Leader Board - Punggol East By Elections

VW may just be the fix for now. Someone with vocal chords and fire in the belly and a wider bandwidth for issues in parliament, yet his Party continuing to do the legwork.

WP's vocal presence has been too quiet on other than bread-butter issues, which would not win votes from the English-educated middle class.

The WP is strong as a party but this time around, individual-wise, SDP seems to me to have the stronger candidate for the occasion.

Let there be alternatives, even with the Opposition bench. This way, we can go into GE2016 stronger.

WP should field someone who is not in parliament yet. SDP can sound out, but which of their so-called heavy weight wants to be weighed in punggol east, a place that they did not contest last year GE? This sdp heavy weight is taking a big risk as he is likely to get less votes than a decent but lower profile WP candidate, in addition to getting dagger stares in public for creating a three corner fight that benefits pap.

On the other hand, WP will not be seen as spoiler as WP did contest in this ward last year. And if there is 3 corner fight and PAP wins again, the public anger is going directly at the other opposition candidate(s).

Interesting. The younger demographics of the SMC could be quite favourable to SDP. On the other hand, some argue that married voters tend to be conservative and would likely vote PAP or WP. If hearsay is accurate, LLL has grassroots appeal and may not be the best person to represent such a young electorate. However in order for WP to argue that they are the incumbent and should have a first bite of the cherry, they would need to field LLL, which puts their chances of winning at slightly less than 50% even in a straight fight with an aged male PAP candidate. Internal forces within the WP will push the party to field one of their candidates unless LTK or Sylvia can hold sway. Some shrewd calculus is necessary but why would they even bother antagonizing these internal forces?

I say there will be no surprise to the candidate WP will be fielding.

scroobal said:

Prior to the Vasoo incident, I would have rated VW higher than JJ as VW is indeed a better candidate. Now however he has baggage which with time will overcome but expect the PAP to be relentless about it. JJ on the other hand has been very slippery where the PAP is conerned. They have not be able to nail him. One is practically dead.

Click to expand...

you are a FUCKING idiot and you learn nothing since you were praising TJS to the skies....

a better candidate mean nothing, nothing at all.... you are here sucking urself to ogasm thinking like an opp supporter... when you totally do not understand the slient majority pschye...

I suggest you go talk to some average folks instead of wanking yourself here...

you learn nothing since the Yaw saga... MR KUKUBIRD

aurvandil said:

WP will however likely back down if SDP fields TJS. If TJS stands, they will have to field JJ/GG to even have a chance of holding their own. Since these are already in Parliament, there is little incentive to do so. Hence better to let TJS have his shot. As a former PE candidate, TJS has credentials which PAP will have trouble matching.

Click to expand...

TJS is finished... he has done nothing since his PE run and that s clear for all to see...

WP will not back down to anybody now, not even if JBJ himself stand for by-election... you guys do not understand LOW at all....

you too learn nothing since the Yaw Saga

and GMS is right, JJ/GG are the last choices.. they will both lose rather than deny PAP a seat...

scroobal said:

It is between SDP and WP. It will depend on the candidates offered by both parties. If it is JJ, SDP will yield but will seek concession or promise for 2016. WP will agree to the promise or concession if VW is the candidate proposed. If JJ is not the candidate offered, and SDP offers VW, WP will yield. Both sides will walk away with great amount of goodwill. I don't see any other scenario being played.

Click to expand...

Mr KUKU bird

WP will not back down to anybody now.... if WP compromise now, they will lose their status as the top dog for horse trading in 2015...

WP will rather lose which they will likely lose anyway than to cede any thing...

WP can field a totally faceless new guy , and that guy will outscore VW

not mention even nobodies like choon yong or Hong Boon or even watson, will all outscore VW

there is no oppositon unity, no need for goodwill, only Realpolitik ...


and in case you didnt get it into your fucking numbskull YOU are a FUCKING idiot and you learn nothing ...


not sure which came 1st though

mojito said:

Interesting. The younger demographics of the SMC could be quite favourable to SDP. On the other hand, some argue that married voters tend to be conservative and would likely vote PAP or WP. If hearsay is accurate, LLL has grassroots appeal and may not be the best person to represent such a young electorate. However in order for WP to argue that they are the incumbent and should have a first bite of the cherry, they would need to field LLL, which puts their chances of winning at slightly less than 50% even in a straight fight with an aged male PAP candidate. Internal forces within the WP will push the party to field one of their candidates unless LTK or Sylvia can hold sway. Some shrewd calculus is necessary but why would they even bother antagonizing these internal forces?

Click to expand...

you know fuck about WP .... most of WP glassloot are fucking young.... most of them are so young, they can be grand kids of PAP glassloot ...

a typical glassloot is liane, the infamous angmolian ... young yuppie professional....

WP glassloot volunteers mostly cant speak dialects... some even stuggle with mandarin

LLL is actually english speaking... she actually not that goot mandarin... but you cant tell because she rehearse a lot for her emcee... because of this I am confident she can do what VW can do naturally in parliament through sheer hardwork and practice....

Choon Yong on the other hand is a natural with both language, but not that personable...

do you reaLLY THINK SHE she is a getai emcee, just because of all her HUAT AH!!! in rally.... you are bigger DUMB FUCK THAN I IMAGINE...

go out to the real world and so do some field work... stop with the fantasy politics on this forum...

Haha, never say never in politics.

But having said that, even if KJ is willing, WP may not want to go along with that, having him as their candidate.


Goh Meng Seng

GoldenDragon said:

Close to zero, bro. Quite certain KJ considers himself head and shoulders above LTK and company. KJ is similar to another. They think too highly of themselves.

Click to expand...

I do agree that JJ is unlikely. If it is not JJ and they don't have any hidden quality candidate, I don't think they will contest if VW is contesting. It does make sense to hold on JJ and go for East Coast.

Goh Meng Seng said:

Scroobal, you are really losing the plot here.

JJ is already in parliament and it really doesn't make any difference if he wins but it will put WP at risk by losing one seat in parliament if he lost! i.e. he will have to resign from NCMP to contest.

JJ is NOT an option at all.

Goh Meng Seng

Click to expand...

LTK is very seasoned cock and he will make the call. There is no one strong internally to pressure him on this. They have 6 seats and a bare cupboard. There is no internal pressure. I think Li Lian is quite sensible as well.

The only reason is that there are no quality candidates from the opposition. We can safely rule out Desmond and KJ. Ben Swee has no party and Li Lian did get 41 % so no much argument for Ben either.

mojito said:

. Internal forces within the WP will push the party to field one of their candidates unless LTK or Sylvia can hold sway. Some shrewd calculus is necessary but why would they even bother antagonizing these internal forces?

I say there will be no surprise to the candidate WP will be fielding.

Click to expand...

LTK is not going to allow a Chiam/SDP coup to develop. The bad blood is still strong on both sides even if KJ does not realise it.

Goh Meng Seng said:

Haha, never say never in politics.

But having said that, even if KJ is willing, WP may not want to go along with that, having him as their candidate.


Goh Meng Seng

Click to expand...

scroobal said:

I don't think they have any other candidate. Their recruitment process is so tight that even good candidates will not consider them as the process seems more important that the candidate.

Click to expand...

I strongly agree.

In fact I had seen it first hand, how WP rejected countless others to finally identified and recruited the one and only Mr I'm-always-right aka Mr I-always-have-the-last-word aka Mr Rabid GohMS.

As much as I hate to agree with that Brocoli, WP will not back off, not only for ego or long term strategic considerations, but also for the fact that WP wanted a real test of its party branding through a real 3 corner fight with either NSP or SDP so badly. In fact, right after GE2006, WP wanted to "draw a line between SDP" and itself, even up to the point of declaring that they will never commit and denounce Non-Violent-Action, which I have opposed vigorously against such move before I left the party. I have raised the possibility of the need to use NVA by WP if NEA enforced that "no hawking rule" strictly and that would affect the political outreach of selling party newspaper, Hammer. It was only after then, they dropped that subject.

WP wanted a 3 corner engagement with SDP because SDP has stepped into Sembawang GRC back in GE 2006 even though WP has declared its interests in Sembawang, though it did not intend to contest there. On top of that, WP wasn't happy with SDP people back then, attacking it as too weak or even in cohort with PAP in parliament. It is a matter of face value that caused the rife.

Thus, at this instance, WP has gotten what they have always wanted, a 3 corner fight with SDP. They have missed that chance to test its party branding in GE2011 because I pulled the scholar team out of MK, but now, they will be even more glad to have a fight with SDP in a focus area at Punggol East. The three corner fight between WP and SDP will be inevitable, assuming that SDP will contest.

Goh Meng Seng

scroobal said:

I do agree that JJ is unlikely. If it is not JJ and they don't have any hidden quality candidate, I don't think they will contest if VW is contesting. It does make sense to hold on JJ and go for East Coast.

Click to expand...

I do not agree with you totally here.

Even if WP have good high flyer potential candidate, most probably they won't want to contest when there is 3 or multi-corner fight. These people are mostly calculative and they won't want to waste money, time and effort to fight a battle that has no chance of winning but would most probably expose them and their career to scrutiny by PAP. They aren't people who will make sacrifices like that.

Thus naturally, WP will be left with second or even third tier candidates.

Lilian may have won 41% but that is during GE whereby sentiments flow with party branding, wow effect created by the whole opposition movement (not just WP) and such. Main attention may not be on the SMC alone, most likely on National level. By-elections is totally a different ball game because all focus are on this single contest alone and voters tend to scrutinize each and every candidates more thoroughly. In Hougang, LTK factor may play a very important role but not in a place like Punggol East, which PAP is the incumbent.

Thus, I would not be surprised if VW gets equal votes as Lilian or even more than her if it is pure three corner fight. Party Branding can only carry a candidate so far, individual strength and charisma will become the main focal point in such contest.

Goh Meng Seng

scroobal said:

LTK is very seasoned cock and he will make the call. There is no one strong internally to pressure him on this. They have 6 seats and a bare cupboard. There is no internal pressure. I think Li Lian is quite sensible as well.

The only reason is that there are no quality candidates from the opposition. We can safely rule out Desmond and KJ. Ben Swee has no party and Li Lian did get 41 % so no much argument for Ben either.

Click to expand...

Thanks for background.

LTK does not strike me as such an individual. If the contest is between VW and LLL, I don't think party branding comes into play. Unless it is JJ. After the decision on Eric, I am more convinced.

Goh Meng Seng said:

Thus, at this instance, WP has gotten what they have always wanted, a 3 corner fight with SDP. They have missed that chance to test its party branding in GE2011 because I pulled the scholar team out of MK, but now, they will be even more glad to have a fight with SDP in a focus area at Punggol East. The three corner fight between WP and SDP will be inevitable, assuming that SDP will contest.

Goh Meng Seng

Click to expand...

Goh Meng Seng said:

Party Branding can only carry a candidate so far, individual strength and charisma will become the main focal point in such contest.

Click to expand...

Yah man. Totally agree with you, just because you'd said so.

Just look at GE2006 and GE2011. Same WP branding but what a difference with, or rather without your individual errr strength and errrr charisma can make.

Many people mistaken me for my objection to WP's strategy as something personal. It is never personal.

WP has the better option of contesting in Marine Parade if it pulled back from MK and Punggol East to form a team to contest MP, but it chose to go into places with potential conflicts or 3 corner fights. The intention is pretty obvious; they wanted to test their party branding, at the same time, derail the development of NSP and SDA. It is a strategic move towards their idea of "Two Party System", which implicitly means to kill off other opposition parties or make them irrelevant. SDA fell for it, that's just too bad.

I have to persuade people to form NSP Marine Parade Team at the very last minute to prove a very important point to WP. Of course, it is also part of the strategy for the next GE. The rest is history.

Not many people notice that WP members, MPs and NCMPs, have kept repeating that "Two Party System" mantra for so long and neglect the fundamental implications of such direction. Thus, it is totally impossible, wishful thinking that WP would back off now, or even in future. If NSP and SPP are thinking that they would have more "bargaining power" next GE after conceded Punggol East nicely to WP, they will definitely be grossly disappointed.

The only bet they could depend on is for SDP to perform better than WP at PE by-elections, if not, they will have to expect massive 3 corner fights in the next GE. That's the hard truth.

Goh Meng Seng

scroobal said:

Thanks for background.

LTK does not strike me as such an individual. If the contest is between VW and LLL, I don't think party branding comes into play. Unless it is JJ. After the decision on Eric, I am more convinced.

Click to expand...

Fully agree with you here. The only thing which will hold WP back is if SDP throws a heavy weight which will beat them. If that happens, they lose leverage in 2016.

VW/CSJ will never do well in 3 corners because they are at the extremes of the spectrum. They can score respectable scores in straight fights but will get eaten alive if there is a moderate Opposition alternative in a 3 corner. There is even the chance they might lose deposit which will be hugely damaging to SDP.

TJS is the only king card WP will fear. The demos of PE is such that it is a relatively young constituiency. TJS will has big credentials and will come across as a lot more credible than LL. While WP won't lose deposit, the loss margin should be large enough for SDP to declare they have beaten WP.

Goh Meng Seng said:

As much as I hate to agree with that Brocoli, WP will not back off, not only for ego or long term strategic considerations, but also for the fact that WP wanted a real test of its party branding through a real 3 corner fight with either NSP or SDP so badly. In fact, right after GE2006, WP wanted to "draw a line between SDP" and itself, even up to the point of declaring that they will never commit and denounce Non-Violent-Action, which I have opposed vigorously against such move before I left the party. I have raised the possibility of the need to use NVA by WP if NEA enforced that "no hawking rule" strictly and that would affect the political outreach of selling party newspaper, Hammer. It was only after then, they dropped that subject.

WP wanted a 3 corner engagement with SDP because SDP has stepped into Sembawang GRC back in GE 2006 even though WP has declared its interests in Sembawang, though it did not intend to contest there. On top of that, WP wasn't happy with SDP people back then, attacking it as too weak or even in cohort with PAP in parliament. It is a matter of face value that caused the rife.

Thus, at this instance, WP has gotten what they have always wanted, a 3 corner fight with SDP. They have missed that chance to test its party branding in GE2011 because I pulled the scholar team out of MK, but now, they will be even more glad to have a fight with SDP in a focus area at Punggol East. The three corner fight between WP and SDP will be inevitable, assuming that SDP will contest.

Goh Meng Seng

Click to expand...

aurvandil said:

Here's my predicion.

WP will however likely back down if SDP fields TJS. If TJS stands, they will have to field JJ/GG to even have a chance of holding their own. Since these are already in Parliament, there is little incentive to do so. Hence better to let TJS have his shot. As a former PE candidate, TJS has credentials which PAP will have trouble matching.

Click to expand...

It is this same deluded, misguided thinking regarding TJS's credentials that led to the PE results.

Also, voters will reject a candidate with no focus. If TJS jumps from GE to PE and then to BE, he will be no different from GMS or Jufrie.

And if TJS's participation in this BE creates another spoiler result like the PE, his political career is finished. Voters are not very forgiving, at least towards the opposition. Case in point... CSJ is still branded a mole after all these years.

Goh Meng Seng said:

Many people mistaken me for my objection to WP's strategy as something personal. It is never personal.

Click to expand...

I say it's personal because it's one thing to worry about WP squeezing out smaller parties, it is another thing to prevent this from happening by being sneaky and duplicitous.

hahaha.....really cannot tahan...
my idol is doing his usual cockeral, deep anal-ysis, flip-flopping nonsense.
he has been proven wrong so many times yet behaved like nothing has happened...
let me give you the kukubird way direct style.....
if WP did not take part in PE SMC BE; i will retire my nick from sbf and stop posting.

There is nothing "sneaky" about me... WP people are the "Sneaky" ones, members and supporters hide behind clones taking potshots on people like me who disagree with their party. That is what "sneaky" is all about. And I am never "duplicitous". I have been consistent, open and upfront on my position and stance, unlike PAP IB as well as WP people.

Goh Meng Seng

tanwahp said:

I say it's personal because it's one thing to worry about WP squeezing out smaller parties, it is another thing to prevent this from happening by being sneaky and duplicitous.

Click to expand...