The 2012-13 Basketball Season Is Here

DENVER NUGGETS

Best case: A wildfire regular season culminates in a deep, anything-can-happen playoff run thanks to a dramatic defensive improvement.
Worst case: The Nuggets parlay a fascinating, fast-breaking regular season into an all-too-familiar first-round exit.


High entertainment meets efficient offensive sensibility in Denver, where the Nuggets have somehow added a form-fitting All-Star without surrendering all that much in return. Andre Iguodala gives George Karl a playmaker, shooter and finisher to round out every stage of the coach’s offense’s execution, but Iggy’s most compelling work may come on the defensive end. Much is expected of any elite defensive player who winds up on a subpar defensive team, and it may be a bit much to expect Iguodala’s arrival to trigger a widespread culture change.

That said, it’s not as if the Nuggets are — individually — poor defenders. Some lack experience and others lack instincts, but Denver is capable of being a far better defensive club than it was a season ago. Whether Iguodala can help capitalize on some of that potential is one of the season’s great mysteries, and it’s what separates a good-but-flawed Nuggets team from one that really challenges the West’s top three.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

Best case: A roster that makes a lot of sense on paper pans out in practice, with a better team defense than expected.
Worst case: Stephen Curry and Andrew Bogut collapse into one another to form a singularity of jumbled joints and DNPs.

Good health is the linchpin of every team’s performance, but the Warriors have left themselves particularly vulnerable to a bad break by leaning on two players with persistent injury troubles. That gives a thoughtfully constructed roster a considerable caveat; this theoretically looks like a team that should challenge for the eighth seed, but that potential would be deflated if Curry and/or Bogut were to miss considerable time. It almost seems unfair to play to that possibility, but with these two players the injury considerations are inescapable.

HOUSTON ROCKETS

Best case: Houston’s cast of prospects turn in strong individual performances while still turning in a miserable regular-season record.
Worst case: Jeremy Lin crumbles under the weight of a larger sample size and the Rockets’ rookies fail to capitalize on their recognizable promise.

The Rockets aren’t a team so much as a collection of wait-and-see talent. In that, team goals are almost irrelevant; what coach Kevin McHale does this season in order to establish a rebuilding foundation certainly matters, but less so than assessing and projecting the performance of all of Houston’s young players. But doing so will require an impossible balancing act; finding the minutes to properly gauge the play and progress of Patrick Patterson, Chandler Parsons, Terrence Jones, Jeremy Lamb, Royce White, Marcus Morris and Donatas Motiejunas (not to mention the recently signed Lin and Omer Asik) would likely require a mad-scientist turn to McHale’s rotation or a targeted manipulation of space-time. Neither seems particularly likely, meaning that the Rockets will undoubtedly have to prioritize and hope for the best.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

Best case: One of the league’s top offensive teams grows into a better defensive one and formally joins the contending ranks before being dropped in the Western Conference finals.
Worst case: The offense gets bogged down by ball-stopping on the wings, keeping a promising squad tethered to the Western Conference pack.

The Clippers manage to be highly successful in spite of their troubling lack of systemic creativity and productive organization — or put another way, successful in spite of coach Vinny Del Negro. That aside, having seen L.A. improve on its unimaginative half-court sets through bumps in execution alone, one can hold out hope that that repetition might hold similar benefit for the Clips’ needlessly below-average defense.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS

Best case: The new-look Lakers are a dynamo from Day 1, overtake the Thunder for the Western Conference crown and use precision and talent to overwhelm the Heat in the Finals. Pau Gasol improbably wins the Finals MVP.
Worst case: A schism in the offense makes L.A. very good but vulnerable (as opposed to overwhelmingly efficient), and a postseason slip downs the Lakers much sooner than expected.

Within the Lakers’ core four is a league-altering potential. With Steve Nash and Dwight Howard finding their perfect complements in one another, Kobe Bryant finally letting go and Gasol thriving with all pressure lifted from his shoulders, this team team will undoubtedly be effective, and likely outstanding. Miami is still the hands-down title favorite, and Oklahoma City remains elite in every sense of the word, but this grouping in L.A. has the potential to be the Heat without the hiccups — a more natural fit that requires far less in the way of concession and adjustment. We’re just peddling hypotheticals at this point, but this year could be something special … provided that L.A.’s short bench and heavy expectations don’t get in the way.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

Best case: Things in Memphis remain more or less the same.
Worst case: Things in Memphis remain more or less the same.

The Grizzlies have turned a few competitive playoff exits into a bit of a competitive stalemate. We know what this team is capable of, and few teams defend so effectively throughout their entire rotation. But without all that many ways to improve, the Grizzlies are stuck scrapping; they don’t have the pieces to make a real run at the West’s top three teams, but they are far too good to surrender ground to the ranks of playoff hopefuls. The Grizz are plumb in the ranks of the Clippers and Nuggets, but without the flash or rotational agility that give those teams their promise. It’s been a blast watching Memphis at its disruptive best these last few seasons, but this is the year where the Grizz come face-to-face with the blessing and curse of their own consistency.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

Best case: A deep and balanced team earns a playoff berth and takes a formidable first-round opponent all the way to Game 7.
Worst case: A once-promising season withers in the shadow of injury.

The Wolves may not have as many injury concerns as Golden State, but between the ailments of Kevin Love, Ricky Rubio and Brandon Roy, there’s quite a bit up in the air. Yet that alone can’t totally disparage a talented group in a beautiful offensive system. Andrei Kirilenko, Nikola Pekovic, Derrick Williams and Alexey Shved will give Rick Adelman a sturdy safety net in case the injury scenarios get a bit more complicated, and that group should keep Minnesota within striking distance of a playoff spot as it waits for its stars to heal.

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS

Best case: Anthony Davis seemingly learns the ins and outs of NBA defense overnight, and Austin Rivers and Eric Gordon find a way to play together effectively.
Worst case: Gordon sulks his way to a trade demand that isn’t granted and puts a damper on a hopeful rebuild.

Honestly, it’s hard to concoct all that many scenarios in which this year’s Hornets disappoint. Davis seems to be as sure as sure things get, and with so many holes in New Orleans’ mid-rebuild rotation, there’s no expectation whatsoever of immediate playoff contention. The Hornets simply get to play out a freebie season — they’ll compete, they’ll lose plenty, they’ll get minutes for their top prospects and they’ll test their best players in various roles. Barring injury, where could things really go wrong?

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

Best case: The Thunder pick up right where they left off a year ago and storm to the title behind their own organic improvement.
Worst case: OKC suffers another painful year of coming up just short.

The Lakers are flashy and new, but the Thunder won’t give up the Western Conference crown easily. This team is excellent, and with another year under the collective belt of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden (latest news to follow) and Serge Ibaka, the range of likely result is both slim and promising. Oklahoma City is going to be awfully good, but will that be enough to make it more than a highly successful runner-up?

PHOENIX SUNS

Best case: One of the Western Conference’s also-rans is as bad as it needs to be to really improve.
Worst case: The cozy mediocrity of near-playoff contention.

Given this team’s multidirectional construction, things have been flipped on their head a bit. The Suns saw fit to invest some considerable coin in Goran Dragic and an interesting group of capable players, but they lack the individual star power to really project any long-term viability. The best possible result would be a humbling season; Phoenix needs to get worse before it gets better, and as presently constructed could be in a position to delude itself out of that possibility.

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS

Best case: Damian Lillard not only proves to be an elite point guard prospect but also immediately begins to tease out the potential of Nicolas Batum.
Worst case: Injuries across the West inflate the Blazers’ record despite their obvious lack of chemistry, and that kills Portland’s chance at a high lottery pick.

The Blazers have taken a hard fall over the last few seasons, and their current arrangement of talent doesn’t exactly make for the most straightforward rebuilding plan. It’s entirely possible that the trio of LaMarcus Aldridge, Batum and Lillard won’t be intact when Portland makes the playoffs again a few years down the line. With so much money tied up in their current core, the Blazers may wind up with little choice but to explore all possible trade options for the sake of rounding out their rotation.

That makes it all the more important that Portland stumbles — or lucks — into another good draft pick this season, if only because another affordable asset could propel this team down the rebuilding path. Whether the Blazers wind up using that pick or dangling it as trade bait is almost irrelevant. This team is simply in need of an extra push without much financial flexibility to obtain it, and a lottery pick could provide a relatively painless way out of the gutter.

SACRAMENTO KINGS

Best case: The Kings’ haphazard collection of prospects somehow falls into a natural order.
Worst case: DeMarcus Cousins, Tyreke Evans, Thomas Robinson and Marcus Thornton appear wholly incompatible and force Geoff Petrie and Keith Smart to prioritize assets along a stylistic divide.

Years of high draft picks have left Sacramento all dressed up with nowhere to go. The Kings have players of conflicting styles who need the ball to be effective; positional redundancies; a bona fide enigma in Evans; and a jumbled offensive system that does this weird roster no favors. Smart will do his best to sort through this mess of talent (or talented mess?), but it’s hard to imagine what a successful end game even looks like with so many complicated elements in play.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS

Best case: Tiago Splitter carves out a spot as Tim Duncan’s proper frontcourt counterpart and shores up the Spurs’ defensive rotations in the process.
Worst case: Manu Ginobili and Duncan show their age, and the Spurs’ depth can only get them as far as a second-round collapse.

The Spurs have returned the exact same core for another round, and given their uncharacteristic slip in the Western Conference finals, they were right to do so. A prolific offense and mediocre defense were enough to give San Antonio a proper shot at the title a year ago, and one shouldn’t expect any drop-off from a rotation this deep and a system this solid.

Of course, merely repeating their previous performance likely won’t be enough to make it through a more perilous Western Conference, and it surely wouldn’t be enough to take down the much-improved Heat in a long-shot NBA Finals. A team of veterans will have to contort their way into a few new tricks if this season is to go down any differently, but what more can the Spurs ask for from their aging stars and role players?

UTAH JAZZ

Best case: The Jazz find a productive solution to their frontcourt logjam by year’s end and ride out another solid season with a decisive first-round loss.
Worst case: A prime playoff opportunity goes by the wayside, leaving the Jazz with the empty consolation of the 14th pick in the draft.

Utah appears to have finally added the three-point shooting necessary to accentuate its low-post play, and it’s just in time for the team’s low-block staples to enter a season of uncertainty. Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap were terrific last season, but with both set to be free agents next summer — and Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter waiting backstage — the Jazz will have to make some tough decisions about their core and future viability. The plot thickens with Utah’s established place in a dogfight for the West’s bottom two playoff seeds. Could this team really risk another postseason run for the sake of dealing one of its bigs before the deadline?

LATEST TRADE NEWS


Thunder ship Harden to Rockets


Unable to work out an extension with James Harden, the Oklahoma City Thunder traded the Sixth Man of the Year to the Houston Rockets on Saturday night, breaking up the young core of the Western Conference champions.

The Thunder acquired guards Kevin Martin and Jeremy Lamb, two first-round picks and a second-round pick in the surprising deal. Oklahoma City also sent center Cole Aldrich and forwards Daequan Cook and Lazar Hayward to Houston.

The Oct. 31 deadline to extend Harden or allow him to become a restricted free agent next July had been hanging over the Thunder from the moment they reported to training camp.

"We wanted to sign James to an extension, but at the end of the day, these situations have to work for all those involved. Our ownership group again showed their commitment to the organization with several significant offers," Thunder general manager Sam Presti said in a statement.

"We were unable to reach a mutual agreement, and therefore executed a trade that capitalized on the opportunity to bring in a player of Kevin's caliber, a young talent like Jeremy and draft picks, which will be important to our organizational goal of a sustainable team."

The small-market Thunder had already signed Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka to long-term deals, and apparently realized Harden was going to want a bigger salary than they would offer.

The Thunder got back a good scorer in Martin, who has averaged 18.4 points in his eight NBA seasons, and a promising young player in Lamb, the No. 12 pick in the draft who helped Connecticut win the 2011 NCAA championship. He led Houston's summer league team in scoring with 20 points per game.

But Harden was a huge part of Oklahoma City's success and had said he might even be open to sacrifice dollars in order to stay with the Thunder. But they've been unwilling to climb into the luxury tax, which will only become harsher under the new collective bargaining agreement.

Harden averaged 16.8 points and 3.7 assists last season, and joined Durant and Westbrook on the U.S. men's Olympic team. He struggled badly in Oklahoma City's loss to Miami in the NBA Finals, but the Thunder felt good about their chances of getting back there with another year of experience for their young stars, all 24 or younger.

However, Yahoo Sports reported that Harden turned down a four-year contract worth about $52 million, and the Thunder moved quickly to trade him after that.

The Rockets rebuilt their roster in the offseason and hoped to land Dwight Howard. Houston traded or released just about every veteran except Martin, who was in the final year of his contract and due about $13 million this season.

Martin averaged 17.1 points and 2.8 assists last season, his eighth in the NBA and third in Houston. He missed the last 26 games last season with a shoulder injury, though he also developed a rift with Houston coach Kevin McHale late in the season.

The Rockets have until Wednesday to sign Harden to the extension that Oklahoma City couldn't.

"While I never like having to send out quality players like Kevin Martin and Jeremy Lamb, this trade gives us a chance to make an immediate impact on the future of our franchise moving forward," Rockets owner Leslie Alexander said.

"James Harden was part of Team USA's gold medal team at the London Olympics and is one of the most skilled shooting guards in the NBA."

New Rockets point guard Jeremy Lin also chimed in about the trade on Twitter.

"Really sad to see Kmart and JLamb go," Lin wrote. "...both class acts and great teammates. Welcome Harden, Cook, Aldrich and Hayward to Houston!!"

Houston collected draft picks while it was making a flurry of deals, part of a package to offer Orlando for Howard. The Rockets traded point guard Kyle Lowry to Toronto for a lottery-protected first-round pick, one of Oklahoma City's acquisitions on Saturday night.

The other first-round pick was acquired by Houston when it traded Jordan Hill to the Los Angeles Lakers last March. The second-round pick came to the Rockets in a deal that sent guard Courtney Lee to Boston.

cnnsi.com

Best-case, worst-case scenarios for every Eastern Conference team


ATLANTA HAWKS

Best-case scenario: New general manager Danny Ferry wins Executive of the Year for dumping hordes of future salary obligations in the offseason and still managing to assemble a new-look roster that nabs home-court advantage in the playoffs as the East’s No. 4 seed.
Worst-case scenario: Josh Smith winds up more distracted than motivated by his contract year, Devin Harris struggles to put it all together again and the Hawks are fighting just to make the postseason.

Ferry seemed to reach an important conclusion early in his tenure: Al Horford was the only indispensable player on last year’s roster. The plan, then: break up the core four and rebuild on the fly. Plan executed, at least so far, with Joe Johnson sent to the Brooklyn Nets (goodbye, $89 million over four years) and Marvin Williams sent to Utah (so long, $16.8 million over two years), leaving a major decision on Smith looming. To replace the cap cloggers, Ferry assembled a solid cast of veterans (Devin Harris, Kyle Korver, Anthony Morrow) who are all on expiring contracts and then signed proven scorer Lou Williams to a three-year, mid-level deal. Smart, savvy stuff that leaves Atlanta with a solid playoff team this year and a roster with loads of flexibility heading into 2013 free agency.

BOSTON CELTICS

Best case: Rajon Rondo takes another leap forward, the veterans stay healthy enough to hang on for the ride and Doc Rivers works his locker-room ego-juggling magic to grind out an Eastern Conference finals victory over the Miami Heat. Revenge! (And then a Finals appearance.)
Worst case: Kevin Garnett, 36, can’t stay healthy during the playoffs, leaving Boston unable to replace the 20/10 nights that were a staple of the 2012 postseason and vulnerable to a first- or second-round upset.

There’s so much to like about the Celtics’ offseason. They addressed their biggest need — athleticism and defense on the wing — by adding Courtney Lee and Jeff Green. They replaced their biggest departure, Ray Allen, with a scorer who can create his own shot in Jason Terry. They bought low on Darko Milicic, an extra frontcourt body capable of giving six fouls, and they will get the supremely talented Avery Bradley back from a shoulder injury. On paper, it’s a deeper, younger, quicker and more versatile squad than the group that pushed the Heat to seven games in the East finals. If Garnett’s abilities meaningfully decline because of age, or he gets bitten by the injury bug, the moves will all be for naught. Cross your fingers.

BROOKLYN NETS

Best case: The Nets ride a powerful home-court advantage at the new Barclays Center straight to a top-four seed, incorporating Brook Lopez back into the fold after his injury problems last year and profiting from Deron Williams’ ability to balance his own scoring with enough distribution to keep Joe Johnson happy.
Worst case: Avery Johnson never finds a defensive formula and Lopez proves far less valuable than his new four-year, $60 million max-level contract would suggest. Brooklyn finishes as the No. 7 or No. 8 seed, stuck with an impossible first-round matchup.

The Nets had their boldest summer in recent memory, signing eye-popping deal after eye-popping deal to ensure they would have sufficient star power to capture the Big Apple’s hearts and minds in their first season since moving from New Jersey. That commitment gives Brooklyn a solid starting five, plus a number of capable reserves to fill out the rotation. After a lackluster season and a half with the Nets, this is a reputation-making season for Williams, who no longer has any excuses for losing. Management gave him everything he could possibly ask for — a $100 million contract, an All-Star backcourt partner in Johnson, a veteran defender in Gerald Wallace, a scoring big man in Lopez — and it’s time for him to deliver.

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS

Best case: No. 1 pick in the 2013 NBA draft.
Worst case: No. 6 pick in the 2013 NBA draft.

GM Rich Cho is playing bizarro basketball, whereby wins are losses and losses are wins. Cho is searching for a young core to build around. In Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, the No. 2 pick this year, he has a promising keeper. In Bismack Biyombo, the No. 7 pick last year, he has a project who could make it. In Kemba Walker, the No. 9 pick last year, he has a guard too flawed to do the things he needs done. After that, Cho only has the hope that comes from knowing a high lottery pick is a virtual certainty. Last season, the Bobcats set an NBA record for worst winning percentage. They will, unavoidably, be terrible again, and their season will ultimately be judged by how favorably the lottery Ping-Pong balls fall this time around. Hopefully, it’s a better result than last season, when the season-long suffering didn’t pay off with Anthony Davis.

CHICAGO BULLS

Best case: Franchise point guard Derrick Rose returns from knee surgery with just enough time to get sharp before the postseason. Though not exactly his old self, Rose’s will and multidimensional offensive game lift the Bulls (who avoid Miami early in the postseason) to back-to-back playoff-series victories and a rematch of the 2011 East finals with the Heat.
Worst case: Rose takes longer than expected to return, the offseason stripping of the Bench Mob adds up and the remaining rotation members buckle under coach Tom Thibodeau’s constant demands. Chicago is eliminated in the first round for the second straight season.

The Chicago Bulls are Derrick Rose and Derrick Rose is the Chicago Bulls, especially this year after the offseason losses of Omer Asik, C.J. Watson, Ronnie Brewer and John Lucas III. Chicago is banking on Kirk Hinrich holding down the fort until Rose can get right; that’s asking a lot. Chicago is once again banking on good health and gigantic minutes from Luol Deng; that’s asking a lot, considering that he spent the summer playing in the Olympics rather than addressing a troublesome wrist injury. Chicago is banking on a bounce-back year from Rip Hamilton; that’s asking a lot, considering he is 34, doesn’t have Rose to create for him and has seen his numbers plummet over the last two seasons. The list goes on. The Bulls need Joakim Noah back at top form and Carlos Boozer to perform to the level of his contract; at least one of those things almost certainly won’t happen.

Rose is the panacea for this laundry list of questions and he’s never been a bigger question during his NBA career than he is right now. For Chicago diehards, this season is all about looking out over Lake Michigan and contemplating the long-term benefits rather than agonizing over the short-term hiccups. With expectations properly lowered, Rose just might get the opportunity to play the hero.