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BE or referendum on reform?

mrmonkey

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Loyal
WP is going to win. Think that is a no-brainer.

Hougang as a 20 years long opposition bastion, is unlikely to be be retaken by the PAP with it's rather lame no-issue/smear-based campaign. There is simply no enough incentives to change drastically, no push or pull to move voters strongly either way; thus they will likely vote according to habit. In any case, the BE has been largely a non-event so far, helped by the less than charismatic candidates and maybe a little election fatigue as well.

The PAP knows that. But the PAP will be still nervously looking at the results - will their margins be eroded or enhanced?

An increase in vote share can be interpreted as an early endorsement of LHL's post-election reforms and vice-versa. He needs the vote of confidence to push through further changes - better margins would strengthen his hand. Likewise, a comprehensive defeat could encourage challenges and dissent within the PAP.

So the election may be less about Png or Desmond.....it's all about LHL.
 
B

Baluku

Guest
it is so easy to kelong in singapore elections.

oppositions agents dont actually follow the ballot boxes to the counting centres.

it is so easy to so a switcheroos!
 
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mrmonkey

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Loyal
More at stake here than the MIW are letting on....


Singapore holds keenly-watched by-election

BBC


More than 20,000 residents of Hougang constituency in the island's northeast are eligible to vote.

They will be choosing between the ruling People's Action Party (PAP) candidate Desmond Choo and Png Eng Huat of the Worker's Party (WP).

The ward has been represented by the opposition for more than 20 years.

This is a rarity in the island nation, which has been led by a strong majority PAP government for most of the last five decades since the party first came to power in 1959.

The ruling party has cast this as a local election and its candidate has focused on improvements to the residential estate.

But the opposition party maintains the poll is more than that, saying issues faced by voters in Hougang are the same as for the rest of the nation, such as a widening income gap and the need for more diverse voices in parliament.

Some observers say the poll is being seen as an indication of whether the promises of change that the prime minister made after the general election - such as engaging the people more - have taken root.

'Best candidate'
The two candidates and their supporters spent the past week campaigning, apart from a ''cooling off day'' on Friday when they were not allowed to canvass for votes.

The former MP, Yaw Shin Leong, was expelled by the WP on 15 February over allegations of an extramarital affair.


Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong urged voters to elect the 'best candidate'
Mr Yaw had won the seat over the PAP's Mr Choo in the general election last year, with 64.8% of the votes.

The last poll in 2011 was seen as a landmark election for the city state with significant gains for the opposition, which took six of the 87 seats - their best performance since Singapore's independence in 1965.

Although the ruling party won the great majority of seats, the party's share of the popular vote slipped to around 60% - a drop from about 67% in 2006.

After months of speculation on whether a by-election would be called, President Tony Tan issued the writ of election on 9 May.

Following that, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong posted a statement on his recently set-up Facebook page.

''The by-election will give Hougang residents the chance to elect a new MP to serve them. I encourage Hougang voters to use this opportunity wisely, to elect the best candidate with commitment and integrity," he said.
 

mrmonkey

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Singaporeans Vote In By-Election As Lee Seeks To Regain Support


By Shamim Adam - 2012-05-25T16:00:01Z

Bloomberg News

Singaporeans vote in a by-election today that will test whether Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong is winning back support after the ruling party’s poorest performance at polls last year.

About 23,000 people, or 1 percent of the electorate, are eligible to vote in the Hougang district in northeastern Singapore today before polls close at 8 p.m. The seat has been held by the opposition Workers’ Party since 1991 and is vacant after Yaw Shin Leong, who won 64.8 percent of votes in 2011, was expelled from his party in February for what it called “indiscretions in his private life.”

The People’s Action Party was returned to power in May last year with the smallest margin of victory since independence in 1965 and record opposition gains, prompting Lee to pledge his party will change the way it governs. While candidates have campaigned on local issues such as improving public housing, a survey of 50 residents by Today newspaper this month showed a majority of residents are looking at national policies, including the cost of living and the influx of foreigners.

“The by-election is seen as a report card on how the government has fared in the past year,” said Kit Wei Zheng, a Singapore-based economist at Citigroup Inc.

The People’s Action Party candidate is Desmond Choo, 34, a trade union official and former police officer. The Workers’ Party nominated 50-year-old businessman Png Eng Huat.

While today’s poll will be a barometer of support for government policies, it won’t alter the balance in parliament, where Lee’s party has 81 of the 87 seats. The People’s Action Party has governed the country since 1959.

Immigration Rules

The government is under pressure to placate voters without disrupting the arrival of talent and labor that helped forge the only advanced economy in Southeast Asia. In the past year, Lee’s government has implemented stricter immigration policies and cut ministerial pay to appease voters.

The administration has raised property taxes for non- Singaporeans and speeded up construction of housing. Lee also made permanent a program to provide cash, utility rebates and medical funds for the elderly and low-income households. The government is subsidizing bus companies’ purchases of new vehicles to reduce crowding on public transport and adding hospital beds.

More than a third of the 5.2 million population is made up of foreigners and expatriate permanent residents, and efforts to reduce the inflow of workers since 2010 have had little effect. The foreign workforce has grown 7.5 percent annually over the last two years, Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam said in February as he imposed new rules on the percentage of overseas labor that companies are allowed.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shamim Adam in Singapore at [email protected]
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Stephanie Phang at [email protected]
 

Seee3

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Perhaps it is better to called this one a CE (coincidental election). Coincidences just keep happening, as if there is divine interference. At the very onset, it was just some sexual cases involving prominent civil servants, nothing political. With a sudden swing, Yaw was in hot soup instead.

Soon after the election date was announced, a lawyer from the minority race volunteered to help in Hougang, another minority chap was appointed to assist DC’s campaigning and to top it all, a member of WP from the minority race quitted WP expressing unhappiness over certain racial comments – 3 events in a row involving the minority, wow!

Hougang is a Chinese heartland. Png, coincidentally cannot speak Mandarin well, was found to be the best choice. He went on to create miracle by passing shit through the orifice on his face rather than his ass. This triggered more shits flowing from all corners. If these events are not coincidental, I don’t know what is.

Ultimately, TR posted the photograph for no other reason than pure coincident. As usual, many responded. However, what really surprised all was the counter-response, especially from a seasoned blogger, a cyber animal with lots of past experiences on harsh treatment. The vengeful reaction and the massive coverage by the local presses are natural and coincidental.

Assuming that 35% are DC’s fans and 35% are for Png, and 30% in the middle-ground. With divinity aiding, it would be disappointing if DC cannot swing over at least 1 third of the 30% middle-ground(i.e. 10%). So DC should get at least 45% but it would be difficult to cross 48%.
 

zhihau

Super Moderator
SuperMod
Asset
Assuming that 35% are DC’s fans and 35% are for Png, and 30% in the middle-ground. With divinity aiding, it would be disappointing if DC cannot swing over at least 1 third of the 30% middle-ground(i.e. 10%). So DC should get at least 45% but it would be difficult to cross 48%.

bro,

IMHO, the demography of the electorate in Hougang SMC would be more likely to be 30%:35%:35% in terms of PAP:moderates:WP. DC ought to be over the sky if he can cross the 40% mark and it can be considered as a blow to the WP.

looking at all the cock-ups from SMRT, the CNB/SCDF scandal, Principal scandal vs YSL scandal. couple that with the hustling from the rallies, the margin should remain at the same level as last year's GE, or present itself as more favorable towards WP.
 

zhihau

Super Moderator
SuperMod
Asset
seems like DC got 40% and WP certainly got hit quite hard on the YSL scandal & with Png's foot in mouth. voters are nonetheless rooted to WP at 60%. looks like a long and winding road for the oppositions to take down more GRCs in the next GE... or is it? :*::*::*:
 

jw5

Moderator
Moderator
Loyal
seems like DC got 40% and WP certainly got hit quite hard on the YSL scandal & with Png's foot in mouth. voters are nonetheless rooted to WP at 60%. looks like a long and winding road for the oppositions to take down more GRCs in the next GE... or is it? :*::*::*:

I think it will depend on the quality of the future candidates.
Png seems to me an honest enough chap, simple man but perhaps a little simple minded as well.
I'm convinced his reply about being taken out of the ballot was more a bumbling answer than a dishonest one.
He had told several people he didn't want to be considered and was himself convinced that he was out.
To him, the vote probabably didn't count.
His answer was not the best, perhaps a little face saving, but it was not dishonest. He should have said "I asked not to be considered."

He will be honest, hardworking, carry out his responsibilites to the residents. His speeches and ideas are not going to be ground breaking.
He's probably on par with some of those that have thrown their hats into the ring in the past from WP, NSP, SPP, etc.

To get more GRCs, better quality candidates with credentials comparable to CSM will have to step forward.
 

Seee3

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
bro,

IMHO, the demography of the electorate in Hougang SMC would be more likely to be 30%:35%:35% in terms of PAP:moderates:WP. DC ought to be over the sky if he can cross the 40% mark and it can be considered as a blow to the WP.

looking at all the cock-ups from SMRT, the CNB/SCDF scandal, Principal scandal vs YSL scandal. couple that with the hustling from the rallies, the margin should remain at the same level as last year's GE, or present itself as more favorable towards WP.
Your assessment of the moderates at 35% is much more accurate than mine. So with the planning and backing of the full machinery for DC they only manage to swing less than 1/3 of the moderates.
 

zhihau

Super Moderator
SuperMod
Asset
To get more GRCs, better quality candidates with credentials comparable to CSM will have to step forward.

bro,
agree that Png appeared honest, but still a foot in mouth incident, no worries, Png walks out unscathed but DPM Teo had walked out muddy. me think any GRC he goes to might be shaky, maybe he can go head the Aljunied campaign and take it over from LBH? :biggrin::biggrin::biggrin:
 

jw5

Moderator
Moderator
Loyal
bro,
agree that Png appeared honest, but still a foot in mouth incident, no worries, Png walks out unscathed but DPM Teo had walked out muddy. me think any GRC he goes to might be shaky, maybe he can go head the Aljunied campaign and take it over from LBH? :biggrin::biggrin::biggrin:

hehehe, Png started speaking in mandarin but couldn't continue because he claimed he was "too excited". :biggrin:
changed to english and now speaking in mandarin hesitatingly, hehehe.

No way TCH will be risked in Aljunied.
My prediction is that LHL will eventually send a second tier office holder to try and win it back, of course he will claim that he
is sending a big gun. He will tell the second tier guy that this will be his chance to become first tier. Leaving LBH there is like
saying it's a lost cause.
My prediction is that the second tier guy's name will rhyme with suck. :biggrin:
 

zhihau

Super Moderator
SuperMod
Asset
My prediction is that the second tier guy's name will rhyme with suck. :biggrin:

heheh...
me concur with your predictions, and it looks like we can start predicting the Aljunied GRC dream team all over again :p:p:p
 

zhihau

Super Moderator
SuperMod
Asset
So with the planning and backing of the full machinery for DC they only manage to swing less than 1/3 of the moderates.

bro,
if we extrapolate these figures onto the national scale, we could be looking at 2 more GRCs changing hands by next GE
 

deepblue0911

Alfrescian
Loyal
hehehe, Png started speaking in mandarin but couldn't continue because he claimed he was "too excited". :biggrin: changed to english and now speaking in mandarin hesitatingly, hehehe.

Do you think Png has capability issues? Don't want to be judgemental but if you can't even express yourself properly, can you really engage the residents, understand their needs and convey your concerns and solutions to them effectively? His anxiety attacks after the results are out is understandable and I don't think people will take it to heart. But his handling of the media throughout the campaign is not convincing. Do you think this is reflective of his abilities (to serve HG people)?
 

Fook Seng

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
jw5 said:
My prediction is that the second tier guy's name will rhyme with suck. :biggrin:

Maybe by that time the problem with the network is such that it will be a no brainer to put him there.
 

Kid278

Alfrescian
Loyal
Do you think Png has capability issues? Don't want to be judgemental but if you can't even express yourself properly, can you really engage the residents, understand their needs and convey your concerns and solutions to them effectively? His anxiety attacks after the results are out is understandable and I don't think people will take it to heart. But his handling of the media throughout the campaign is not convincing. Do you think this is reflective of his abilities (to serve HG people)?

Well, dont be judgmental then, give yourself the benefit of the doubt. No one is born a politician, it's not easy to handle the media that is not just looking for something to report or publish but something to destroy. A freudian slip and it will turn into a nightmare.
 

deepblue0911

Alfrescian
Loyal
Well, dont be judgmental then, give yourself the benefit of the doubt. No one is born a politician, it's not easy to handle the media that is not just looking for something to report or publish but something to destroy. A freudian slip and it will turn into a nightmare.

Agree that I should not be judgemental.

In any case, time will tell. Png will have the next 3-4 years to show who he is and what he can and will do for the people of HG. The work is cut out for him.
 

Fook Seng

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
deepblue0911 said:
Do you think Png has capability issues? Don't want to be judgemental but if you can't even express yourself properly, can you really engage the residents, understand their needs and convey your concerns and solutions to them effectively? His anxiety attacks after the results are out is understandable and I don't think people will take it to heart. But his handling of the media throughout the campaign is not convincing. Do you think this is reflective of his abilities (to serve HG people)?

No, I don't think Png would have a problem communicating with constituents on a one to one basis. Public speaking and his PR is what he needs to improve upon. This can be trained and improved with practice. Even PAP ministers have this problem but they don't show it because of special grooming for their political career. Public Speaking and Public Relation is something WP and other opposition parties should invest in to score those few vital points.

As to whether it shows lacking in capability. Again No. It could be just a left brain, right brain thing. Many 'O' level students have to take the Polytechnic route instead of joining a University course because of language proficiency and many subjects at that level are tied to language proficiency. But these students are no worse off in their maths and sciences where analytical proficiency is needed to fair well.
 
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jw5

Moderator
Moderator
Loyal
heheh...
me concur with your predictions, and it looks like we can start predicting the Aljunied GRC dream team all over again :p:p:p

My prediction for Aljunied GRC dreamteam:

the very yandao Teo Ser Luck and his team of "shi da mei ren" MPs:
-- Lee Bee Wah
-- Irene Ng
-- Fatimah Lateef
-- Denise Phua
 

jw5

Moderator
Moderator
Loyal
Do you think Png has capability issues? Don't want to be judgemental but if you can't even express yourself properly, can you really engage the residents, understand their needs and convey your concerns and solutions to them effectively? His anxiety attacks after the results are out is understandable and I don't think people will take it to heart. But his handling of the media throughout the campaign is not convincing. Do you think this is reflective of his abilities (to serve HG people)?

Capability issues to serve and help the residents - should not be a problem. He has the required logical thinking and lanuguage skills to be able to hear their problems, communicate with them and help them write letters of appeal or assistance, etc.

But if u are expecting charismatic, hard hitting and earth shattering speeches from him in parliament or exciting, innovative, breakthrough ideas on how to make the lives of Singaporeans better, u are likely to be disappointed.

He will just do his job, carry out his responsibilities, play his part in the larger scheme of WP and the opposition.
 
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