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Exchange Rates for RM

FHBH12

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MAS surprise easing sends Singapore dollar reeling

The Singapore dollar touched its weakest level since March 29 after the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) unexpectedly eased its exchange-rate based monetary policy on Thursday.

By Tang See Kit, Channel NewsAsia
Posted 14 Apr 2016 13:09 Updated 14 Apr 2016 13:52

SINGAPORE: The Singapore dollar tumbled 1 per cent on Thursday (Apr 14) after the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) surprised markets by easing monetary policy.

In a statement, the MAS said it will set the rate of appreciation of the Singapore dollar’s nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) policy band at zero percent, marking a shift from its previous policy stance of a “modest and gradual" appreciation of the local dollar.

Prior to the half-yearly monetary policy decision, a majority of economists had expected the central bank to leave its monetary policy stance unchanged. The MAS last moved to a neutral stance on the Sing dollar in October 2008.

Thursday's move hit the local currency, which widened losses to 1.03 per cent by lunchtime. The Singapore dollar fell to 1.3645 against the US dollar, its weakest level since March 29.

“The easing move was a complete surprise,” Khoon Goh, senior FX strategist at ANZ Singapore, told Channel NewsAsia. “It is a clear indication that MAS feels that the currency is overvalued, relative to the outlook of the Singapore economy.”

HSBC’s economist Joseph Incalcaterra agreed, noting that the policy decision and language from the central bank’s policy statement were “unambiguously dovish”.

“We have warned of a dovish outcome, but the (statement’s) cautiousness exceeded our expectations, notably the part where MAS said core inflation is now likely to fall below 2 per cent on average over the medium term,” Mr Incalcaterra said.

Also weighing on the Sing dollar was renewed strength in the US dollar, according to Macquarie Bank’s Nizam Idris, which posted its biggest one-day gain in more than a month against a basket of six major currencies.

Moving forward, most analysts that Channel NewsAsia spoke to expect the Sing dollar to weaken further, particularly against the likes of the Chinese yuan, Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar.

ANZ’s Mr Goh reckons that the S$NEER has further room for declines, and “if markets were to start pricing in further easing, the S$NEER could test the lower bound of the policy band”. ANZ revised its forecast for the Sing dollar in March, and expects the US dollar to fetch 1.45 Sing by end-2015.

Meanwhile, Maybank analysts believe that the central bank’s decision will fuel volatility in the local dollar and lift domestic interest rates higher on the back of expectations of further easing to come. On that, Maybank revised its forecasts for the local currency on Thursday: it now expects the Sing dollar to touch 1.3550 versus the greenback by the second quarter, and 1.3750 and 1.3850 by the third and fourth quarters, respectively.

There are also analysts who see Thursday’s slide in the Sing dollar as a mere knee-jerk reaction.

“No more appreciation bias means that the S$NEER is likely to stay very near the midpoint, plus or minus 0.5 per cent," Mr Idris, managing director and head of strategy, fixed income and currencies at Macquarie Bank, said. "That means in the long run, the Sing dollar will be a boring trade."

He added: “It will remain pretty quiet around the policy midpoint unless there’s a view that the MAS is about to make a bigger change, which I don’t think it’s the case for now given that MAS didn't change any of its macro forecasts.”

- CNA/sk

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/mas-surprise-easing-sends/2695020.html
 

snowbird

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I hope all the property buyers had hedged enough RM when it was 3.1. it's a whopping 8.7 % difference!

When it was 3.1, the sales had plateau and was sluggish so not many had that advantage.
Most would have bought during 2013, 2014 period and early 2015, average about 2.5, a whopping 12% loss!
 

Tekkun

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When it was 3.1, the sales had plateau and was sluggish so not many had that advantage.
Most would have bought during 2013, 2014 period and early 2015, average about 2.5, a whopping 12% loss!

Not loss but lesser gain through weak forex. Totally different.
And this apply only when one pay cash in full. If it is bank loans or if the unit is under construction as it is now, it doesn't really make much difference.
 

xebay11

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Loss or gain it only materialize the day u decide to sell.
Otherwise it makes no diff.

Huh? who teach you this? The currency fluctuation also affects your instalment payments and total payment. if SGD continue to weaken and RM appreciate, if you do not hedge correctly, end of the day the losses are real even if you do not sell!!!

No wonder you less than Bukit Timah Hill.
 

xebay11

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Investor888

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Heng I change all my piggy banks savings into Ringgit when it was RM 3 plus. now still paying off my Malaysia suppliers in RM 3 exchange rate.. will feel the pain when it drop to RM 2.5
 

jayeho

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Heng I change all my piggy banks savings into Ringgit when it was RM 3 plus. now still paying off my Malaysia suppliers in RM 3 exchange rate.. will feel the pain when it drop to RM 2.5

changed S$10K when it was 1:RM2.8+ when it just started dropping, did not change much when reached 1:RM3, thinking it will drop further 1:RM3.1, always wrong timing...:mad:
 

snowbird

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A big issue had just cropped up regarding the scandalous 1MDB.
First, they had paid a whopping US$3.2 billions to a bogus off-shore company instead of their JV partner, with the approval of the PM, and this bogus off-shore company was closed last year (what a joke)!
And today, the JV partner had accused 1MDB's failure to meet obligations including to pay US$1.1 billion plus interest and was now in default.

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/gov...malaysias-1mdb-in-default-on-june-rescue-deal

Some say this default may cause investors to sell Malaysia’s currency and bonds and damage the country’s reputation in global financial markets.
1:3 again very soon?
 

Investor888

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Lets hope! But oil prices are slowly going up. What do u think will happen to their oil industry in Desaru and ringgit when oil price shoot up to $120 again?


A big issue had just cropped up regarding the scandalous 1MDB.
First, they had paid a whopping US$3.2 billions to a bogus off-shore company instead of their JV partner, with the approval of the PM, and this bogus off-shore company was closed last year (what a joke)!
And today, the JV partner had accused 1MDB's failure to meet obligations including to pay US$1.1 billion plus interest and was now in default.

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/gov...malaysias-1mdb-in-default-on-june-rescue-deal

Some say this default may cause investors to sell Malaysia’s currency and bonds and damage the country’s reputation in global financial markets.
1:3 again very soon?
 

Tekkun

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Lets hope! But oil prices are slowly going up. What do u think will happen to their oil industry in Desaru and ringgit when oil price shoot up to $120 again?

It will never happen as DOHA talks failed to reach consensus. Saudi and Iran will keep pumping to sink Russian and US economy. Malaysia will be the collateral damage. Max oil prices would be about USD50 in the short term. But the best time to build anything is during bad times as prices would be at the lowest. The best time to buy anything is also during bad times but you must have holding power for the next 3 years. Agri land on main roads looked attractive now. But sorry....Singaporeans not welcomed here to buy land. :biggrin:

Singapore exports slowed down in march. My guess is S$ will hold or come down as MAS look for ways to remain competitive.
It is still RM 2.85 to S1.00 at least for the time being.
 
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ECboy

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It will never happen as DOHA talks failed to reach consensus. Saudi and Iran will keep pumping to sink Russian and US economy. Malaysia will be the collateral damage. Max oil prices would be about USD50 in the short term. But the best time to build anything is during bad times as prices would be at the lowest. The best time to buy anything is also during bad times but you must have holding power for the next 3 years. Agri land on main roads looked attractive now. But sorry....Singaporeans not welcomed here to buy land. :biggrin:

Singapore exports slowed down in march. My guess is S$ will hold or come down as MAS look for ways to remain competitive.
It is still RM 2.85 to S1.00 at least for the time being.

Too much supply in the market la, no way prices are going up now. Iran is like FU to USA & Russia.
 

FHBH12

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Oil price bounce boosts ringgit; 1MDB woes push up credit costs
APR 19, 201611:22 AM

[KUALA LUMPUR] Malaysia's ringgit snapped a three-day loss as Brent crude stabilized following a selloff on Monday sparked by the failure among oil producers to cap production.

The currency rose the most in more than two weeks as Brent recovered to near US$43 a barrel, quelling concern that the oil exporter's revenue will deteriorate after prices collapsed as much as 7 per cent. The weekend talks in Doha ended without an agreement to freeze output to address a global supply glut, which pushed the commodity to a 12-year low in January.

The ringgit strengthened 0.7 per cent to 3.9012 per dollar as of 10 am in Kuala Lumpur, after falling 0.6 per cent on Monday, prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg show. It's the best performing Asian emerging-market currency this year with a 10 per cent advance.

While sentiment for the ringgit improved, the cost to insure the nation's bonds increased in New York to the highest this month. 1Malaysia Development Bhd failed to make a payment of more than US$1 billion in connection with a loan made last year by Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund, according to a London stock exchange filing.

That means 1MDB and Malaysia's finance ministry "are in default," Abu Dhabi's International Petroleum Investment Co said. The ministry said in a statement it "will continue to honor all of its outstanding commitments." Five-year credit-default swaps climbed 11 basis points to 163, according to CMA prices. The contracts rose to 247 in September, the highest in more than six years. ING Groep NV said fair value for the swaps is around 125.

"Malaysian CDS was one of the financial assets that re-priced too much in 2015, in our view," Singapore-based Asia research head Tim Condon wrote in a research note.

Malaysia's benchmark stock index bucked a regional rally and 10-year government bonds rose. The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index dropped for a second day, headed for its lowest close in more than two weeks. The yield on notes due in 2025 declined three basis points to 3.76 per cent, Bursa Malaysia prices show.

BLOOMBERG

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/gov...boosts-ringgit-1mdb-woes-push-up-credit-costs
 

snowbird

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Oil price does affect the RM but now, the immediate concern is the 1MDB debacle!
Because of the 1MDB's default on Monday, 1MDB’s dollar bond prices slumped on the same day!
1MDB may need to come up with US$1 billion immediately which may means panic buying of USD simply because 1MDB had already paid US$3.5 billion to a bogus company has no money at all.
Who will lend US$1 billion to 1MDB now?
 

sgtsk

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Oil price does affect the RM but now, the immediate concern is the 1MDB debacle!
Because of the 1MDB's default on Monday, 1MDB’s dollar bond prices slumped on the same day!
1MDB may need to come up with US$1 billion immediately which may means panic buying of USD simply because 1MDB had already paid US$3.5 billion to a bogus company has no money at all.
Who will lend US$1 billion to 1MDB now?

Remaining balances in Najib's accounts could be used to pay off the amount due.
 
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