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Thread: Malaysia GE 2013

  1. #1
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    Default Malaysia GE 2013

    Malaysia's GE 2013 is finally here.

    Officially, the polls show BN making big gains. There is even talk that they could recapture the 2/3 majority.

    Unofficially, the numbers do not look quite so rosy. There was been speculation that BN's numbers have been "statistically massaged" to hold the coalition together. The raw number suggests that BN is in fact neck to neck with PKR. The difference is so small that it is impossible to call the outcome owing to statistical sampling error. This raw number is being suppressed to prevent people jumping ship from BN.

    Beyond the numbers, it is always useful to talk to people on the ground. The general impression is that Malaysians are tired of BN and want them out. Unlike Singapore where the PAP has the loyalty of the pre-65, BN does not seem to have any specific demographic that is particularly loyal to them. The propaganda message of strong BN support has been very effective and most Malaysians seem resigned that BN will stay in power. In spite of this, many seem determined to vote PKR to send BN a strong message. The sentiment is therefore very similar to the recent PE BE where up till the last minute, the PAP thought they had a good chance in an otherwise close fight.

    I am going to be the first to call it. Given what the last raw numbers were and the sentiment on the ground, I think there is going to be "freak" election result that sees BN fall from power.
    Last edited by aurvandil; 08-04-2013 at 05:58 AM.
    Sincere advice to PM Lee - You need to heal the PAP. The only way you can do this is announce your retirement and pave the way for a new leader to take your place.

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    Default Re: Malaysia GE 2013

    I hope you are right, if BN can fall in Malaysia, perhaps the day of PAP not in power would happen soon as well.

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    Default Re: Malaysia GE 2013

    This is an even bleaker assessment. The author expects MCA and MIC to be wiped out. If this really happens, it will be a rout for BN.

    ---

    Malaysia's Multi-Ethnic Coalition Near Collapse

    http://www.asiasentinel.com/index.ph...317&Itemid=178

    UMNO may have to go it alone as Chinese, Indian parties crumble

    Regardless of who wins Malaysia's 13th* general election, expected to be held on April 27, the historic multi-ethnic coalition that has ruled the country since independence will have likely collapsed.

    "Whatever the results, the Barisan coalition will cease to exist as we know it because the Malaysian Chinese Association, Gerakan and the Malaysian Indian Congress will be wiped out," a Kuala Lumpur-based businessman told Asia Sentinel. "Assuming UMNO forms the government with Sabah and Sarawak parties, there will be no Chinese and Indian representatives in the government. And that is not a good scenario to have."

    The Barisan and the opposition, made up of the Parti Keadilan Rakyat headed by Anwar Ibrahim, the ethnic Chinese Democratic Action Party and the fundamentalist Parti Islam se-Malaysia are embroiled in what is being called the closest election in the country's history, with both sides predicting victory. One opposition strategist said the race would probably come down to a margin of 10 seats either way in the 222-seat Dewan Rakyat, or parliament.

    For most of the time from its 1957 inception as an independent nation, the country has been governed by a carefully engineered amalgam of ethnic parties led by the United Malays National Organization, the Malaysian Chinese Association, the Malaysian Indian Congress and, to a lesser extent, Gerakan, which has faded in recent years.

    However, in the debacle of the 2008 election, the MCA was left with just 15 seats in parliament. Gerakan, the second mostly Chinese ethnic party, ended up with just two seats. The MIC was left with three. UMNO won 78.

    In the upcoming polls, political analysts say the MCA could see its total seats fall to just one or two, roiled as the party is by years of major scandals and political infighting that once impelled one of the contending factions to secretly film party leader Chua Soi Lek having a sex romp in a hotel room in a vain effort to drive him from politics. The resurgent opposition Democratic Action Party expects to claim the vast majority of Chinese voters. Gerakan, whose base is in Penang, which is controlled by the DAP, could be wiped out completely, the analysts say. The MIC is equally riven by scandal and infighting, with its members and leadership gravitating away towards the Hindu Rights Action Force, or Hindraf.

    This is not a scenario conjured up by the opposition. It has been discussed within UMNO councils for months as the party has watched the other components of the Barisan drift into disaster. It is at least partly responsible for the rise in race-baiting in recent months as UMNO and its attack-dog ancillaries such as the Malay supremacy NGO Perkasa raise the spectre that ethnic Chinese, and particularly Chinese Christians in a Muslim country, will take over the reins of power.

    Ethnic Malays make up 50.4 percent of the population, Chinese 24 percent and Indians 7.1 percent, according to the CIA World Factbook. UMNO sees its chance to keep its leadership of the country intact by winning every available ethnic Malay vote and hopefully luring ethnic Indians back into the fold.

    Thus indigenous tribes, most of them in East Malaysia, with 11 percent of the population, probably hold the key to the 2013 election, most political analysts feel. The states of Sabah and Sarawak and the federal territory of Labuan control 57 of the 222 seats. The 165 peninsular seats are almost equally divided between the Barisan and Pakatan Rakyat.

    As the MCA in particular descended into chaos, an UMNO operative told Asia Sentinel months ago that UMNO basically decided it would have to go it alone in the 13th general election. While the other ethnic parties will field candidates in the election, UMNO will try to take as many constituencies dominated by ethnic Malays as possible and hope the component parties can have some impact.

    If not, the 57 East Malaysia seats -- depending on how the parties controlled by the current chief ministers fare in the election -- will control peninsular Malaysia's destiny. In both Sarawak and Sabah, the bonds of loyalty that keep elected lawmakers tied to particular parties are slippery indeed. In one case in the 1980s, when the opposition unexpectedly took control of the statehouse in Kota Kinabalu, the victorious coalition locked their winning members behind a chain link fence to keep them from being bribed away by the losers.

    Should the collapse scenario actually take place, it will produce a "mono-ethnic and unelectable opposition that will be constrained to the Malay belt" in the Peninsula, where 20 million of the 28 million Malaysians make their home -- without the help of the East Malaysian states. Both chief ministers have been implicated, although not indicted, in scandals involving untold amounts of money in bribery for timber sales. They would be pleased to talk to the opposition in exchange for immunity from prosecution.

    If UMNO is to rebuild the coalition, win or lose it means its gamble to conduct the election by appealing to the fears or prejudices of its Malay constituency has failed the country at large, and that it must regain the trust of the complex ethnic mosaic that makes up the rest of the country.

    "What's left is UMNO seats, high Malay-majority seats," said an opposition political operative. "They might be propped up with some Malay seats in Sarawak, and some Sabah UMNO seats. If they lose, they would have to reconstitute. They have to start moderating their line and to try to get back the support of the minorities. Assuming they hold power, I would assume over the next five years they would have to reconstitute."

    It is unsure what the implications are for Malaysian society as a whole. Tension has simmered for decades, since 1969 riots took the lives of hundreds on both sides of the ethnic divide, exacerbated by the New Economic Policy created in 1971 to give economically disadvantaged rural Malays a leg up. Malays get the majority of government jobs and places in universities. The country has been on a 30-year campaign to ensure rising ethnic Malay ownership of the commanding heights of the business community.

    So-called Ali Baba companies dot the landscape, with the "Ali" being an ethnic Malay usually sitting behind a polished and empty desk, while "Babas," a nickname for Straits-born Chinese, run the business from the backroom. Billions have been wasted on government-linked companies given to UMNO cronies to run into the ground. An explosive report by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists released today said as much as RM200 billion* was funneled out of Malaysia last year to Singapore, an astonishing burst of capital flight.

    "Malaysia's system of holding back the dynamic Indian and Chinese minorities has turned it into a bastion of mediocrity in a fast-growing region," Wall Street Journal columnist Hugo Restall wrote in an editorial today. "The country's best and brightest leave because the cronyism and racial quotas in education and employment hold them back.
    Sincere advice to PM Lee - You need to heal the PAP. The only way you can do this is announce your retirement and pave the way for a new leader to take your place.

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    Default Re: Malaysia GE 2013

    I do not favour Anwar's party either though. It appears too Western centric in nature.

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    Default Re: Malaysia GE 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by steffychun View Post
    I do not favour Anwar's party either though. It appears too Western centric in nature.
    You moron!!!!!! You would prefer the corrupt and despotic BN over the opposition simply because you bought into the msm propaganda about PKR!!

    You go over to MY and try living under their corruption laden bumiputra policies!!!!!

    Fuck you!!!!!!!!!!!
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    Default Re: Malaysia GE 2013

    I have yet to meet a Chinese Malaysian who will support MCA. BN performance will depend on how much they can consolidate the Malay votes.

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    Default Re: Malaysia GE 2013

    east msia holds ze key ...

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    Default Re: Malaysia GE 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by aurvandil View Post
    I am going to be the first to call it. Given what the last raw numbers were and the sentiment on the ground, I think there is going to be "freak" election result that sees BN fall from power.
    I will second that. I think the alternative coalition has a good chance. I read somewhere that Lim Guan Eng is contesting a Federal seat this time round. Preparing to be the DPM, some said.

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    Default Re: Malaysia GE 2013

    Dear Arun

    The read from the ground when I was up in Malaysia last week is that 1) MCA is looking at a total wipe out in JB. 2) PKR states are not ripe for Umno fight back. 3) UMNO Malay majority states are at risk, esp rural heartlands. We shall see how far they swing esp over the felda and corruption issue. The battleground states are now in the Malay heartlands and the Kampungs. Umno losing or a wafer thin majority held up by S n S the BN fixed deposit ? Will Malay Nationalism and Jingoism Perkasa win again ?

    The traditional UMNO malay constituents are 1) Civil Service 2) Malay Kampungs 3) Malay elites 4) Malay Urban Voters and class subsidies. We shall see how far they split



    Locke







    QUOTE=aurvandil;1493258]Malaysia's GE 2013 is finally here.

    Officially, the polls show BN making big gains. There is even talk that they could recapture the 2/3 majority.

    Unofficially, the numbers do not look quite so rosy. There was been speculation that BN's numbers have been "statistically massaged" to hold the coalition together. The raw number suggests that BN is in fact neck to neck with PKR. The difference is so small that it is impossible to call the outcome owing to statistical sampling error. This raw number is being suppressed to prevent people jumping ship from BN.

    Beyond the numbers, it is always useful to talk to people on the ground. The general impression is that Malaysians are tired of BN and want them out. Unlike Singapore where the PAP has the loyalty of the pre-65, BN does not seem to have any specific demographic that is particularly loyal to them. The propaganda message of strong BN support has been very effective and most Malaysians seem resigned that BN will stay in power. In spite of this, many seem determined to vote PKR to send BN a strong message. The sentiment is therefore very similar to the recent PE BE where up till the last minute, the PAP thought they had a good chance in an otherwise close fight.

    I am going to be the first to call it. Given what the last raw numbers were and the sentiment on the ground, I think there is going to be "freak" election result that sees BN fall from power.[/QUOTE]
    Last edited by lockeliberal; 08-04-2013 at 01:12 PM.

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    Default Re: Malaysia GE 2013

    MCA and MIC will be annihilated.. A very narrow win for UMNO and BN in this upcoming GE..

    Johore will remain in the hands of the BN..

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    Default Re: Malaysia GE 2013

    Last week, got a note from this chap that Anwar will be PM. I checked around including Malaysian and international media and blogs and it did not indicate anything of that sort. The trouble is that this chap is well connected, calm, objective and reliable.

    Now i see Aurvandil saying the same thing. One of Asia Sentinel's founders is also very close to the power politics in Malaysia including key individuals and they too are leaning to BN collapsing albeit without UMNO losing power.

    In the darkest days of Anwar's plight only Australia came to his defence, no one else.
    Last edited by scroobal; 08-04-2013 at 12:43 PM.

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    Default Re: Malaysia GE 2013

    Yes,Anwar the gay will be the new PM of Malaysia,those who call him Gay may have to prove themselves soon,including MM Lee LKY who claimed that his experts advised him so,LOL

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    Default Re: Malaysia GE 2013

    Just my rants. About BN in Johor..Johor is the state with the greatest support for BN. If BN in Johor dont support the PM...the PM will have to step down.

    And the reason why BN has such strong support in Johor is that the cina support them. Majority of Cina will support BN cos they hate anwar,,,so they would rather let the past dictate their vote than to vote for the future. Like PAP supporters in singkie land. the worse thing about these Cinas is that they fucking work in singapore and praise BN but also complain they get discriminated due to bumiputra policies.

    FUCK the Mudland Chinese for taking advantage of singapore, and fuck the pap for discriminating against singaporeans and supporting these foreign trash.

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    Default Re: Malaysia GE 2013

    Agree with you, bro! The Chinese in JB are traditional supporters of BN. Mahathir used to be their idol. I wonder however whether that has changed. My reading of that territory is a few years old already. I could be outdated. Maybe you'd like to countercheck your reading too.

    I don't blame the M'sian Chinese for using our system. I feel much closer to them than those PRCs and Indian national especially from the Indian high caste group.

    But yes, fuck the FamiLee Leegime PAP scum for screwing the nation with bad policies.



    Quote Originally Posted by The_Hypocrite View Post
    Just my rants. About BN in Johor..Johor is the state with the greatest support for BN. If BN in Johor dont support the PM...the PM will have to step down.

    And the reason why BN has such strong support in Johor is that the cina support them. Majority of Cina will support BN cos they hate anwar,,,so they would rather let the past dictate their vote than to vote for the future. Like PAP supporters in singkie land. the worse thing about these Cinas is that they fucking work in singapore and praise BN but also complain they get discriminated due to bumiputra policies.

    FUCK the Mudland Chinese for taking advantage of singapore, and fuck the pap for discriminating against singaporeans and supporting these foreign trash.

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    Default Re: Malaysia GE 2013

    Thanks for the support. I feel that if Singapore was allowed to grow and evolve without the pap stirring shit..we would not need all these mudland cina assholes in our country and they would have to deal with BN without the cover of singapore..

    Even if the sentiment for BN has changed amongst the Cina, its too little too late right? like in singapore,,,the time for change was in 2011,,but guess what? 60% STILL vote pap,,,so if the tide has turned against BN..its too little too late...these mudland cinas deserve what they get,,,

    I blame the pap for allowing all these mudland cina for gaming the system,,free scholarshits etc while the local get nothing. Also we dont need all these FTs from pinoyland, india and cina as we locals could have made things work better...its the PAP that has screwed things up...

    Quote Originally Posted by Hawkeye1819 View Post
    Agree with you, bro! The Chinese in JB are traditional supporters of BN. Mahathir used to be their idol. I wonder however whether that has changed. My reading of that territory is a few years old already. I could be outdated. Maybe you'd like to countercheck your reading too.

    I don't blame the M'sian Chinese for using our system. I feel much closer to them than those PRCs and Indian national especially from the Indian high caste group.

    But yes, fuck the FamiLee Leegime PAP scum for screwing the nation with bad policies.
    Last edited by The_Hypocrite; 08-04-2013 at 03:14 PM.

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    Default Re: Malaysia GE 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by The_Hypocrite View Post
    Just my rants. About BN in Johor..Johor is the state with the greatest support for BN. If BN in Johor dont support the PM...the PM will have to step down.

    And the reason why BN has such strong support in Johor is that the cina support them. Majority of Cina will support BN cos they hate anwar,,,so they would rather let the past dictate their vote than to vote for the future. Like PAP supporters in singkie land. the worse thing about these Cinas is that they fucking work in singapore and praise BN but also complain they get discriminated due to bumiputra policies.
    6 months ago, i would support your views but currently i not so sure liao as kopi sessions with some jb friends suggest the chinese votes are splitting away from MCA. A couple of them live in Gelang Patah which lim kit siang is eyeing, according to them, if LKS really go there, it will be a landslide victory for LKS. another who stay near pelangi who a MCA supporter is not so confident in a MCA victory at where he is staying. In true fact, many chinese are losing faith in BN, many of the chinese talents have left home for aboard in order to advance their careers and that left a bad taste in chinese parents mind as children no longer with them.
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    Default Re: Malaysia GE 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by sleaguepunter View Post
    6 months ago, i would support your views but currently i not so sure liao as kopi sessions with some jb friends suggest the chinese votes are splitting away from MCA. A couple of them live in Gelang Patah which lim kit siang is eyeing, according to them, if LKS really go there, it will be a landslide victory for LKS. another who stay near pelangi who a MCA supporter is not so confident in a MCA victory at where he is staying. In true fact, many chinese are losing faith in BN, many of the chinese talents have left home for aboard in order to advance their careers and that left a bad taste in chinese parents mind as children no longer with them.

    In fact i wonder why it has taken so long for the chinese in JB to turn against BN. The rot has set in for a long time already. Its not as if discrimination in the educational system is anything new as well.

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    Default Re: Malaysia GE 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by Hawkeye1819 View Post
    In fact i wonder why it has taken so long for the chinese in JB to turn against BN. The rot has set in for a long time already. Its not as if discrimination in the educational system is anything new as well.
    when everyone is making good living and able to send children to singapore for education, most really dont give a fark who is in charge. as for why support BN, Dr M ran a very successful campagin to brainwash the chinese, especially in johor, that chinese will be destroy if anwar get into power. many johor chinese work in the public and private sector over here, while their income about the same as us and most will buy a flat here, be it with a msia or spore spouse, most if not all also buy a johor property for either investment or retirement. They are the real winners in singapore success story.
    FTrashs are killing Singaporeans.......

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    Default Re: Malaysia GE 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by sleaguepunter View Post
    many johor chinese work in the public and private sector over here, while their income about the same as us and most will buy a flat here, be it with a msia or spore spouse, most if not all also buy a johor property for either investment or retirement. They are the real winners in singapore success story.
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    Last edited by mojito; 09-04-2013 at 07:25 AM.
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    Default Re: Malaysia GE 2013

    There might have been true in the past.

    Fast forward to 2013 and we see PAS increasingly taking away UMNO's share of the vote from conservative Malays in the kampungs. The Malay urban voters who are mainly middle class have been successfully wooed away by Anwar's PKR. This leaves only the civil service and Malay elite as the final pillars of Malay support. This base is too narrow for UMNO to win national elections which is why I had previously wrote that unlike the PAP and pre-65, UMNO does not seem to have any observable demographic bastions of support.

    MCA and MIC play much more significant roles than just the number of seats they win. They used to play the role of delivering votes to UMNO's Malay candidates. The Chinese and Indians who used to vote for MCA and MIC did so under the assumption that they needed to do so to get "protection" from a Malay dominated government. This fear seems to have dissipated and appears to have replaced by a sense of loathing for MCA and MIC politicians. This is well reflected in the numbers which is why the decimation of MCA and MIC seem inevitable. It this happens, then we are looking at a rout rather than a close fight.

    For Sabah, I fail to understand the logic of why it would be a safe bet for UMNO. The UMNO leaders had recently undertaken a massive military operation there which saw loss of Filipino lives. After closing operations, they expect the Filipinos they granted citizenship to vote for them and be their key to victory??? For the last election, BN took 20 out of 25 seats in Sabah. I am expecting this number to fall for GE 2013.

    Quote Originally Posted by lockeliberal View Post
    The traditional UMNO malay constituents are 1) Civil Service 2) Malay Kampungs 3) Malay elites 4) Malay Urban Voters and class subsidies. We shall see how far they split
    Last edited by aurvandil; 09-04-2013 at 07:29 AM.
    Sincere advice to PM Lee - You need to heal the PAP. The only way you can do this is announce your retirement and pave the way for a new leader to take your place.

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