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Why PAP will win Ponggol BE

neddy

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
1. PAP control the election date. They found a suitable candidate. They know the weaknesses of the Opposition.

2. Dr Chee will play into the PAP hands by field a candidate to split the Opposition vote.

3. Single-seat representative - WP & Sdp will not want to miss the chance. 2016 is too far away.

4. A By-election is not in PAP favour at this time with AIM saga. Why is LHL rushing into BE. He must be confident.

5. Voters in pre CNY happy mood. Incumbent advantage.
 
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sleaguepunter

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
That won't happen again. The reason for the swing is the change in opposition candidate. Who's going to be the knight in shining armour this time?

LTK was a unknown even though he did ran on WP ticket in the 80s. Hougang felled to him because the residents were tulan at tang guan seng for not helping them. hougang was craved out of the punggol smc in 1988, where the ppl who were forced out of the lands in punggol in the early 1980s. these ex-punggolites had been loyal supporters of pap since independence, my old man ever went to help pap election team of punggol during the 70s. pap always won in high majority in punggol.

in the 70s, (this i heard from the older folks) the pap govt told the pig farmers that govt want to develop the pig rearing industry, want to export pork to japan etc etc... govt want to centralised the industry, so many of the pig farmers from lim chu kang were told to relocate their farms to punggol, many of these farmers has to invest in new technolgies and strict hygenic waste product management in order to get singapore pork into japan market. yet by late 70s, dunno what happen, govt no longer follow thru with this policy and started forced redevelopment program. even then the ppl still supportive of pap as shown by the ok showing in the 1988GE. but 3 yrs on in 1991, the frustration boiled over and LTK really "pick up bull balls" as he in the right place and the right time in latched on the effect of the frustrations suffer by these poor farmers and fishermen. of course being a teochew help. but then, not all residents there are teochew, my family are not teochew and my old man dont know LTK beforehand but voted for him anyway because of the imcompetent tang guan seng.

my beef is that sometime it not the calibre of the candidate but the frustrations of the voters had that will decide an election result. are the residents in PE tulan enough to turn their backs en mass on pap?
 
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DuYunQi

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
I won't give pappies the idea that they have a good advantage for this BE.. cos the recent events don't seem to have made the public move too much in their favour.

I say this because Palmer fell from grace, in almost the same way YSL did.. an extra-marital affair. And even till now, details are still sketchy to me, as to how the affair saw light. Some say he was "forced" to quit cos a report ran in a newspaper, cos the SMS texts was sent to the paper.. and some report says he quit by his own decision.

Following that, as if scripted in a movie.. the AIM incident came into public scrutiny after reports of Aljunied-Hougang town councils showed below par performances, and WP hit back on the sale of AIM.

From what I hear from my friends, none of them believe the sale was the right move as they believe the IT system of the town councils should not have been treated as a money-making tool, since it was developed in the town councils. One friend even said that the town councils should sell the software, but retain ownership and use the money made to help residents, or needy Singaporeans.

I really think it is too early to say that pappies will "surely" win this pungol BE, as the public seems to be seething with frustration and close to anger, not only over the recent spate of incidents, but also the issues pertaining to the previous GE, and even BE in Hougang.. issues relating to living costs, rising housing prices, foreigners numbers.. and also.. the transport woes.. SMRT breakdowns and delays seem to be a common thing nowadays. And let's not forget the PRC bus drivers protest, that could possibly lead to an increase in bus fares and hike in other transport fares.

The public is very sensitive to issues to things that AFFECT them directly. Yes, it seems a little too late for those of us who are more aware of indirect happenings.. but how can you blame them when most of these ppl have families, jobs/careers, health and also financial matters to WORRY about?

If WP didn't show to sinkies the AIM incident, alot of them might not even bother to THINK if this is really a good or bad thing, cos they might feel that it may not affect them. But, not all things are so simple.. and if we continue to be ignorant to things happening around us, we could be dying of loss of blood, through bleeing from unknown wounds caused by flying debris.. which was from the incident in the first place.

If pappies were really SO CONFIDENT, they could have immediately called for BE b4 the AIM thing came to light, just after the report on the town councils was shown for all to see.

Seriously, I hope CSJ don't behave recklessly as he had seem to be showing in the past, and if SDP really sends a candidate, at least do some good to the image to their party.

I really hope, however, that the opposition can co-operate and work out something, so as NOT to split the voters in this coming BE. That would be an interesting BE for all to see.

And lastly, I hope those voters who are to vote in this BE, can really think hard about who they want to put into the government, or whatever.. because I feel that if they just continue to be like the daft majority in the last GE, things won't happen.
 

neddy

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Even with a straight one to one fight, there is no guarantee that the Opposition will win.

General Election 2011: Punggol East
Party Candidate.......... Votes... %
PAP... Michael Palmer.... 16,994... 54.54

WP.... Lee Li Lian......... 12,777... 41.01
SDA... Desmond Lim.... 1,387... 4.45
Total ........................ 14,164... 45.46

There are fewer voters in 2013, how is this playing out?
 
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Thick Face Black Heart

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
No oppo goes into a contest, whether a straight or MCF contest, expecting to win. There must be the vision of preparing the ground for the future. Which means the process of electoral contest and ground engagement is a very long term commitment, the fruit may not be borne until many years later.

In the long term WP has its strategy correct. It has studiously avoided getting entangled in inter-party rivalry and has been steadfast in being a lone ranger. This is politically necessary when the other parties simply don't match up in terms of political acumen and even basic grassroots engagement.

That is why WP accepts the reality of MCF. In the long run, to try to avoid MCF is futile unless you wish to just keep yourself in a few wards. It is also the nature of politicians to be ambitious. WP does not believe in turf sharing or compromise. The candidates want a piece of the cake. A growing party full of ambitious candidates or wannabe candidates cannot afford to go soft on expansion. The members will not have it that way.
 
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zhihau

Super Moderator
SuperMod
Asset
was think a 3CF may actually allow an opposition victory. just a feeling :smile::smile::smile:
 

wwabbit

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
The 3CF cannot help the opposition. The situation here is a lot different from PE2012 where there was a candidate that was actually supported in some extend by both opposition and PAP supporters. GE2011 already drew the line between WP and the PAP in this ward, so there will be no such identity crisis in this BE.

The WP won't mind losing this BE to a 3CF I feel. Having to run the PETC for 3+ years may be a burden they could do without. If they can force all the other opposition parties to lose their deposits they will internally call this a big victory.
 

metalmickey

Alfrescian
Loyal
my beef is that sometime it not the calibre of the candidate but the frustrations of the voters had that will decide an election result. are the residents in PE tulan enough to turn their backs en mass on pap?

It sounds like the way that Potong Pasir was lost. At that time, a lot of shipyard workers were laid off (inevitable due to upgrade in technology), and the PAP MP for Potong Pasir was in charge of the shipyards. So Chiam came in at a time when people were upset at the incumbent.

What is going to make the residents of Punggol East so tulan about the govt in the last 18 months that they will desert PAP en masse? A lot of things have surfaced, but it could be perceived as the PAP cleaning house, or the PAP willing to change its ways. All these revelations have a double edged effect - they expose ssome wrongdoing, but it also looks like an apology and a promise that things will get better (even though it's most likely just a promise).

I cannot think of any reason for a big swing against the PAP. I cannot think of peoples' lives being affected in concrete and immediate ways that would trigger this swing. And some more Lee Li Lian is still Lee Li Lian.
 

metalmickey

Alfrescian
Loyal
Following that, as if scripted in a movie.. the AIM incident came into public scrutiny after reports of Aljunied-Hougang town councils showed below par performances, and WP hit back on the sale of AIM.

From what I hear from my friends, none of them believe the sale was the right move as they believe the IT system of the town councils should not have been treated as a money-making tool, since it was developed in the town councils. One friend even said that the town councils should sell the software, but retain ownership and use the money made to help residents, or needy Singaporeans.

The AIM issue was raised precisely because a by-election was looming around the horizon. There is no way that the PAP could have called for elections after the town council report and before the AIM issue because the time gap was only 1 day or 2.

This time around, there are not a lot of direct things happening, only indirect things. Plus the Dr Koh person does not come off as obviously an asshole so I regard him as a strong candidate. There's absolutely no harm for the WP to try to win that seat but I don't think that the seat is going to fall right now.
 

wwabbit

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Makes me wonder if the PAP called for the election so soon because they think the MND review would be rather damaging.
 

HTOLAS

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
The White Paper on Population is going to be even more damaging to the PAPzis; hence the haste to call the BE now.

Makes me wonder if the PAP called for the election so soon because they think the MND review would be rather damaging.
 

kukubird58

Alfrescian
Loyal
hahaha...typical case of damned if you do and damned if you don't do it....
call early also kena questioned...
delay also kena questioned...
but of course 1 thing is clear......lhl will call it at the time he assessed to be his best advantage....this is a no brainer.
 

Fook Seng

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
was think a 3CF may actually allow an opposition victory. just a feeling :smile::smile::smile:

Now you are thinking the PAP's winning margin was not so large after all. Most of us forgot Desmond Lim's 4.5%. If DL gets lost, you may need a vote swing of only 5.5% to take the seat. The Palmer factor could give you 2%, MRT,COE, CPF, housing etc should give you the rest. This is potentially what CSJ is out to destroy.
 
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metalmickey

Alfrescian
Loyal
Now you are thinking the PAP's winning margin was not so large after all. Most of us forgot Desmond Lim's 4.5%. If DL gets lost, you may need a vote swing of only 5.5% to take the seat. The Palmer factor could give you 2%, MRT,COE, CPF, housing etc should give you the rest. This is potentially what CSJ is out to destroy.

The problem with that argument is that all those things should have already been factored into the 2011 results. 2011 took place when all those problems (except MRT) existed, which means MRT alone is the difference.
 

methink

Alfrescian
Loyal
hahaha...you prediction does not make sense...
the dilution of votes in a MCF should affect opps more than papee.

haha... you forgot in a BE, vote swings are more telling. Yes PAP may lose this one as the ground is not sweet.

My prediction: if SF, 43:56 (PAP:WP or SDP) +/- 5% std. dev. Or MCF, 34:36:30(PAP:WP:SDP) +/- 5% std. dev.
 
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