Political analysts & DPM Teo say fight is close between PAP & WP

Asst. Prof. Eugene Tan:

Although it is a four-cornered contest, the race will effectively be a two-horse race. The Workers' Party (WP) and the incumbent People's Action Party (PAP) are the main contenders. The by-election is a battle, a way station for them as they move towards the next General Election (GE), which promises to be the real watershed election...

The reality is that, in a crowded race that this by-election is, voters - especially Opposition supporters - are mindful that should their votes split, they will be handing victory to the PAP. In such circumstances, as was demonstrated in the 2011 GE, Opposition voters are likely to pool their votes behind the candidate who they regard as being the strongest Opposition candidate. As such, the possibility of Mr Jeyaretnam and Mr Lim losing their electoral deposits is high.

http://www.todayonline.com/Commenta...0117-0000013/Four-candidates,-two-horse-race?


Dr Derek da Cunha:

Dr Derek da Cunha, author of Breakthrough: Roadmap For Singapore's Political Future, an examination of the 2011 General Election, said: "The real advantage for the PAP is the fact that this is a snap poll that will occur ahead of what could be a difficult year economically. That said, I would contend that the contest at this stage is evenly matched between the PAP and the WP."

http://www.straitstimes.com/premium...se-fight-between-pap-and-wp-analysts-20130117


DPM Teo Chee Hean:

DPM Teo Chee Hean and MP in neighbouring Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC expects a "close fight" and hopes residents "will choose who can best represent them and their interests."

On paper, it looks like a straight contest between PAP candidate, surgeon Koh Poh Koon -- a self-described heartlander and former Punggol resident -- and WP's sales trainer Lee Li Lian, who last contested in Punggol in 2011, getting 41 per cent of votes.

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/live-blogging--nomination-day-coverage-020048291.html

Teo Chee Bye should come out and support KPK, thereby ensuring a win for LLL. The chee bye looks like a loser, acts like a loser, IS a loser.

If the contest is at this stage close between PAP & WP then there is every chance of WP pulling ahead with its superior ground game.

Detailed analysis of GE 2011 results suggest that WP only needs about 2,300 swing votes to win Punggol East.

ray_of_hope said:

If the contest is at this stage close between PAP & WP then there is every chance of WP pulling ahead with its superior ground game.

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aurvandil said:

Detailed analysis of GE 2011 results suggest that WP only needs about 2,300 swing votes to win Punggol East.

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It is possible for them to pick those votes up during the ground game. Today's ST reports that party bigwigs will knock on every single door:

WP candidate and party bigwigs to knock on every door
Published on Jan 17, 2013, ST
By Andrea Ong

IT WILL be the Hougang by-election strategy all over again for the Workers' Party (WP).

Knock on every door, deploy every one of its MPs to comb the flats in the ward, and fire its shots at three planned rallies.

The WP's intensive, carefully coordinated battle plan last May sent Mr Png Eng Huat into Parliament. Now, the party hopes the strategy will work for its Punggol East candidate Lee Li Lian too.

Asked what she would do differently from the 2011 General Election when she contested the ward, Ms Lee, 34, said: "I will do what I have done previously, but I will do more."

The sales trainer, who obtained 41 per cent of the vote in a three-cornered fight two years ago, aims to visit all 127 Housing Board blocks in Punggol East over the nine-day campaign.

"So we really need to be running," she quipped, before meeting voters at Rivervale Plaza with WP chairman Sylvia Lim, Aljunied GRC MP Chen Show Mao and Non-Constituency MP (NCMP) Gerald Giam.

The party bigwigs later split up to visit HDB residents while Ms Lee and Ms Lim campaigned together. Party insiders said the six elected MPs and two NCMPs will each lead a small team of volunteers and fan out to knock on doors and hand out fliers so they can cover more ground.

The party used this strategy during last year's Hougang by-election. In the last few days of that campaign, Mr Png and the MPs even managed to squeeze in one more round of house visits.

With all its key people fanning out, the party can cover about 15 blocks a day, said a member who was involved in the Hougang campaign.

Ms Lee's family is also behind her. Her husband, Mr Jacky Koh, has been a tireless companion, taking photos and even ironing her blouse for Nomination Day.

Mr Koh, 36, a telecommunications consultant, and her storekeeper father were among a boisterous crowd of WP supporters at the nomination centre yesterday.

Dressed in blue and waving flags, they cheered loudly when she pledged in her speech to serve residents wholeheartedly, manage the estate diligently and stand up for their rights.

For this campaign, Ms Lee will also shore up her social media presence. Her Facebook fan page went live on Tuesday night.

But she said nothing beats the personal touch and face-to-face contact. "I really hope I can go out there and meet as many people as I can, so that they can feel me," she said.

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they are just pointing out the obvious. all of us here can be political analysts too

hurley said:

they are just pointing out the obvious. all of us here can be political analysts too

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Ah Hock and Muthu can utter the same opinion. Whether they will ever be quoted in the press, let alone taken seriously by anyone, is another matter altogether.
This is what is called "standing".

I'm surprised that anyone from the PAP would publicly say that it is a close fight, possibly making it a self-fulfilling prophecy. The last thing PAP needs is for people to think that it is a close fight, making it more likely for them to vote for one of the two main contenders.

wwabbit said:

I'm surprised that anyone from the PAP would publicly say that it is a close fight, possibly making it a self-fulfilling prophecy. The last thing PAP needs is for people to think that it is a close fight, making it more likely for them to vote for one of the two main contenders.

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Bro,

I think PAP must say its a close fight. If they say sure win and act arrogant, it may pisses voters off and vote for opposition instead.

In this type of 55-45 fight (PAP still favorites), it make sense for PAP to say its a close fight and for WP to adopt underdog status. Just my opinion.

wwabbit said:

I'm surprised that anyone from the PAP would publicly say that it is a close fight, possibly making it a self-fulfilling prophecy. The last thing PAP needs is for people to think that it is a close fight, making it more likely for them to vote for one of the two main contenders.

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I still remember the time in GE 2006 when it was LHL vs a bunch of newbies from WP. PAP people were talking about a 70% 80% win and in the end he got only 63% which was below the national average for PAP. I think they learnt a lot from that.

wwabbit said:

I'm surprised that anyone from the PAP would publicly say that it is a close fight, possibly making it a self-fulfilling prophecy. The last thing PAP needs is for people to think that it is a close fight, making it more likely for them to vote for one of the two main contenders.

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I agree with you. Teo Chee Hean's remarks betrays his lack of political savvy. The proper thing for him to have said is what any politician anywhere would say, namely, "We have a strong message and a good track record. On that basis, while we respect our opponents, we are cautiously optimistic about our prospects of retaining the seat."

ray_of_hope said:

I agree with you. Teo Chee Hean's remarks betrays his lack of political savvy. The proper thing for him to have said is what any politician anywhere would say, namely, "We have a strong message and a good track record. On that basis, while we respect our opponents, we are cautiously optimistic about our prospects of retaining the seat."

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Of course, you realise that "we are cautiously optimistic" and "it's a close fight" are basically the same thing.

PAP don't fancy their chances now, its not about arrogance, it about ground sentiments.

A relatively safe seat with a potential high flyer (Palmer) has now become a liability with a newly-minted candidate (possibly a fall guy)

nothing is safe, not even the GRCs

metalmickey said:

Of course, you realise that "we are cautiously optimistic" and "it's a close fight" are basically the same thing.

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Perhaps in your mind. Not mine.

Rear admirer Teo also wants to become an anal-yst?

6000kmApart said:

PAP don't fancy their chances now, its not about arrogance, it about ground sentiments.

A relatively safe seat with a potential high flyer (Palmer) has now become a liability with a newly-minted candidate (possibly a fall guy)

nothing is safe, not even the GRCs

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The main issue is that this is a by-election and by that fact PAP does not have the edge.
The WP's ground game is equal if not superior to the PAP.
Another factor is that, Ms Lee, for all her flaws, is considered endearing to many voters. they relate well to someone like her who is down-to-earth.
She is viewed as a suitable replacement for Palmer who exuded charm, which the other 3 guys appear to be lacking.

tanwahp said:

Rear admirer Teo also wants to become an anal-yst?

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He is trying to emulate the captain.

I hope WP can pull off a win, anything is better than pappies.
but it is highly doubtful.

feelers on the ground say, people are scared to pop their heads out of their asses, so they are gg to act blur and elect the anus guy.

Has ET sign contract with the state media? knn he is the one they always quote.