Leader Board - Punggol East By Elections

tanwahp · Dec 29, 2012

aurvandil said:
VW/CSJ will never do well in 3 corners because they are at the extremes of the spectrum. They can score respectable scores in straight fights but will get eaten alive if there is a moderate Opposition alternative in a 3 corner. There is even the chance they might lose deposit which will be hugely damaging to SDP.

Which is why I think SDP has done calculations to show hand for Punggol East but I wonder if they have done calculated risks.

aurvandil said:
TJS is the only king card WP will fear. The demos of PE is such that it is a relatively young constituiency. TJS will has big credentials and will come across as a lot more credible than LL. While WP won't lose deposit, the loss margin should be large enough for SDP to declare they have beaten WP.

First, TJS is not likely to return to SDP. Second, I don't see him as a heavyweight. With TJS plus VW whom we are favourable towards plus Ang Yong Guan who appears in the papers and on TV nearly every day, the team could not muster past 40% of the votes. It will be silly for SDP to declare victory with 10% of the votes even though 10% for a third candidate is impressive.

tanwahp · Dec 29, 2012

Goh Meng Seng said:
There is nothing "sneaky" about me... WP people are the "Sneaky" ones, members and supporters hide behind clones taking potshots on people like me who disagree with their party. That is what "sneaky" is all about. And I am never "duplicitous". I have been consistent, open and upfront on my position and stance, unlike PAP IB as well as WP people.

Did it ever cross your mind that these supporters view it the exact opposite way. That you are taking potshots at WP and they disagree with you and that's why they are raising their disagreements?

You don't think that only you can criticize others and others cannot criticize you?

"Sneaky" might have been harsh, but a small example. You obviously don't measure WP in the same way as SDP or NSP. You will explain away a mistake made by NSP or SDP and if WP makes the same mistake, I am sure you will post in more than one thread.

I certainly find you open and upfront. But certainly not consistent.

aurvandil · Dec 29, 2012

TJS gave an interview some time back. He said his intention was to contest every feasible election. He sat out the Hougang BE to avoid losing to WP. It is unlikely he will sit out the PE BE, especially if all WP can produce is LL. Just like LTK won't take in KJ even if he begged, LTK will also not allow TJS into WP. If he wants to play, SDP is the only viable choice. His clique from GE 2011 is still there so he has the necessary base to get back in. WP should be preparing to fight him and not VW/CSJ.

Added complication for WP is that for PE, TJS got the endorsement of Nicole Seah. For the Puggol East BE, she will be able to endorse him again since NSP is not contesting. I won't be surprised to see her helping actively in his campaign.

tanwahp said:
First, TJS is not likely to return to SDP. Second, I don't see him as a heavyweight. With TJS plus VW whom we are favourable towards plus Ang Yong Guan who appears in the papers and on TV nearly every day, the team could not muster past 40% of the votes. It will be silly for SDP to declare victory with 10% of the votes even though 10% for a third candidate is impressive.

Goh Meng Seng · Dec 29, 2012

You are saying "sneaky", I say WP people like you are more sneaky!

It is not potshot. It is a consistent stance against WP's "Two Party System" strategy, nothing personal.

Goh Meng Seng

tanwahp said:
Did it ever cross your mind that these supporters view it the exact opposite way. That you are taking potshots at WP and they disagree with you and that's why they are raising their disagreements?

You don't think that only you can criticize others and others cannot criticize you?

"Sneaky" might have been harsh, but a small example. You obviously don't measure WP in the same way as SDP or NSP. You will explain away a mistake made by NSP or SDP and if WP makes the same mistake, I am sure you will post in more than one thread.

I certainly find you open and upfront. But certainly not consistent.

captainxerox · Dec 29, 2012

aurvandil said:
TJS gave an interview some time back. He said his intention was to contest every feasible election. He sat out the Hougang BE to avoid losing to WP. It is unlikely he will sit out the PE BE, especially if all WP can produce is LL. Just like LTK won't take in KJ even if he begged, LTK will also not allow TJS into WP. If he wants to play, SDP is the only viable choice. His clique from GE 2011 is still there so he has the necessary base to get back in. WP should be preparing to fight him and not VW/CSJ.

Added complication for WP is that for PE, TJS got the endorsement of Nicole Seah. For the Puggol East BE, she will be able to endorse him again since NSP is not contesting. I won't be surprised to see her helping actively in his campaign.

then tjs is at crossroads. if he rejoins sdp to contest - he would be seen as flaky, suka suka leave and rejoin. if he contests as independent, the sdp votes would split between those who support him as the 'new' sdp, and those who support the post-cst sdp. if he stays on sidelines, he would get heckled for going back on his words. whatever decision he makes, it would impact his next pe, if he is serious abt staying at istana. if he has a shadow president office at expensive dhoby ghaut, i think his president aspiration still burns in him strongly!

tanwahp · Dec 29, 2012

aurvandil said:
TJS gave an interview some time back. He said his intention was to contest every feasible election. He sat out the Hougang BE to avoid losing to WP. It is unlikely he will sit out the PE BE, especially if all WP can produce is LL. Just like LTK won't take in KJ even if he begged, LTK will also not allow TJS into WP. If he wants to play, SDP is the only viable choice. His clique from GE 2011 is still there so he has the necessary base to get back in. WP should be preparing to fight him and not VW/CSJ.

Added complication for WP is that for PE, TJS got the endorsement of Nicole Seah. For the Puggol East BE, she will be able to endorse him again since NSP is not contesting. I won't be surprised to see her helping actively in his campaign.

Rejoining SDP is clearly not the option. I get the feeling he was surprised and disappointed by the results he got in the GE.

If TJS thinks highly of himself, he will run as an independent. He also has NSP as an option. Why SDP.

kukubird58 · Dec 29, 2012

aurvandil said:
TJS gave an interview some time back. He said his intention was to contest every feasible election. He sat out the Hougang BE to avoid losing to WP. It is unlikely he will sit out the PE BE, especially if all WP can produce is LL. Just like LTK won't take in KJ even if he begged, LTK will also not allow TJS into WP. If he wants to play, SDP is the only viable choice. His clique from GE 2011 is still there so he has the necessary base to get back in. WP should be preparing to fight him and not VW/CSJ.

Added complication for WP is that for PE, TJS got the endorsement of Nicole Seah. For the Puggol East BE, she will be able to endorse him again since NSP is not contesting. I won't be surprised to see her helping actively in his campaign.

hahaha....u are more kuku than i envisage...
how can a credible opps activist behave like tjs???
1. how can u want to contest every election(GE/BE/PE)......then u are basically a opportunist.....to win a ward, u have to work the ground....not just suka suka cum and go...
2. how can suka joins and leaves a party as u like to do what u want.....(assumming he rejoins sdp which i think is very unlikely)

You put your money where your mouth is.....
if TJS stand and is elected......i will retire from my nick from sbf.

tanwahp · Dec 29, 2012

Goh Meng Seng said:
You are saying "sneaky", I say WP people like you are more sneaky!

It is not potshot. It is a consistent stance against WP's "Two Party System" strategy, nothing personal.

Goh Meng Seng

You are hiding the evident. Another label on WP was sneakily pasted. I don't recall WP had a two party system idea. Only Chiam talked about a two party system. If anything, SDP sounds more like a two party system, given that it says it is the only and best opposition with ideas, credible alternatives, best candidates etc. Even WP never made claims like what SDP did. Yet I don't see you comparing fairly.

We were just finished talking about WP asking other parties to get lost like RP did, which you could not provide evidence for, and this.

Perception that you are taking on WP out of personal reasons is so widespread, there has to be a reason why.

Goh Meng Seng · Dec 29, 2012

You may have to go through the speeches and articles they have written on Hammer. You can even ask Eric Tan. :wink:

Goh Meng Seng

tanwahp said:
You are hiding the evident. Another label on WP was sneakily pasted. I don't recall WP had a two party system idea. Only Chiam talked about a two party system. If anything, SDP sounds more like a two party system, given that it says it is the only and best opposition with ideas, credible alternatives, best candidates etc. Even WP never made claims like what SDP did. Yet I don't see you comparing fairly.

We were just finished talking about WP asking other parties to get lost like RP did, which you could not provide evidence for, and this.

Perception that you are taking on WP out of personal reasons is so widespread, there has to be a reason why.

brocoli · Dec 29, 2012

aurvandil said:
TJS is the only king card WP will fear. The demos of PE is such that it is a relatively young constituiency. TJS will has big credentials and will come across as a lot more credible than LL. While WP won't lose deposit, the loss margin should be large enough for SDP to declare they have beaten WP.

TJS has zero credibility.... ZERO... he achieve nothing and will achieve nothing....

Punggol East is young and these young couples have more to lost than anybody else because they just start paying for their new flats....

SDP will not resonate with them with dumb fuck rental scheme and SDP dumb fuck health care scheme put the heaviest burden on young couples

as an aspiration gen Y yuppie, i can tell you SDP is obstructing my path to prosperity

aurvandil said:
TJS gave an interview some time back. He said his intention was to contest every feasible election. He sat out the Hougang BE to avoid losing to WP. It is unlikely he will sit out the PE BE, especially if all WP can produce is LL. Just like LTK won't take in KJ even if he begged, LTK will also not allow TJS into WP. If he wants to play, SDP is the only viable choice. His clique from GE 2011 is still there so he has the necessary base to get back in. WP should be preparing to fight him and not VW/CSJ.

Added complication for WP is that for PE, TJS got the endorsement of Nicole Seah. For the Puggol East BE, she will be able to endorse him again since NSP is not contesting. I won't be surprised to see her helping actively in his campaign.

the dumbest fucking post ever....

WP fear no 1, be it TJS or JBJ or George Yeo, 3 words "bring it on."

who the FUCK is Nicole Seah, she will gladly join WP if they will take her in..... this is way over her head....

Nicole Seah is nobody, an air head..... she will lose her deposit and her fucking pants if she go to Macpherson in a 1v1 with Rina Tin

brocoli · Dec 29, 2012

Goh Meng Seng said:
WP will not back off, not only for ego or long term strategic considerations, but also for the fact that WP wanted a real test of its party branding through a real 3 corner fight with either NSP or SDP so badly.

Mr Goh, I only respect you for actual field work experience unlike all KUKUBIRDs who have never knock on a single door, never actually consider nuance of policymaking... but you are too biased...

WP is not looking for a fight ... they will not shy away from one....

a multi corner fight is ultimately a waste of money and time....
if it has to happen, so be it...

even without it, WP is unlikely to win now.... and admittedly WP is probably too stretched to take on 1 more consituency....

and for all other parties, they are not ready to take on any consituency.... only you, the Chiams, Wilfred and Desmond Lim have any experience ...

no1 else have

kingrant · Dec 29, 2012

For heaven's sake, you are just voting in a single ward constituency. You are not voting in SDP to be the next govt.

Think national, act local.

brocoli said:
Punggol East is young and these young couples have more to lost than anybody else because they just start paying for their new flats....

SDP will not resonate with them with dumb fuck rental scheme and SDP dumb fuck health care scheme put the heaviest burden on young couples

as an aspiration gen Y yuppie, i can tell you SDP is obstructing my path to prosperity

brocoli · Dec 29, 2012

kingrant said:
For heaven's sake, you are just voting in a single ward constituency. You are not voting in SDP to be the next govt.

Think national, act local.

you overrate sinkie daftness... they are daft but not that daft

Fook Seng · Dec 29, 2012

tanwahp said:
Rejoining SDP is clearly not the option. I get the feeling he was surprised and disappointed by the results he got in the GE.

If TJS thinks highly of himself, he will run as an independent. He also has NSP as an option. Why SDP.

I don't think TJS will join the fray. The PE cost him quite a bit. Has he recovered from all his losses to embark on another adventure? In opposition politics, the candidate has to bear a fair amount of the cost of campaigning or am I wrong?

deepblue0911 · Dec 29, 2012

tanwahp said:
Perception that you are taking on WP out of personal reasons is so widespread, there has to be a reason why.

Let's not waste our breath on this guy GMS. He's definitely consistent in being biased and cowardly -- even my grandmother could tell that he has something against WP. Even the annoying skponggol is better than him -- at least skponggol never pretends to be neutral. GMS doesn't even have the courage to admit that he's not impartial.

Typical attention seeker with no substance. Wasting precious earthly resources. He should migrate to Mars.

wwabbit · Dec 29, 2012

While I agree that VW is a talented person that debates and speaks very well and would undoubtedly will be a great addition to parliament, I believe that he has zero chance of getting into parliament. Sure, if the voters choose their candidates based on talent, he would easily waltz in but the fact of the matter is voters look for other things in their candidate of choice, and VW doesn't have many of those things.

And before people start underrating party branding, let's not forget the results of GE2011 with the strongest SDP team against the weakest WP team:
Holland Bukit Timah GRC - Tan Jee Say, Ang Yong Guan, Vincent Wijeysingha, Michelle Lee - 39.92%
Moulmein Kallang GRC - Mohd Rahizan, Toh Hong Boon, L Somasundram, Frieda Chan - 41.45%

There are pros and cons to each potential candidate WP can field, but my gut feeling is that they would stick with Lee Li Lian. I think they will do the maths and stats and decide that even with the theoretical best candidate (YJJ), they cannot win the BE, so there is no point losing an NCMP seat for this. They just need someone decent enough that can carry the party's brand enough to crush all the other opposition parties. Ideally they want to score at least 40+% in the multicorner fight, however a VW vs LLL fight can see WP's share drop down to just under 30%. Still respectable, but not the kind of result you would expect from the minority party in a two-party system.

liongsum · Dec 29, 2012

wwabbit said:
While I agree that VW is a talented person that debates and speaks very well and would undoubtedly will be a great addition to parliament, I believe that he has zero chance of getting into parliament. Sure, if the voters choose their candidates based on talent, he would easily waltz in but the fact of the matter is voters look for other things in their candidate of choice, and VW doesn't have many of those things.

And before people start underrating party branding, let's not forget the results of GE2011 with the strongest SDP team against the weakest WP team:
Holland Bukit Timah GRC - Tan Jee Say, Ang Yong Guan, Vincent Wijeysingha, Michelle Lee - 39.92%
Moulmein Kallang GRC - Mohd Rahizan, Toh Hong Boon, L Somasundram, Frieda Chan - 41.45%

There are pros and cons to each potential candidate WP can field, but my gut feeling is that they would stick with Lee Li Lian. I think they will do the maths and stats and decide that even with the theoretical best candidate (YJJ), they cannot win the BE, so there is no point losing an NCMP seat for this. They just need someone decent enough that can carry the party's brand enough to crush all the other opposition parties. Ideally they want to score at least 40+% in the multicorner fight, however a VW vs LLL fight can see WP's share drop down to just under 30%. Still respectable, but not the kind of result you would expect from the minority party in a two-party system.

LLL is the "incumbent" oppo. She is the best bet. With the sex scandal of MPalmer to pull down the PAP, a few more percent to her is more than possible. Any oppo will be regarded as spoiler and work against them in 2016. CSJ's announcement might be a tactic to cajole a BE because SDP must know they have to battle the PAP as well as LLL's 40ish percent.

brocoli · Dec 30, 2012

liongsum said:
LLL is the "incumbent" oppo. She is the best bet. With the sex scandal of MPalmer to pull down the PAP, a few more percent to her is more than possible. Any oppo will be regarded as spoiler and work against them in 2016. CSJ's announcement might be a tactic to cajole a BE because SDP must know they have to battle the PAP as well as LLL's 40ish percent.

you overestimate the good will between the parties...

remember when GMS take credit for tricking PAP into thinking that they will be in MK... just t save his face ...

once GE is over, he start going all mad cow on MK

brocoli · Dec 30, 2012

liongsum said:
LLL is the "incumbent" oppo. She is the best bet. With the sex scandal of MPalmer to pull down the PAP, a few more percent to her is more than possible. Any oppo will be regarded as spoiler and work against them in 2016. CSJ's announcement might be a tactic to cajole a BE because SDP must know they have to battle the PAP as well as LLL's 40ish percent.

you overestimate the good will between the parties...

remember when GMS take credit for tricking PAP into thinking that they will be in MK... just t save his face ...

once GE is over, he start going all mad cow on MK

SockPuppet · Dec 30, 2012

kukubird58 said:
hahaha.....really cannot tahan...
my idol is doing his usual cockeral, deep anal-ysis, flip-flopping nonsense.
he has been proven wrong so many times yet behaved like nothing has happened...
let me give you the kukubird way direct style.....
if WP did not take part in PE SMC BE; i will retire my nick from sbf and stop posting.

Kukubird58,

this means you not going to vote PAP.

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