Just for the sake of fantasy, if all those 49,851 voters who voted against the PAP in Ang Mo Kio GRC, and all those 54,601 voters who voted against the PAP in Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC (Teo Chee Hean's GRC), both of which are the only GRCs with more than 100,000 PAP voters each:
http://www.ge.sg/results/grc/
had been living in the following 9 GRCs (43 seats) instead, which had its opposition parties win at least 35% of the votes per GRC at last year's GE:
Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC (47,205 votes; 43.07%)
Chua Chu Kang GRC (56,885 votes; 38.80%)
East Coast GRC (49,429 votes; 45.17%)
Holland-Bukit Timah GRC (32,406 votes; 39.92%)
Marine Parade GRC (59,926 votes; 43.36%)
Moulmein-Kallang GRC (31,773 votes; 41.45%)
Nee Soon GRC (57,523 votes; 41.60%)
Sembawang GRC (47,605 votes; 36.10%)
Tampines GRC (54,381 votes; 42.78%)
the PAP could have LOST the 2011 GE, and possibly lose the 2016 GE too!
The reason, as many of you might have guessed by now, is very simple:
In order for the opposition party in Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC to win 51% of the votes at last year's GE, it needed:
47,205 / 43.07 X 51 = 55,896 (or 55,896 - 47,205 = 8,691 MORE) votes
In order for the opposition party in Chua Chu Kang GRC to win 51% of the votes at last year's GE, it needed:
56,885 / 38.8 X 51 = 74,772 (or 74,772 - 56,885 = 17,887 MORE) votes
In order for the opposition party in East Coast GRC to win 51% of the votes at last year's GE, it needed:
49,429 / 45.17 X 51 = 55,809 (or 55,809 - 49,429 = 6,380 MORE) votes
In order for the opposition party in Holland-Bukit Timah GRC to win 51% of the votes at last year's GE, it needed:
32,406 / 39.92 X 51 = 41,400 (or 41,400 - 32,406 = 8,994 MORE) votes
In order for the opposition party in Marine Parade GRC to win 51% of the votes at last year's GE, it needed:
59,926 / 43.36 X 51 = 70,485 (or 70,485 - 59,926 = 10,559 MORE) votes
In order for the opposition party in Moulmein-Kallang GRC to win 51% of the votes at last year's GE, it needed:
31,773 / 41.45 X 51 = 39,093 (or 39,093 - 31,773 = 7,320 MORE) votes
In order for the opposition party in Nee Soon GRC to win 51% of the votes at last year's GE, it needed:
57,523 / 41.60 X 51 = 70,521 (or 70,521 - 57,523 = 12,998 MORE) votes
In order for the opposition party in Sembawang GRC to win 51% of the votes at last year's GE, it needed:
47,605 / 36.1 X 51 = 67,254 (or 67,254 - 47,605 = 19,649 MORE) votes
In order for the opposition party in Tampines GRC to win 51% of the votes at last year's GE, it needed:
54,381 / 42.78 X 51 = 64,830 (or 64,830 - 54,381 = 10,449 MORE) votes
Total ADDITIONAL votes needed by the opposition parties in those 9 GRCs
= 8,691 + 17,887 + 6,380 + 8,994 + 10,559 + 7,320 + 12,998 + 19,649 + 10,449
= 102,927 votes
Total OPPOSITION votes in Lee Hsien Loong's Ang Mo Kio GRC and Teo Chee Hean's Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC (just 2 GRCs)
= 49,851 + 54,601
= 104,452
So as you all can see, the total opposition votes in those 2 pro-PAP GRCs, which are also the most pro-PAP GRCs (in terms of number of votes, i.e. the only 2 GRCs with more than 100,000 PAP voters each), would have been more than enough for the PAP to have LOST last year's GE if all those 104,452 voters had been living in those 9 GRCs which had at least 35% of the votes per GRC going to the Opposition; that's a total of 43 seats from those 9 GRCs alone!
Plus Hougang's 1 seat and Aljunied's 5 seats, that's a total of 49 (or 49 / 87 = 56.3% of the) Parliamentary seats for the Opposition, who would then be able to form a Coalition government (or Cabinet of Ministers) with ZERO PAP MPs!
http://www.ge.sg/results/grc/
had been living in the following 9 GRCs (43 seats) instead, which had its opposition parties win at least 35% of the votes per GRC at last year's GE:
Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC (47,205 votes; 43.07%)
Chua Chu Kang GRC (56,885 votes; 38.80%)
East Coast GRC (49,429 votes; 45.17%)
Holland-Bukit Timah GRC (32,406 votes; 39.92%)
Marine Parade GRC (59,926 votes; 43.36%)
Moulmein-Kallang GRC (31,773 votes; 41.45%)
Nee Soon GRC (57,523 votes; 41.60%)
Sembawang GRC (47,605 votes; 36.10%)
Tampines GRC (54,381 votes; 42.78%)
the PAP could have LOST the 2011 GE, and possibly lose the 2016 GE too!
The reason, as many of you might have guessed by now, is very simple:
In order for the opposition party in Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC to win 51% of the votes at last year's GE, it needed:
47,205 / 43.07 X 51 = 55,896 (or 55,896 - 47,205 = 8,691 MORE) votes
In order for the opposition party in Chua Chu Kang GRC to win 51% of the votes at last year's GE, it needed:
56,885 / 38.8 X 51 = 74,772 (or 74,772 - 56,885 = 17,887 MORE) votes
In order for the opposition party in East Coast GRC to win 51% of the votes at last year's GE, it needed:
49,429 / 45.17 X 51 = 55,809 (or 55,809 - 49,429 = 6,380 MORE) votes
In order for the opposition party in Holland-Bukit Timah GRC to win 51% of the votes at last year's GE, it needed:
32,406 / 39.92 X 51 = 41,400 (or 41,400 - 32,406 = 8,994 MORE) votes
In order for the opposition party in Marine Parade GRC to win 51% of the votes at last year's GE, it needed:
59,926 / 43.36 X 51 = 70,485 (or 70,485 - 59,926 = 10,559 MORE) votes
In order for the opposition party in Moulmein-Kallang GRC to win 51% of the votes at last year's GE, it needed:
31,773 / 41.45 X 51 = 39,093 (or 39,093 - 31,773 = 7,320 MORE) votes
In order for the opposition party in Nee Soon GRC to win 51% of the votes at last year's GE, it needed:
57,523 / 41.60 X 51 = 70,521 (or 70,521 - 57,523 = 12,998 MORE) votes
In order for the opposition party in Sembawang GRC to win 51% of the votes at last year's GE, it needed:
47,605 / 36.1 X 51 = 67,254 (or 67,254 - 47,605 = 19,649 MORE) votes
In order for the opposition party in Tampines GRC to win 51% of the votes at last year's GE, it needed:
54,381 / 42.78 X 51 = 64,830 (or 64,830 - 54,381 = 10,449 MORE) votes
Total ADDITIONAL votes needed by the opposition parties in those 9 GRCs
= 8,691 + 17,887 + 6,380 + 8,994 + 10,559 + 7,320 + 12,998 + 19,649 + 10,449
= 102,927 votes
Total OPPOSITION votes in Lee Hsien Loong's Ang Mo Kio GRC and Teo Chee Hean's Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC (just 2 GRCs)
= 49,851 + 54,601
= 104,452
So as you all can see, the total opposition votes in those 2 pro-PAP GRCs, which are also the most pro-PAP GRCs (in terms of number of votes, i.e. the only 2 GRCs with more than 100,000 PAP voters each), would have been more than enough for the PAP to have LOST last year's GE if all those 104,452 voters had been living in those 9 GRCs which had at least 35% of the votes per GRC going to the Opposition; that's a total of 43 seats from those 9 GRCs alone!
Plus Hougang's 1 seat and Aljunied's 5 seats, that's a total of 49 (or 49 / 87 = 56.3% of the) Parliamentary seats for the Opposition, who would then be able to form a Coalition government (or Cabinet of Ministers) with ZERO PAP MPs!
