rebuilding so definitely there will be drastic cut in spending, just where, on what and how much.
Also there will probably additional means to increase revenue and again on what and how much, so beside what you mentioned, anything is possible.
 

Vohkster

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
Went car shopping last few days. Seems the car salesmen are spreading rumours that if the RM continues to weaken, car prices may be adjusted upwards in mid year
 

PuteriWorld

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Went car shopping last few days. Seems the car salesmen are spreading rumours that if the RM continues to weaken, car prices may be adjusted upwards in mid year

My friend just bought a brand new Jap car in Malaysia for S$30k. In Singapore its about S$115,000 for the same make and model. Almost 4 times difference. Absurd, ridiculous, carrot.

He is so happy driving around Iskandar Malaysia in his new car.
 

Manhattan

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500 more jobs for nusajaya.

Brandt International to invest US$56m to grow BPO business

Servion vice president and region head of Asia Pacific Abhijit Banerjee, Brandt International CEO Munirah Looi and Cisco Malaysia country manager Albert Chai at a media briefing in Kuala Lumpur, January 29, 2015. — DNA picKUALA LUMPUR, Jan 29 — Brandt International Sdn Bhd said it will be investing up to RM200 million (US$56 million) over the next three years in an effort to become one of the leading BPO (business process outsourcing) companies in Malaysia.

Currently, the company runs its Malaysian BPO operations from its office in Bangsar South, Kuala Lumpur, which has a capacity of 65 seats.

By the end of the first half of this year, it will expand its BPO business with a new site in Nusajaya, Johor that will have an initial capacity of 100 seats, but which can scale up to 500 seats.
 

FHBH12

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Central banks slash interest rates to spur growth
Mok Fei Fei
The Straits Times
Friday, Feb 06, 2015

Central banks around the world, particularly those in Asia, are cutting interest rates in a bid to spur growth, with Australia the latest to move.

Australia's Reserve Bank cut its base rate by 25 basis points yesterday to 2.25 per cent, a record low.

"As a net energy exporter, the lower prices in commodities and oil have been a negative for Australia's economy and its gloomy assessment seems to have led to the cut," Capital Economics senior Asia economist Daniel Martin told The Straits Times.

He expects central banks in Australia, China and India to make more cuts this year.

India's central bank kept rates unchanged at its meeting yesterday but it made an unscheduled cut last month, joining 10 others that also did so, including Canada, Denmark and Russia.

Nomura chief economist for Asia ex-Japan Rob Subbaraman said yesterday that more central banks in Asia could intervene in the markets.

"With no inflation concerns, a China slowdown, faltering exports and currencies that have been appreciating in effective terms, several Asian central banks should be contemplating whether to ease monetary policy further to shore up domestic demand and to lessen the potential for strong capital inflows," said Mr Subbaraman.

Nomura said China, Thailand, South Korea and India could cut rates further this year.

Central bank policies featured prominently at a Fullerton Fund Management client briefing yesterday.

Its chief executive and chief investment officer Manraj Sekhon said markets have to be braced for volatility, with so many central banks moving aggressively.

"The most notable aspect of how prominent central banks are going to be in the markets... is a reflection of how uncertain the environment is and how uncertain the growth-deflation dynamic and trade-off is," he noted.

Mr Sekhon said Fullerton Fund Management is taking a balanced portfolio approach to manage what it expects will be a volatile year. It sees equities as having room for growth, given that lower interest rates around the world should ensure high liquidity in financial systems.

Global growth should improve this year, largely due to the United States, which is expected to expand by between 2.5 per cent and 2.8 per cent, and an engineered soft landing in China, said Mr Gerard Teo, the head of strategy and currency at Fullerton.

Fullerton is upbeat on consumption and infrastructure shares in Asia due to rising incomes and urbanisation, said Mr Andrew Maule, its head of equities research.

Health-care stocks, financial companies and firms in the smart devices or e-commerce business are also favoured.

Asian shares are forecast to deliver 10 per cent total returns this year, including dividends, in line with earnings growth, said Mr Maule.

Investors will have to be wary of high-yield Asian bonds as the bond default rate is expected to rise to 2.5 per cent this year, up from 0.9 per cent last year, cautioned Fullerton's head of credit research, Ms Loong Siew Huey.

This article was first published on February 4, 2015.
Get a copy of The Straits Times or go to straitstimes.com for more stories.

- See more at: http://business.asiaone.com/news/central-banks-slash-interest-rates-spur-growth#sthash.OcbQuZp9.dpuf
 

cow138

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That's a welcome relief for property buyers.
Central banks should be very careful about rising interest rates.
With the global growth still very tentative.. Any shock to the system would trigger unrecoverable reaction.
 

PuteriWorld

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Somehow I believe that cheap pump prices will make more consumers drive around to spend money on shopping and makan, thus simulating the economy. 2015 looks set to be a better year than 2014.
 
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